Based on this and other indications, it is clear that Governor Bob McDonnell wants to be the GOP 2012 vice presidential pick. If this actually comes to pass, what are the implications for George Allen, Bill Bolling, Ken Cuccinelli, Tim Kaine, Terry McAuliffe, and Mark Warner?
First, let’s look at the scenario where McDonnell is actually elected Vice President of the United states.
1. Bill Bolling would be the big winner, as this is the only way he conceivably gets to be Governor.
2. Mark Warner would be the next biggest winner, since this would take McDonnell off the 2014 grid.
3. Terry McAuliffe would catch a break, as the Virginia cycle since 1977 has always had the Governor coming from the party losing the White House.
4. Ken Cuccinelli would be the big loser, as challenging an incumbent governor for the Republican nomination has proven to be lose-lose; even if you win, you lose the general.
5. Finally, since this scenario has the GOP as strong, McDonnell would provide good coattails to George Allen, which of course would hurt Tim Kaine’s run for Senate in 2012.
Now, what happens if McDonnell is the next Sarah Palin, part of a losing Republican presidential ticket in 2012?
1. Ken Cuccinelli would be the big winner, since he then gets to cream Bolling.
2. Mark Warner would be the next big winner, since McDonnell would then run for President in 2016, skipping the 2014 U.S. Senate race.
3. George Allen would gain, since we have to assume McDonnell will help the GOP in Virginia in 2012 even if they lose the state.
4. Terry McAuliffe would be a winner, since his best shot in 2013 is against Cuccinelli.
5. Tim Kaine would get hurt in his run for Senate in 2012, but not as badly as in the McDonnell becomes Vice President scenario.
What are the odds of Bob McDonnell being nominated for VEEP? Better than you think. The GOP needs its 2012 presidential nominee to be super strong in the Midwest. That logically suggests a Southern VEEP, as there are no big swing states in the West or North. If Marco Rubio of Florida says no, then McDonnell becomes the Dixie favorite under the theory that he can deliver Virginia.