The second poll in two days – this one from Christopher Newport University (note: I’m not a big fan of CNU polling, so I’m taking this with something of a grain of salt), the other from Politico – showing Terry McAuliffe with a big (9 points or so) lead over Cuckoo Cuccinelli. This poll also shows Ralph Northam with a big lead (11 points) over Wacko Jacko (E.W. Jackson) and Mark Herring with a 3-point lead over Mark “Criminalize Miscarriages and Ban Contraception” Obenshain.
NEWPORT NEWS, Va. – Women, independents and defecting Republican voters give Democrat Terry McAuliffe a 9-point lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli among likely voters in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, according to a poll released today by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.
With less than a month to go, McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli among likely voters, 47 percent to 38 percent. Among registered voters, McAuliffe holds a 5-point lead, 43 percent to 38 percent. Libertarian Robert Sarvis was the preference of 8 percent of likely voters and 9 percent of registered voters.
“McAuliffe appears to be opening up a sizeable lead, with strength from key demographics,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “The Cuccinelli campaign has its work cut out. In the next four weeks, they have to convince moderate Republicans to come home, and women to take a second look. The test for the McAuliffe campaign will be to make sure their voters turn out.”
The poll shows McAuliffe with a 12-point lead among women, 50 percent to 38 percent, and a 16-point lead among independents, 45 percent to 29 percent. Cuccinelli has nearly unanimous support among Republicans who say they are most concerned with social issues (96 percent). But 11 percent of Republicans who say they are most concerned about the state’s business climate say they will not vote for him – most preferring Sarvis. McAuliffe, too, shows some weakness in his base, with less support among African-American voters than President Obama in 2012 and the losing Democratic gubernatorial candidate four years ago, Creigh Deeds.
In the lieutenant-governor race, the CNU survey shows Democrat Ralph Northam with a commanding lead over Republican E.W. Jackson among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent.
The contest for attorney general remains a tossup. Democrat Mark Herring leads Republican Mark Obenshain among likely voters, 45 percent to 42 percent, within the survey’s margin of error.
P.S. I hear that a new Roanoke College “poll” is coming out this morning. Whatever its results, I’d strongly recommend you ignore it. For one thing, Nate Silver rated Roanoke College one of the least accurate pollsters in America. For another, its results over the years have been all over the place. Finally, Nate Silver showed that Roanoke College “polls” are biased about 5 points in the GOP direction. Other than that, they rock! LOL
The Wason Center surveyed 1,004 registered Virginia voters, including 886 likely voters, Oct. 1-6. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%.
The survey and Kidd’s analysis are attached. He is available for interviews.
A second round of the Wason Center gubernatorial election survey will be released on Wednesday, Oct. 9, breaking down how voters’ views on the state of women’s issues, religious freedom, partisanship and officeholders’ ethics influence their choices for governor.