Which Congressional Candidates Got Their Votes Out Yesterday?

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    This graph shows the dropoff from 2008 votes, by congressional district, for John McCain and Barack Obama and the 2010 votes for Republican and Democratic congressional candidates, respectively. For instance, John McCain received 164,874 votes in the 5th CD in 2008 and Robert Hurt received 119,243

    votes in 2010, which means there was a 28% dropoff.  For comparison, also in the 5th CD, Barack Obama received 157,362 votes in 2008, while Tom Perriello received 110,568 votes in 2010, for a 30% dropoff. Now, let’s rank the candidates from lowest to highest dropoff, as a way to measure how effectively they got out their votes yesterday compared to the vote for president in 2008. Also, keep in mind that Republicans were more energized this year than in 2008, but obviously that’s not the only factor at work here, given Rick Boucher’s and Tom Perriello’s excellent GOTV numbers.

    1. Rick Boucher: -20%

    2. Frank Wolf: -27%

    3. Robert Hurt: -28%

    4. Randy Forbes: -29%

    4. Keith Fimian: -29%

    6. Tom Perriello: -30%

    6. Rob Wittman: -30%

    8. Bob Goodlatte: -31%

    9. Eric Cantor: -33%

    10. Scott Rigell: -36%

    11. Chuck Smith: -38%

    12. Morgan Griffith: -40%

    13. Gerry Connolly: -47%

    14. Bobby Scott: -50%

    14. Jim Moran: -50%

    16. Glenn Nye: -51%

    17. Rick Waugh: -55%

    18. Wynne LeGrow: -59%

    18. Krystal Ball: -59%

    20. Jeff Barnett: -65%

    • VA Blogger

      Undoubtedly many Boucher voters voted for McCain in 2008; Boucher’s number is so low because he outperformed Obama.

    • The Donkey

      If this is true, how in the world did Boucher lose in the 9th?

    • pontoon

      I completed a similar examination of voter turnout in the 5th district by locality.  I based my comparison on Perriello 2008 v. Perriello 2010 because Tom outperformed Pres. Obama in the 5th district in 2008. Overall turnout dropoff was 31%. It seems Tom fared very well in turnout dropoff in the cities of Danville and Charlottesville.  The counties of Albermarle, Appomattox, Buckingham, Charlotte, Cumberland, Halifax, Nelson and Pittsylvania also did very well getting their vote out with turnout drop off of 29% or less.  However, turnout dropoff was 33% to 49% in 8 localities. For Tom to have won the election, turnout dropoff would have had to been 25% or less across the board, which no locality achieved. I don’t believe that we did a good job  making the connection that the US Chamber of Commerce had lobbied congress and gotten tax breaks for the companies who shipped our jobs overseas.  We couldn’t get folks to understand the connection that trade agreements like NAFTA, which the Chamber have supported, are the reason the economic backbone of the 5th has disappeared.  Perhaps if we could have, we could have gotten to that 25% dropoff and won.