Home 2012 races PPP: Virginia Could Be Obama’s 2012 “Firewall”

PPP: Virginia Could Be Obama’s 2012 “Firewall”

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Check out these new PPP poll results for Virginia:

Despite his declining popularity Obama continues to lead all of the top Republican candidates in the state. It’s only a 4 point advantage against Mitt Romney at 47-43 but he has pretty healthy leads against the other contenders- 9 points over both Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry at 49-40 and 48-39 respectively, an 11 point advantage over Herman Cain at 49-38, and a 14 point one over Sarah Palin at 51-37.

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The overall take from these numbers is that Virginia continues to look like it could be something of a firewall for Obama, making it the most important state in next year’s contest…Obama’s running more or less 5 points better in Virginia compared to 2008 than he is in the rest of the country.

Virginia may well be a critical part of Obama’s path to 270 electoral votes next year. Combine that with the Kaine/Allen Senate race and you have the biggest state in the country next year.

As Steve Sinsinger of Daily Kos writes, “If Virginia stays blue, and all early signs are that it will, there are 13 EVs that come off the board for the GOP. Those could be the difference between re-election and a painfully narrow margin of defeat.”  Personally, I don’t think it will come down to that, especially if Republicans are crazy enough to nominate anyone but Mitt Romney, but you never know.  Stay tuned!

  • kindler

    To be only 11 points ahead of a total whackjob like Cain doesn’t make me feel very confident. We’ve got a lot of work to do between now and then.  

  • AnonymousIsAWoman

    There really is nobody else to pick if you are sane.  But the truth is lots of federal workers, senior citizens, environmentalists, union members – and, you know, his base, are pretty discouraged right now.