Home 2012 races Virginia Draft Senate Movements: Sunday Evening Status Report

Virginia Draft Senate Movements: Sunday Evening Status Report


As you can see, Tom Perriello has a big lead on Tim Kaine, with Rick Boucher and Gerry Connolly trailing far behind in third and fourth place. Glenn Nye has announced that he’s not interested in seeking the U.S. Senate seat. I’m not sure what Bobby Scott’s status is, but I don’t see any “draft” pages for him (or for anyone else, but let me know if I missed something here). Also, note that the Draft Tom Perriello petition has 562 signatures.

P.S. Tom’s lead among the grassroots is even more impressive, given the corporate media’s overwhelming bias towards Tim Kaine, as well as Kaine’s far higher name ID.

UPDATE: I corrected a mistake in Gerry Connolly’s Twitter followers number.

  • How on earth does @draftconnolly have 2/3 as many Twitter followers as @draftperriello?

  • Joel McDonald

    He’d have an instant base of volunteer and monetary support from grassroots activists that make make an even greater impact than they were able to with only campaigning in the 5th. With Obama at the top of the ticket, turnout should heavily favor a Democrat, and especially one seen to fight for Obama’s priorities. Yes, Perriello may have lost his reelection race, but he lost because he was progressive. Kaine may not have lost his own election, but we lost the House under his leadership at the DNC.

    I’m fearing a rift between the establishment and the grassroots though. If grassroots has decided the 2009 primary, the winner would have been McAuliffe or Moran. The establishment swung Deeds as a safe choice. Everyone else knew the 2009 general campaign was pretty much a loser when primary results were in. (Of course, an argument could be made that there wasn’t anything we could do to win the gubernatorial race in 2009…but I think we could have done much better with either McAuliffe or Moran as the general candidate.)

    Question is, would a primary be beneficial or harmful to Virginia Democrats

    Not entirely decided on how I think this should play out, but the surge in support for Perriello is not surprising. I think there are a lot of advantages he has over others being drafted.

  • 2004: 43.00% Kerry, 53.91% Bush

    2004: 36.28% Weed, 63.68% Goode

    2005: 49.59% Kaine, 48.42% Kilgore

    2006: 45.15% Webb, 53.79% Allen

    2006: 39.93% Weed, 59.11% Goode

    2008: 48.29% Obama, 50.59% McCain

    2008: 50.08% Perriello, 49.85% Goode

    2009: 38.56% Deeds, 61.34% McDonnell

    2010: 46.98% Perriello, 50.81% Hurt

    Note that in VA-05, Perriello did better losing in 2010 than Webb did winning statewide in 2006. He does needs some statewide exposure, of course.

  • Mallsus2

    I just have a hard time really getting behind Kaine after he stacked the pollution board to favor the Wise coal plant. I’ll vote for him but my effort will be focused on Obama if Kaine is nominated

  • pontoon

    primary?  I’m not sure I follow the reasoning.  Are we worried because the Democratic candidates will crucify each other in a primary campaign or Republican crossover?

    If it’s Republican crossover, won’t they be having a primary at the same time and need to vote for their own candidate?  I admit there may be some Republicans who would crossover and vote in the Democratic primary, but I wouldn’t think it would be that many since they will need to choose their own nominee.  Or am I just being naive?

  • If Periello has an “impressive” lead “among the grassroots,” and if Periello is leading in every other measure, you can be assured that the DPVA under the leadership of Brian Kaplan — ooops, meant Brian Moran — will pick Kaine.

    I have faith in the DPVA’s ability to screw up a one-horse parade.