There’s a new Washington Post poll out, with generally good news for Democratic prospects in 2012. First, though, two obvious caveats: 1) there’s a long way to go until November 2012, and who knows what will happen by then; and 2) we don’t know who Republicans will nominate as their presidential candidate (e.g., will they come to their senses and nominate a relatively sane, moderate person like Jon Huntsman, or will they go with a lunatic like Donald Trump or Sarah Palin?). With those two caveats out of the way, here are the poll’s highlights.
1. Barack Obama holds solid, even dominating, leads in Virginia over major Republican candidates. Among registered voters, Obama leads Mitt Romney by 6 points, Mike Huckabee by 8 points, Tim Pawlenty by 18 points, Sarah Palin by 26 points, and Donald Trump by 26 points.
2. President Obama’s leads in Virginia are even higher post-killing of Osama bin Laden, with Obama leading Romney by 7 points, Huckabee by 9 points, Pawlenty by 20 points, Palin by 31 points, and Trump by 31 points.
3. President Obama’s approval/disapproval rating in Virginia clocks in at +9 (52%-43%), with an even higher +17 (57%-40%) following the killing of Osama bin Laden. The question is, will those numbers be maintained or fall back to where they were pre-bin Laden’s death? My guess is they’ll fall back somewhat, but probably not all the way to pre-bin Laden levels.
4. With regard to Republicans in Congress, Virginians are not pleased, with only 5% “enthusiastic” and 32% “satisfied” (a total of 37% of Virginians have a positive view of Congressional Republicans). In comparison, most Virginians (58%) are either “dissatisfied” with Congressional Republicans (39%) or “angry” with Can’tor et al (19%).
5. Finally, some less-than-stellar news: as we found out yesterday — note: the Post is dribbling out the poll results, obviously in an attempt to make this a multi-day story and get people reading their rag — Tim Kaine is tied among registered voters with George Allen, 46%-46%. Given that Barack Obama holds significant leads in Virginia over potential Republican opponents, the following question springs to mind: will Obama help pull Kaine to victory; will many Virginians split their ballots, voting for Kaine for President and Allen for Senate; or are these poll numbers basically meaningless at this point?
Bottom line: again, there’s a long way to go until November 2012, but at the moment, Barack Obama’s looking good to once again win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes. If he actually manages to do so, it’s very hard to believe he won’t be reelected President of the United States. If we could only hold the election tomorrow… 🙂