Detailed State Senate District Data

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    Note: this diary was originally posted by TXObserver over at SwingStateProject, and I felt that because it was relevant I would cross-post it here. TXObserver compiled Obama/McCain numbers for the senate districts under the Howell plan (the official text of the plan only provides McDonnell/Deeds numbers). The diary contains a .drf file of the districts that can be used in Dave’s Redistricting App. For those that don’t know, Dave’s Redistricting App is a free web-based application that allows you to draw your own redistricting maps, complete with census data. -drobertson

    There was a request for the .drf file that I created for the Howell proposal of the VA State Senate, so why not make a diary.

    For the .drf file visit: http://www.fileserve.com/file/…

    Caution: the Howell plan splits precincts, which I don’t think Dave’s App allows for. On some districts, it’s a judgement call, like on the borders of the 15th & 20th districts or the 7th & 14th districts. The non-ability to split precincts is also why districts will have the variances in population.

    And yes, the numbers correspond to the Howell numbers, i.e. District 1 below is District 1 in the Howell plan.

    1

    58% Obama/42% McCain

    55% White, 31% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  59% White, 29% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian

    Avg. 2000-20009  52% Dem/48% Rep

    2

    70% Obama/30% McCain

    38% White, 51% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  41% White, 50% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  65% Dem/35% Rep

    3

    38% Obama/62% McCain

    81% White, 13% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP  82% White, 12% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  39% Dem/62% Rep

    4

    39% Obama/61% McCain

    77% White, 15% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  78% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/62% Rep

    5

    74% Obama/26% McCain

    35% White, 55% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  38% White, 53% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  69% Dem/32% Rep

    6

    57% Obama/43% McCain

    60% White, 26% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  62% White, 25% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  54% Dem/46% Rep

    7

    52% Obama/48% McCain

    55% White, 28% Black, 8% Hispanic, 7% Asian

    VAP  59% White, 24% Black, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  52% Dem/48% Rep

    8

    63% Obama/37% McCain

    53% White, 30% Black, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian

    VAP  57% White, 28% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  56% Dem/44% Rep

    9

    75% Obama/25% McCain

    38% White, 55% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP  41% White, 52% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  71% Dem/29% Rep

    10

    39% Obama/61% McCain

    76% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  78% White, 16% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  37% Dem/63% Rep

    11

    42% Obama/58% McCain

    68% White, 25% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  70% White, 25% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  40% Dem/60% Rep

    12

    41% Obama/59% McCain

    77% White, 11% Black, 4% Hispanic, 7% Asian

    VAP  78% White, 11% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  39% Dem/61% Rep

    13

    43% Obama/57% McCain

    66% White, 21% Black, 4% Hispanic, 6% Asian

    VAP  68% White, 21% Black, 4% Hispanic, 6% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  43% Dem/57% Rep

    14

    37% Obama/63% McCain

    81% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/62% Rep

    15

    37% Obama/64% McCain

    74% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  76% White, 21% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  37% Dem/63% Rep

    16

    72% Obama/29% McCain

    35% White, 53% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP  38% White, 52% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  64% Dem/37% Rep

    17

    51% Obama/49% McCain

    70% White, 17% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP  72% White, 17% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  47% Dem/53% Rep

    18

    64% Obama/36% McCain

    42% White, 52% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  44% White, 51% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  61% Dem/39% Rep

    19

    37% Obama/63% McCain

    91% White, 4% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  92% White, 4% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  39% Dem/61% Rep

    20

    49% Obama/51% McCain

    66% White, 28% black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  69% White, 27% Black, 3% Hispanic

    Avg. 2000-2009  49% Dem/52% Rep

    21

    57% Obama/43% McCain

    73% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

    VAP  76% White, 15% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  55% Dem/45% Rep

    22

    51% Obama/49% McCain

    65% White, 9% Black, 10% Hispanic, 13% Asian

    VAP  67% White, 9% Black, 9% Hispanic, 13% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  46% Dem/54% Rep

    23

    37% Obama/63% McCain

    80% White, 14% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP  82% White, 14% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  39% Dem/61% Rep

    24

    36% Obama/64% McCain

    88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  89% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  35% Dem/66% Rep

    25

    58% Obama/43% McCain

    81% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  82% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  56% Dem/44% Rep

    26

    41% Obama/59% McCain

    86% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  88% White, 3% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/63% Rep

    27

    43% Obama/57% McCain

    83% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    VAP   85% White, 6% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  40% Dem/60% Rep

    28

    44% Obama/56% McCain

    71% White, 16% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    VAP  73% White, 16% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  41% Dem/59% Rep

    29

    61% Obama/39% McCain

    41% White, 20% Black, 28% Hispanic, 7% Asian

    VAP  45% White, 20% Black, 25% Hispanic, 8% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  52% Dem/48% Rep

    30

    66% Obama/34% McCain

    62% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian

    VAP  64% White, 12% Black, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  64% Dem/36% Rep

    31

    62% Obama/39% McCain

    68% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian

    VAP  69% White, 5% Black, 11% Hispanic, 12% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  60% Dem/40% Rep

    32

    61% Obama/39% McCain

    68% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 14% Asian

    VAP  71% White, 5% Black, 8% Hispanic, 14% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  59% Dem/41% Rep

    33

    59% Obama/41% McCain

    48% White, 9% Black, 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian

    VAP  51% White, 9% Black, 19% Hispanic, 19% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  52% Dem/48% Rep

    34

    57% Obama/43% McCain

    61% White, 5% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian

    VAP  63% White, 5% Black, 10% Hispanic, 19% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  54% Dem/46% Rep

    35

    66% Obama/34% McCain

    42% White, 12% Black, 26% Hispanic, 16% Asian

    VAP  45% White, 12% Black, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  63% Dem/37% Rep

    36

    64% Obama/36% McCain

    42% White, 25% Black, 22% Hispanic, 8% Asian

    VAP  46% White, 24% Black, 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  59% Dem/41% Rep

    37

    57% Obama/43% McCain

    52% White, 7% Black, 15% Hispanic, 23% Asian

    VAP  54% White, 7% Black, 14% Hispanic, 23% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  52% Dem/48% Rep

    38

    41% Obama/59% McCain

    94% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    VAP  94% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  47% Dem/53% Rep

    39

    59% Obama/41% McCain

    54% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 13% Asian

    VAP  57% White, 16% Black, 12% Hispanic, 13% Asian

    Avg. 2000-2009  54% Dem/46% Rep

    40

    33% Obama/67% McCain

    95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic

    VAP  95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic

    Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/62% Rep

    Under the Howell lines:

    21 Senate districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic

    2 Senate districts voted for Obama but have a history of voting Republican

    17 Senate districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican

    • …that’s a miniscule, 21-19 edge for the blue team in a non-presidential year (which 2011 will be, of course).  So, remind me again, how is this plan sooooo great?

    • …to do the 2000-2009 but take out federal-only years. In other words, just do the “odd” years and see what you get. My guess is that it would take Dems down below 50% in 3-4 more seats, leaving us at 17-18 seats. Does that seem about right?

    • a week, or even a day, to post a diary on Blue Virginia. I saw your comment at Swing State and wanted to let you know.  

    • TXIconoclast

      Like with the Howell plan, there is some caution because the Watkins proposal also split some precincts.

      1

      48% Obama/52% McCain

      64% White, 21% Black, 7% Hispanic, 5% Asian

      VAP  67% White, 20% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian

      2000-2009  46% Dem/54% Rep

      2

      45% Obama/55% McCain

      72% White, 14% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian

      VAP  75% White, 14% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

      2000-2009  43% Dem/57% Rep

      3

      45% Obama/55% McCain

      63% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 6% Asian

      VAP  65% White, 22% Black, 5% Hispanic, 6% Asian

      2000-2009  43% Dem/57% Rep

      4

      70% Obama/30% McCain

      36% White, 58% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  38% White, 57% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  67% Dem/34% Rep

      5

      79% Obama/21% McCain

      35% White, 53% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  39% White, 50% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  74% Dem/37% Rep

      6

      48% Obama/52% McCain

      65% White, 22% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

      VAP  68% White, 21% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  46% Dem/54% Rep

      7

      74% Obama/27% McCain

      34% White, 54% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  37% White, 52% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  68% Dem/32% Rep

      8

      43% Obama/57% McCain

      67% White, 26% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  70% White, 25% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  42% Dem/58% Rep

      9

      46% Obama/54% McCain

      72% White, 17% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  74% White, 16% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  44% Dem/56% Rep

      10

      78% Obama/22% McCain

      33% White, 59% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  37% White, 56% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  74% Dem/26% Rep

      11

      77% Obama/23% McCain

      30% White, 57% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  32% White, 56% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  70% Dem/30% Rep

      12

      44% Obama/56% McCain

      66% White, 22% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  69% White, 21% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  40% Dem/60% Rep

      13

      48% Obama/52% McCain

      64% White, 32% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  65% White, 31% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  45% Dem/55% Rep

      14

      43% Obama/57% McCain

      81% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  82% White, 12% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  41% Dem/59% Rep

      15

      45% Obama/55% McCain

      70% White, 12% Black, 6% Hispanic, 10% Asian

      VAP  72% White, 12% Black, 5% Hispanic, 9% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep

      16

      38% Obama/62% McCain

      79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  37% Dem/63% Rep

      17

      46% Obama/54% McCain

      69% White, 19% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  71% White, 19% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  43% Dem/57% Rep

      18

      49% Obama/51% McCain

      67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  70% White, 18% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  45% Dem/55% Rep

      19

      51% Obama/49% McCain

      55% White, 12% Black, 22% Hispanic, 8% Asian

      VAP  58% White, 12% Black, 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  45% Dem/55% Rep

      20

      63% Obama/37% McCain

      40% White, 25% Black, 23% Hispanic, 7% Asian

      VAP  44% White, 25% Black, 21% Hispanic, 8% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  56% Dem/44% Rep

      21

      55% Obama/45% McCain

      60% White, 6% Black, 13% Hispanic, 18% Asian

      VAP  62% White, 6% Black, 12% Hispanic, 18% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  51% Dem/49% Rep

      22

      63% Obama/37% McCain

      49% White, 18% Black, 18% Hispanic, 11% Asian

      VAP  52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  59% Dem/41% Rep

      23

      69% Obama/31% McCain

      49% White, 19% Black, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian

      VAP  52% White, 18% Black, 17% Hispanic, 11% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  67% Dem/33% Rep

      24

      69% Obama/31% McCain

      64% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian

      VAP  66% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 10% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  69% Dem/31% McCain

      25

      63% Obama/37% McCain

      50% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic, 18% Asian

      VAP  52% White, 6% Black, 20% Hispanic, 19% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  61% Dem/39% Rep

      26

      57% Obama/43% McCain

      60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian

      VAP  63% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 19% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  54% Dem/46% Rep

      27

      59% Obama/41% McCain

      60% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian

      VAP  63% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  56% Dem/44% Rep

      28

      55% Obama/45% McCain

      59% White, 8% Black, 16% Hispanic, 14% Asian

      VAP  61% White, 8% Black, 15% Hispanic, 14% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  49% Dem/51% Rep

      29

      50% Obama/50% McCain  (49.9% Obama/50.1% McCain)

      66% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 16% Asian

      VAP  68% White, 6% Black, 8% Hispanic, 16% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  45% Dem/55% Rep

      30

      42% Obama/58% McCain

      83% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  85% White, 6% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  40% Dem/60% Rep

      31

      42% Obama/58% McCain

      83% White, 5% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  86% White, 5% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/63% Rep

      32

      37% Obama/64% McCain

      89% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  90% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  35% Dem/65% Rep

      33

      59% Obama/41% McCain

      75% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 4% Asian

      VAP  77% White, 13% Black, 45 Hispanic, 4% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  56% Dem/44% Rep

      34

      47% Obama/53% McCain

      87% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      VAP  88% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  48% Dem/52% Rep

      35

      47% Obama/53% McCain

      76% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  79% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  46% Dem/54% Rep

      36

      37% Obama/63% McCain

      77% White, 17% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      VAP  79% White, 16% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  38% Dem/62% Rep

      37

      41% Obama/59% McCain

      73% White, 23% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  75% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  41% Dem/59% Rep

      38

      41% Obama/59% McCain

      84% White, 11% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  85% White, 11% Black, 3% Hispanic

      Avg. 2000-2009  43% Dem/57% Rep

      39

      40% Obama/60% McCain

      94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      VAP  95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

      Avg. 2000-2009  45% Dem/55% Rep

      40

      34% Obama/66% McCain

      94% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic

      VAP  95% White, 3% Black, 1% Hispanic

      Avg. 2000-2009  39% Dem/61% Rep

      Under the Watkins proposal:

      15 districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic

      1 district voted for Obama and has a history of voting Republican

      24 districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican