Home 2012 races New Poll: Obama Opens Up 8 Point Lead Over Romney in Virginia

New Poll: Obama Opens Up 8 Point Lead Over Romney in Virginia


The new fashion.A new poll from Democratic-leaning PPP has Barack Obama pulling away from Mitt Romney in Virginia:

Barack Obama won Virginia by six points in 2008, and if he were up against his almost-certain 2012 opponent Mitt Romney today, he would win it again by a similar margin. If Romney hopes to close that gap, the state’s governor Bob McDonnell would not help, and there is no question that one potential running mate would hurt: Eric Cantor. The Constitution Party candidacy of the state’s former congressman Virgil Goode could also draw votes away from Romney, to Obama’s advantage.

Obama tops Romney by eight points, 51-43, up from a six-point (48-42) lead when PPP last polled the state last Demember. These results come among an electorate that reports voting for Obama by only four points over John McCain four years ago.  

McDonnell is a somewhat popular governor, with 46% approving and 36% disapproving of his job performance. But his presence on the ticket would only help Romney tread water at a 51-43 disadvantage. Cantor, on the other hand, is unpopular. 27% see him favorably and 41% unfavorably statewide, and he would boost Obama’s standing by four points (52-40). Obama would also lead Romney by twelve points if Goode makes the ballot in the state. Goode would pull 5% to Obama’s 50% and Romney’s 38%.

It’s worth spelling out what PPP hints at here – the voters they polled actually represent a slightly more conservative group than the one that went to the polls in November 2008. That would indicate that even if this year’s Obama campaign fails to match their 2008 turnout operation, Obama would still win Virginia handily.

The media’s Conventional Wisdom states that Democrats like Tim Kaine should be worried about distancing themselves from Barack Obama. Looking at these poll results, you have to wonder if that gets it backwards – should Virginia Republicans be distancing themselves from Mitt Romney?

  • NotJohnSMosby

    that you always need to knock 2-3 points from the Dem column of any PPP poll, and knock at least 2-3 points from the Republican column of any Rasmussen poll.  So, I would think that Obama is a very solid 5 points or more in the lead in VA right now.  

  • Elaine in Roanoke

    I’m cautiously optimistic that this poll is reflecting the actual situation right now in the state. The damage done to the GOP brand by the extremism of the last General Assembly may be partially reflected in the numbers. I personally know women who normally vote Republican, but they won’t this time.

    Plus, the economy is much better. Romney is a weak candidate. McDonnell damaged himself by the absurd excuse he used for dropping his support for “transvaginal ultrasound.” I realize that the Gov. went to Pat Robertson’s “law school,” but surely it must expose students to a little bit of Latin: trans means “through” or “across.” Vaginal is self-explanatory. Yet, we are supposed to believe that McDoofus didn’t realize that the bill he espoused was the state committing object penetration rape, if the woman involved doesn’t freely consent. Please, spare me!

  • sonofkenny

    PPP only looks “Democratic leaning” in relation to obviously biased pollsters such as Rasmussen. I’ve heard no claim – other than from right wingers who don’t like their results – that PPPs polls have any kind of built in bias…in fact they have been pretty spot on…