NLS: 90% Chance Republicans Take Senate Outright or Tie (20-20)


    Unfortunately, I have no particular basis to disagree with this NLS analysis.

    I’d say there is about a 75% chance the GOP takes the Senate outright, a 15% chance of a 2020 split, and Democrats have a 10% chance to hold the Senate if every close race breaks their way on election day.

    How about you? Discuss! 🙂

    P.S. If this forecast turns out to be true, which I am hoping it doesn’t, any thoughts for my post-election “winners and losers” list?

    • Cool_Arrow

      Reposting my comment from NLS:

      I am surprised a bit by having Barker as a lean GOP takeover. I agree that the “Barker not Baker” and “Lincoln” thing is a bit lame but see this as a toss-up race. There has been a ton of money poured into this race on both sides. I’ve seen plenty of TV ads. Unfortunately, I doubt that Baker’s foot in mouth comment about HCR being like the Iraq war bites him in this low turnout low information contest. The thing that can save Barker is how the heavily blue Alexandria precincts come out as they have never voted for him. They have been heavily targeted by the Barker team obviously. In redistricting this is what Barker really wanted. He got 6 very solid Democratic precincts added to his district that averaged about 64% for Deed performance. Given Deeds 41% statewide haul these are some very prized precincts that Barker gave himself. Barker obviously needs a good turnout there to offset other portions of the district. I think that this could go either way and don’t see anything more than a 5% win either way. Slight lean GOP seems a bit generous to Baker but maybe Ben is right and Baker wins reasonably comfortably.  

    • TXIconoclast

      My nominee: the terrible recruiting job by Democrats.

      This nominee is a winner for Republicans and a loser for Democrats (no matter what happens tomorrow).

      The Republicans only need 20 seats for the State Senate and they’re given the gift of 11 unopposed candidates.  Half the game has already been won.

      Even if you don’t get the strongest candidate, making the Republicans spend money to defend themselves is just as important so it doesn’t let them to spend money on close races. Increase the playing field and make them stretch their resources.

    • gg2landy

      Welcome to the Commonwealth of MISSISSIPPI.

    • quakercav

      Although I think the losers are obvious (the Commonwealth, the DPVA, the losing Senators etc.) I think you rightly point to a less obvious winner the other day.

      Namely, Democrats should expect some pretty strong results in 2013 in response to the certain overreach by Virginia Republicans should they get the trifecta. Thus while Democratic candidates in 2011 would be losers Democratic candidates in 2013 would be winners.

    • Will Radle

      has earned my vote! He is an advocate who has produced results, passing 20 bills through a Democratic Senate and a Republican House.  GO GEORGE LINCOLN Barker!

      George, Steve Stuban and Stan Barry have my support.  I ask you to give consideration to all 3, and me too, please of course.

      If you have not yet looked at my blog post sharing the culture I hope to help create in Fairfax County, please do:

      Thanks! Have fun tomorrow.

      A. Will Radle, Jr.

      Independent Candidate for Chairman,

      Fairfax County Board of Supervisors

    • pol

      He’s run a solid race, and even though Democrats are just waking up to the race, I think he will draw enough people out to win.  People that know him know that he is an effective legislator, and they have gone to very far extents to make sure he wins.

    • Mike1987

      then hate and fear is coming to Virginia.  All guns everywhere, anti-gay, anti-science, anti-poor, Pat Robertson on the state seal. Everything you’ve seen in Mississippi, Alabama, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio is coming to Virginia. Chaos is coming and we know should better. We deserve what we are about to get.

    • NotJohnSMosby

      It will be a decent day.  Barker is definitely at risk, but I think he’ll pull it out.  The rest of the NoVA Senate Dems will win.  Downstate, who knows.  

      On the HoD side, I don’t really expect anything but incumbents, with the Ramadan/Kondratik race being a possible Dem pickup.  It’s not really a pickup of course, since it’s moved 250 miles from where it used to be, but it would be another Dem seat from NoVA.

      On the local scene, I think the school board will remain as is in Fairfax.  We’ll pick up the seat in Braddock but probably lose one of the at-large seats.  I don’t see Kathy Smith or Strauss losing, and I don’t see us picking up Springfield.

      On the BoS, the only possible difference would be Janet O. knocking off John Cook.  But, having been involved in Fairfax politics for a long time, never take anything down in Braddock for granted.  

      The winners and losers?  The losers would very much be rural Dems, once again.  It can’t just be NoVA, the majority black districts and a few old white Dems hanging on by the skin of their teeth every election cycle. We’re running out of old white guys in the rural areas and this election might finish off 2-3 of the remaining conservative Southern Dems.

    • Paba

      While I think a Reynolds loss is a distinct possibility, I’d say it’s less likely for Puckett. He’s been more focused on going after his opponent and has a district that still trends D for the right kind of D.

      Reynolds and Armstrong have been running a campaign like it’s the 1950s or something. Of course, Armstrong was stupid to waste all his PAC money on himself in a race he can’t win in a district that hates Ds rather than trying to use it to look to the future. This lack of a statewide campaign for the House in any way, shape, or form means around 5-6 net losses, I think.

      Losers: I’m sure we all know who they’ll be. Moran, Armstrong, Saslaw for not recruiting enough Senate contenders, Reynolds for hooking up with the sinking Armstrong ship to try to win an impossible region, Howell, Barker et al for the botched Senate map.

      Mostly DPVA for no messaging, no strategy, no ideas, no nothing.

      I’m predicting losses for Houck, Miller, and Reynolds. Bell loses, too.

      The only winners are the grassroots, who might finally get listened to as we try to find a way out of the wilderness that apathy has put us in.

    • Yes, a Senate pick-up would be great in theory … but what about all the extremist Tea Party bills on which Gov. McDonnell so far has been able to have it both ways – saying he supports them while knowing the reasonable Senate would block them before they ever reach his desk? With a GOP Senate, the buck would stop with McDonnell, meaning he’d have to choose between signing the extremist Tea Party bills (turning off swing voters) or vetoing them (infuriating his base). We know McDonnell’s decent at campaigning (easy!) but McDonnell would be to show if he’s any good at governing (hard!) … and given his ABC store debacle, early signs aren’t promising.