The first legitimate public poll (Roanoke College “polls” are a complete joke) of the Virginia governor’s race since Public Policy Polling came out with one in mid-July has just been released, by Quinnipiac University. Here are the highlights:
*”Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a 48-42 percent lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in the race to become Virginia’s next governor, according to today’s Quinnipiac University poll, the first survey in this race among voters likely to vote in the November election.”
*”Voters are divided on McAuliffe as 38 percent say he understands and 42 percent say he doesn’t. By a wide 51-37 percent margin, voters say Cuccinelli does not understand.” (Wait, just because Cuccinelli wants to slash taxes for rich people, devastate education and transportation, and tell you what you can NOT do in your bedroom?)
*”McAuliffe carries Democrats 92-1 percent while Cuccinelli wins Republicans 90-6 percent. Independent voters are divided with 42 percent for McAuliffe and 44 percent for Cuccinelli.”
*”The candidates break even 45-46 percent among men while McAuliffe takes women 50-38 percent.”
*”Cuccinelli wins white voters 50-42 percent, while black voters go Democratic 74-7 percent.”
*”Voters have a 41-35 percent unfavorable view of Cuccinelli and disapprove slightly, 46-42 percent, of his performance as attorney general. They have a split 34-33 percent favorable/ unfavorable opinion of McAuliffe.” (I’m truly astounded that science-denying/gay-bashing/women’s-rights-denying Cuckoo’s even got 35% viewing him favorably. Who ARE these people who view him favorably, and what is wrong with them?!?)
*”With less than three months until the election, the candidates for attorney general and lieutenant governor are unknown to the vast majority of voters.” (That’s truly pitiful, a failure of both the media to report and the public to pay attention. At the bare minimum, voters should know who EW Jackson is by this point, as he’s gotten tons of – really bad – publicity for his lunacy. But noooo. Ugh.)
*Q-Poll’s party breakdown is Democrat 30%, Republican 23%, Independent 39%. This compares to PPP’s registered voter poll, which had the partisan breakdown as Democrat 37%, Republican 32%, Independent/Other 31%. Q-Poll thus has Dems lower than PPP by 7 points, Republicans lower by 9 points, and Independents higher by 8 points.
Anyway, the bottom line is that this is pretty good news overall, with a 6-point lead among likely voters for Terry McAuliffe, just 2 1/2 months until election day. I’d love it to be 10 or 15 points over an extremist nutjob like Kookinelli, but sadly, there are a lot of people who will just blindly vote for anyone with an “R” by their name. Also, even sadder (and scarier), there are a lot of people who agree with the “Extreme Team” in their bigoted, intolerant, ignorant, screw-the-middle-and-working-class views…
P.S. Just for comparison purposes, in 2009 at this time, Bob McDonnell was up 7-15 points over Creigh Deeds. Thus, Terry McAuliffe now being up 6 points over Ken Cuccinelli represents a swing in Democrats’ favor of 13-21 points over 4 years ago at this time.
UPDATE: UVA Prof. Larry Sabato tweets: “Party defections low, but still big difference. McAuliffe losing 1% of Ds, Cuccinelli 6% of Rs;” “Q-Poll persists in not naming Libertarian Robert Sarvis, also on ballot. Questionable practice;” “Enthusiasm gap favors Rs but not massively. 27% of voters very enthused about Cuccinelli, 23% for McAuliffe;” “Q has no horserace numbers for LG and AG. Candidates little known. Means nothing in August. Ticket election? We’ll see;” “Q also has nothing on McDonnell. But it’s perfectly obvious McD’s scandal has hurt Cuccinelli. Letter “R” links them.”