I know that this is way too early to speculate especially after the thumping we took 2 weeks ago but Public Policy Polling (who has a pretty good track record at polling this cycle) just released their Obama Virginia baseline poll.
Obama approval 50-45. He leads every Republican challenger by at least 5 points.
The internals are interesting as they are estimating a 78% white turnout which is likely too high. Though they have a 55% female sample which is likely too high as well.
The bottom line is that if these numbers are somewhat accurate Obama is in decent shape in VA. Though we can’t take a win here for granted the fact that he is at his low point and isn’t being thumped here is nothing short of impressive. Things change a lot but this is very encouraging. If Obama wins VA it is very hard to see how he does not win re-election.