Home 2012 races Stupor Tuesday Results: Open Thread

Stupor Tuesday Results: Open Thread

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Please feel free to use this as an open thread to discuss today’s Republican’t primaries in Virginia (yawn) and elsewhere. Are you feeling the Mitt-mentum? How about some “surging Santorum?” Newt Gingrich’s gigantic exploding head? Or, perhaps you’re in a stupor just thinking about how crazy, clueless, reckless, and pathetic this Republican’t field is (and how badly President Obama is going to maul them in November)?  That’s about where I’m at right now.

UPDATE 7:00 pm: NBC reports that Newt Gingrich has won his home state of Georgia, as expected. Also, NBC says Virginia’s too early to call, which is somewhat surprising (Romney was supposed to win easily).

UPDATE 7:06 pm: Daily Kos Elections says “Virginia exit polls back out to 63 Romney, 37 Paul.” If so, that’s really pathetic for Romney, especially given the extremely low turnout today. Can we say “no enthusiasm?”

UPDATE 7:12 pm: Per CNN, looks like a weak showing for Romney in Vermont, with exit polls showing “Romney received 38% support, followed by Paul with 27%, Santorum with 23% and Gingrich with 8%.” Another way to look at it: 62% of Vermont Republicans want anyone BUT Romney!

UPDATE 7:18 pm: Results from the Virginia State Board of Elections with 12.5% of precincts reporting, it’s Romney 14,605 (59%)-Paul 9,947 (41%). Turnout is miniscule. FAIL.

UPDATE 7:20 pm: MSNBC calls Virginia for Romney. That was never the question, of course — the margin of victory and the turnout both were. On those counts, Romney “won” Virginia, but certainly not in an impressive manner. Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling can’t be too happy (although they’ll pretend it was a smashing victory for Willard, of course – whatever).

UPDATE 7:38 pm: According to CNN Elections, exit polls in OH show “Romney 40%, Santorum 36%, Gingrich 12%, Paul 11%.”

UPDATE 7:39 pm: With 57% of Virginia precincts reporting, Romney’s leading Paul 59%-41%, with just 2.8% of active voters participating. Pitiful.

UPDATE 7:48 pm: The AP has projected that Willard will win Vermont.

UPDATE 7:54 pm: Four years ago in Virginia, turnout was 986,203 for Democrats; 487,478 for Republicans (McCain won with 243,981 votes). Currently, with 76% of precincts reporting, a total of 181,043 Republicans have voted in the 2012 primary, with 107,022 votes for Romney and 74,021 votes for Paul. FAIL.

UPDATE 8:00 pm: CBS News “projects Romney to win Mass.; in TN Santorum has a small lead; in OK Santorum leads.”

UPDATE 8:17 pm: CNN exit polls have Rick Santorum winning Oklahoma, with about 38% of the vote, with Willard and Newton Leroy trailing with about 25% of the vote each.

UPDATE 8:27 pm: It appears that Ron Paul will win the 3rd CD of Virginia. Paul also has won Charlottesville (388-355), Floyd County (260-208), Montgomery County (993-979), Patrick County (255-241), Pulaski County (334-326), Surry County (129-112), Warren County (754-528), Lynchburg City (1,643-1,578), Manassas Park City (110-96), Portsmouth City (1,144-1,077), and possibly a few more before the night’s out. Also, with 91% of precincts reporting, Republican turnout is at 235,327 (5.1% of active voters).

UPDATE 9:04 pm: With 98.56% of precincts reporting in Virginia, turnout is just 260,671 (5.5%), sharply down from 487,478 turnout in 2008.  Astounding, embarrassingly bad. FAIL FAIL FAIL!

UPDATE 9:28 pm: With 33% of the vote counted in OH, Santorum leads Willard 39%-36%.

UPDATE 9:58 pm: With 55% reporting in OH, Santorum leads Willard by about 11,500 votes, 38%-36%.

UPDATE 10:12 pm: Santorum has won North Dakota easily over Ron Paul and Willard. Santorum leading Willard by 12,500 votes in OH with 64% reporting. Santorum also has won Oklahoma and Tennessee. Not a bad night for Santorum so far, will be a great night if he wins Ohio!

  • Mike1987

    It shows less that 10K voting across the state. 10K?

  • pontoon

    the city of Charlottesville and Buckingham County.  

  • pvogel

    Scott gordon has  left the race for city council

  • FreeDem

    At 8:10 PM, or so:

    1st- 39%

    2nd- 44%

    3rd- 52%

    4th- 43%

    5th- 41%

    6th- 44%

    7th- 38%

    8th- 35%

    9th- 44%

    10th- 39%

    11th- 35%

    Although Chuck Todd on MSNBC is trying to spin Paul’s victory in the 3rd as due to Democrats flooding the primary, it looks like the rest of Paul’s strongest districts are in the more rural portions of the state. Romney has serious problems outside of the country club crowd in affluent areas!

  • kindler

    …and the Dem primary was uncompetitive was the first and only time I voted in the Repub primary.

    This year, I couldn’t have voted for any of these jerks without shooting myself afterward.

  • FreeDem

    I figured Paul could pick up a few random rural counties with a low turnout, but there’s got to be more than just random coincidence that he’s winning Floyd, Montgomery, Patrick, Pulaksi, and Craig all in a strip in the SW corner of the state. Do we need to rename Route 8 the Yellow Brick Road?

  • Memorandum

    From: Patrick Gaspard, Democratic National Committee

    To: Interested Parties

    Date: March 6, 2012

    Re: With Super Tuesday Looming, Mitt Romney’s Vast Spending Advantage Gives Him an Edge but His Blatant Hypocrisy and Extreme and Out-of-Touch Positions Will Be His General Election Kryptonite.

    With Republican voters from coast to coast heading to the polls today as multiple states across the country hold Super Tuesday contests, this is one of the biggest and most important nights of the primary season.  But if the GOP candidates have had a chance to look at the results of the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on the presidential race, it won’t just be the tallying of votes that keeps them up tonight.  In a strong demonstration of the damage that has already been done by the incredibly divisive and ugly GOP nomination process, four in 10 of all respondents say it has given them a less favorable impression of the Republican Party.  When asked to describe the Republican contests in a word or phrase, respondents offered such choice answers as “painful,” “lesser of two evils,” “uninspiring,” “poor choices” and “depressed.”

    But Mitt Romney ought to be more worried than anybody.  Results of the new poll show Romney’s favorability rating has dropped to an anemic 28 percent, with 39 percent having an unfavorable impression of Romney.  He’s faring even worse among independent voters, with just 22 percent having a favorable impression of Romney while 38 percent view him unfavorably.  What might cause such a strong unfavorable view of Mitt Romney in the last few weeks?  Perhaps it’s the fact that he’s running an almost entirely negative campaign; or, that he’s pandering to the far right and in the process demonstrating that no one can trust him; it may also be attributed to his being incredibly out of touch.  

    It’s very bad news for Mitt Romney, whose standing among voters is now worse than virtually all other recent presidential candidates who went on to capture their party’s nomination.  In fact, as MSNBC’s First Read noted:

    In fact, Romney’s image right now is worse than almost all other recent candidates who went on to win their party’s presidential nomination: Obama was 51%/28% and McCain was 47%/27%, per the March 2008 NBC/WSJ poll; Kerry was 42%/30% at this point in ’04; George W. Bush was 43%/32% in 2000; and Bob Dole was 35%/39%.

    As the GOP nomination fight continues through Super Tuesday and beyond, Romney has clearly done severe damage to himself should he make it to November.  That’s because in greater and greater numbers, voters are seeing that Mitt Romney will say anything to get elected.  He has tried to buy his way to victory and has taken extreme and out-of-touch positions that will alienate general election voters.

    ROMNEY VASTLY OUTSPENDING HIS OPPONENTS IN AN EFFORT TO BUY HIS WAY TO VICTORY IN OHIO AND ACROSS THE COUNTRY

    Throughout the battle for the GOP nomination, Mitt Romney and his allies have made it clear they has no problem burying his opponents with millions of dollars in ad buys if that’s what it takes to win.  The Super Tuesday states have been no exception, where NBC News’ Chuck Todd reported late last week that Romney and his Super PAC, Restore Our Future, have outspent Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and their Super PACs combined – an $8.4 million to $4.9 million advantage.

    In Ohio, which will be one of tonight’s most closely watched contests, the Wall Street Journalreported that Romney and his Super PAC have spent $4 million on television and radio ads, compared to just $968,000 from Santorum and his Super PAC – a 4-to-1 advantage.  And as the New York Times reported late last week, of the 11 Super PAC-funded commercials connected to the presidential election that have run since the beginning of February, all but one has been negative.  Simply put, Mitt Romney and his allies are carpet-bombing the opposition to win.

    Now, according to NBC News’ Mark Murray, new ad buys by Restore Our Future in Louisiana, Illinois, Mississippi and Alabama bring spending by Romney’s Super PAC in the GOP race to a grand total of $28 million.  Clearly, Mitt Romney and his allies are willing to spend any amount of money saturating media markets state-by-state to knock out their opponents and buy their way to the top.  As Republican strategist and former Rick Perry backer Nelson Warfield was quoted as saying in a recent New York Times article, “It’s clear the negative ads are what’s keeping this guy alive.  It seems like Republican primary voters will not vote for Mitt Romney unless they are forced into it.  And the way they’re forced into it is when he beats the other guy senseless.”

    EXTREME, OUT-OF-TOUCH POSITIONS WILL COME BACK TO HAUNT ROMNEY SHOULD HE MAKE IT THE GENERAL ELECTION

    But the price that Mitt Romney is paying in the Republican nominating process can’t be summed up in financial costs alone.  As he’s campaigned ahead of today’s GOP contests, Romney has taken extreme and incredibly out-of-touch positions that will greatly alienate general election voters should he make it November.  Just yesterday, for instance, while discussing rising tuition costs at a town hall event in Ohio, Romney dismissively suggested that students should “shop around” for affordable tuition.  What Romney neglected to mention was that the plan he has embraced would cut Pell Grant funding and end a tax credit for higher education, and as Massachusetts governor, he cut higher education funding while tuition and fees increased.  So students struggling to make ends meet should simply bargain-hunt while Mitt Romney actively works to eliminate benefits and make college less affordable?

    Mitt Romney also went as far on the campaign trail as calling President Obama “out of touch” for encouraging hardworking Americans to pursue manufacturing jobs – as if that were something to be ashamed of in this country.  Perhaps Romney’s comment shouldn’t come as much of a surprise – we already know his record when it comes to American manufacturing.  During his time as Governor of Massachusetts, he repeatedly cut funding for small manufacturers’ workforce training, and manufacturing in the state declined by twice the national average under his watch.  That’s in stark contrast to the President’s record: thanks to his efforts to help the American auto industry recover and additional measures to help small businesses, expand exports and bring jobs back to America, our nation’s manufacturers are hiring workers for the first time since the late 1990s.  And manufacturing has added more than 400,000 jobs since 2010.

    But Mitt Romney’s recent collection of extreme positions and out-of-touch views doesn’t end there.  Last week, he embraced the extreme right wing of his party by advocating for the Blunt-Rubio Amendment, which would allow employers to deny access to health coverage they found objectionable.  This could severely restrict women’s access to health care and is a fundamental assault on the rights of women to make decisions about their health for themselves.  But it wouldn’t just stop at restricting women’s access to contraception – it could affect access to mammograms, cervical cancer screenings and maternity care.  He’s also said he would have supported a so-called “Personhood amendment” in Massachusetts to define life as beginning at the moment of conception. It could have banned all abortions and likely banned many common forms of birth control.  And if that wasn’t bad enough, Mitt Romney showed just how weak a leader he is and how he’s willing to cater to the worst elements of the far right wing fringe when he refused to condemn Rush Limbaugh for his slanderous invective against Sandra Fluke, a Georgetown Law student who was barred from testifying by Congressional Republicans on the issue of affordable access to contraception and other health care services for women.  

    Romney’s run to the right may be winning him Tea Party voters, but he’s losing support from women after alienating them with his policies. It’s no wonder Romney is losing among women by almost 18 percent. In Ohio alone, less than a third of women view him favorably.

    For further evidence of just how far Romney is willing to go to shore up Tea Party support, look at his recent pledge to repeal the bipartisan Sarbanes-Oxley law – which was passed by a Republican House and signed into law by President George W. Bush.  Following the infamous Enron scandal, Sarbanes-Oxley restored much-needed confidence and responsibility to Wall Street – and Romney’s reckless call for a repeal of this critical reform shows there is simply no end to Romney’s willingness to pander to the right wing and let our nation slide backward to the same failed policies of the past.

    ROMNEY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY BLATANT HYPOCRISY AND DISHONESTY ON THE ISSUES

    Still, if his extreme and out-of-touch positions weren’t enough to give voters pause, his hypocrisy and dishonesty on the issues – of which some cases have just been exposed over the past several days – should do the trick.  He’s railed against earmarks and federal spending, but he bragged in 2002 during his run for Governor about his prowess at obtaining federal earmarks for the Olympics – even going as far as giving a PowerPoint presentation to show he knew exactly how to get taxpayer money out of Washington.  And then just yesterday, a Romney op-ed from 2009 surfaced that showed just how dishonest Mitt Romney has been about his position on health reform.  While he’s slammed the Affordable Care Act signed by President Obama and said similar legislation he passed in Massachusetts was no national model, he argued the exact opposite on multiple occasions, including in this 2009 USA Today op-ed, where he said that the law passed in Massachusetts – including the individual mandate – could serve as a national model.

    On Iran, Mitt Romney is misleading voters and completely distorting President Obama’s record. Romney says he would enact crippling sanctions, isolate Iran internationally and keep a military option on the table – but President Obama is already doing all three. He’s making Iran weaker and more isolated today than ever before.  In fact, President Obama spoke just last week at AIPAC’s Policy Conference, making clear his determination to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. But Mitt Romney won’t talk about any of that, instead continuing his campaign of hypocrisy and dishonesty on issues Americans care about.

    These episodes demonstrate yet again why so many voters – even in his own party – don’t trust Mitt Romney: he won’t tell the truth about his record, and he’ll say anything to get elected.

    CONCLUSION

    While Super Tuesday represents a pivotal moment in the race for the Republican nomination, tonight is hardly the end of the battle for Mitt Romney.  With 466 delegates at stake in today’s contests and Romney’s current delegate count at a modest 149, regardless of what happens tonight, Romney will still be considerably short of the 1,144-delegate total needed to clinch the nomination.  And while he may find himself on top in any number of contests this evening, make no mistake: with the millions upon millions in outspending his opponents and the laundry list of extreme, out-of-touch positions that have characterized Romney’s campaign since day one, Mitt Romney will emerge from Super Tuesday badly wounded among general election voters – and tonight will be anything but a victory lap.

  • Hugo Estrada

    At 1:00 PM., I was voter 91. No tables. No signs. The people at the poll even offered me extra “I voted” stickers. This is the most boring election in my life.

  • pontoon

    Only 264,130 votes statewide.  

  • I grew up in Pittsburgh and married a Pittsburgher.  And I remember when Santorum won his seat in Congress. My husband interned for Harris Wofford, and although we no longer lived in Pa, our families do, and Santorum went on to humiliate Pennsylvanians. I have lived in Bob Marshall’s district. I have lived in Ken Cuccinneli’s district.

    You play with fire, you might get burned.

    I am happy with Obama. But I will do anything I can to keep Rick Santorum from ever having the chance to be president.  

  • gg2landy

    Also won the City of Lynchburg. The new Liberty University Precinct was open for the first time and Paul won that Precinct.

    Total in Lynchburg – RP 1643 (51%), MR 1578 (48.99)

    Precinct III-2 (Vines Center/LU) – RP 355 (60.2%) MR 235 (39.8%)