Home National Politics Barack Obama: Many Paths to 270 Electoral Votes in 2012

Barack Obama: Many Paths to 270 Electoral Votes in 2012


Barack Obama’s campaign manager, Jim Messina, explains a few of the many ways (he says there are “over 40 different pathways”) for Obama to get to 270 electoral votes in 2012. I particularly like the Virginia/North Carolina path, but I also see no reason why President Obama can’t carry any or all of the following states next November: Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, and even Arizona (note: according to a new Pew poll, Latinos strongly favor Obama over Romney).

Meanwhile, for Republicans, the map is much more difficult, as they basically have to run the table, including in states with seriously unpopular Republican governors, like Ohio and Florida. Plus, Willard “Mitt” Romney gets to spend the next year explaining to the 99% of Americans why “corporations are people,” why his work for Bain Capital buying up companies and laying off workers would be a good model for the country, why his flip flops away from universal health care, from strong action on clean energy and climate change, from a woman’s right to choose, from LGBT rights, etc. mean we should trust him as far as we can throw him on anything. Answer: we shouldn’t, and we won’t. Sorry Willard (er, “Mitt”)!

  • kindler

    …because it forces the Repubs to play all over the map.

    I personally think the Southwest strategy makes the most sense considering how badly the GOP has alienated the Latino community in recent years.  But we also have a great shot in Virginia and need to fight for every single vote here.  

  • oldgulph

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.

    When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes- enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.

    The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

    In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM- 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.

    The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes – 49% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.


  • oldgulph

    A survey of Virginia voters conducted on December 21-22, 2008 showed 74% overall support for a national popular vote for President.

    By age, support for a national popular vote was 82% among 18-29 year olds, 75% among 30-45 year olds, 75% among 46-65 year olds, and 68% for those older than 65.

    By gender, support for a national popular vote was 82% among women and 65% among men.

    By political affiliation, support for a national popular vote was 79% for a national popular vote among liberal Democrats (representing 17% of respondents), 86% among moderate Democrats (representing 21% of respondents), 79% among conservative Democrats (representing 10% of respondents), 76% among liberal Republicans (representing 4% of respondents), 63% among moderate Republicans (representing 14% of respondents), and 54% among conservative Republicans (representing 17% of respondents), and 79% among Others (representing 17% of respondents).