Home 2013 races Blue Virginia Election Predictions (9/7/13)

Blue Virginia Election Predictions (9/7/13)


Blue Virginia’s election predictions (click on image to “embiggen” or click here) are based on all the public polling we’ve seen, plus the “internal” polling and other information we’ve heard about both on and off the record. Of course, things could change in the next 60 days or so, but right now, this is how we see the Virginia races for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General.

One important point we can’t emphasize enough: in no way, shape, or form should a string of good poll results or a relatively optimistic forecast lull us into complacency. To the contrary, our goal right now should be to redouble our efforts for the final stretch, helping elect not just Terry McAuliffe, Ralph Northam and Mark Herring, but also as many Democratic House of Delegates candidates as possible. And, of course, it’s up to YOU to turn out to vote Democratic on November 5, as well as to tell all your friends and neighbors and family to turn out to vote Democratic on November 5.

The flip side of this is we need to absolutely CRUSH the medieval-style extremist team of Ken “I hate contraception, sodomy, gays, voting rights and science” Cuccinelli, EW “Planned Parenthood=KKK” Jackson and Mark “Criminalize Miscarriages” Obenshain. These people would be an absolute disaster for Virginia, especially given that the Teapublicans overwhelmingly control the Virginia House of Delegates, and are neck and neck in the Virginia Senate. If we give the most extreme of extremist Republicans the keys to the Governor’s Mansion, the Lt. Governor’s ability to break ties in the Senate, and the Attorney General’s office…well, you can look just to the south of Virginia, to North Carolina, for a preview of the disasters that await us.

In short, there’s plenty of work for all of us, in whatever area we prefer (door knocking, phone banking, writing letters to the editor and/or social media posts, donating to our favorite candidates, etc.) through November 5. Thanks, and go Virginia Democrats!

  • Chris

    I agree, I think we will pick them all up this year.  While I think your AG numbers are good, I would predict the Governor to be 53/45/2 and the LT to be wider, say 59/41 – I would not even be surprised if EW does not break 40%  

  • Hmmm…Virginia young Republicans don’t have any doubts!

  • The Richmonder

    than Bearing Dift’s “Virginia Big Line” feature, which seems to be based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

  • and “protecting” the coal industry forever (I thought Republicans were against protectionism, “picking winners and losers,” etc. – guess not when it comes to the Cooch!). #FAIL #FAIL #FAIL

  • DCCyclone

    Unless you’re willing to say people who’ve seen internal polling and related data really do see Sarvis getting 6% or close to it, I just don’t buy that.  The only way he does that well is if a lot of rank-and-file Republicans decide they hate Cuccinelli so much, and see him as so hopeless, that they give up on him.  But in that case I’d expect TMac to do better than 51%, because frankly I don’t see usual partisans giving up on their own party’s Gov nominee who they strongly supported as A.G. 4 years earlier when the opponent doesn’t look any better than the low 50s–which means your own guy isn’t really a goner.