UPDATE 9:25 pm: Just got back from Rip Sullivan’s victory party, where he bought everyone a round of beer. Is Rip going to be a great delegate or what? 🙂 Meanwhile, it turns out that there was an error on VPAP earlier, and Rip Sullivan actually won every single precinct in the 48th districdt, romping over Dave Foster by a 62%-38% blowout margin. Hopefully, that marks the end of Foster trying to make the argument that he can win in blue areas of the state, but we’ll see…
UPDATE 8:03 pm: With 86% of the precincts counted, it’s Chafin 61%-Hymes 33%. With 72% of precincts counted, it’s Sullivan 59%-Foster 41% (still only 1 precinct won by Foster…one too many if you ask me, but what the heck, I’ll take it). And with 73% of precincts counted, it’s Lindsey 84%-Calabrese 16%. in addition to Delegate-elect Lindsey, congratulations to Delegate-elect Sullivan!
UPDATE 7:49 pm: With 64% of precincts reporting in the 48th, Dave Foster has unfortunately won one – Kirby precinct in Fairfax County. Still, I’ll take a 60%-40% lead any day. 🙂 Again, congratulations to Delegate-elect Joe Lindsey in the 80th, who has over 84% of the vote. As for the Virginia Democratic Senate caucus’ gamble on the 38th Senate district, to put it mildly it didn’t pay off, with Senator-elect Chafin up by 29 percentage points with 76% of precincts reporting. As I said a million times, we should focus our time, energy and resources on 2015…
UPDATE 7:38 pm: By the way, I asked Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett late this afternoon for his predictions. He said 61%-39% Sullivan and 62%-38% Chafin. Right now it’s 62%-38% Sullivan (with 44% of precincts counted) and 62%-32% Chafin (with 74% of precincts counted). Not too shabby!
UPDATE 7:35 pm: A few more from the Arlington elections office — Cherrydale: @DaveFosterVA 139 @RipSullivan48 302, Madison: @DaveFosterVA 371 @RipSullivan48 406; Rosslyn: @DaveFosterVA 59 @RipSullivan48 126; Dawson Terrace: @DaveFosterVA 49 @RipSullivan48 103; Arlington Absentee: @DaveFosterVA 312 @RipSullivan48 678.
UPDATE 7:32 pm: Looking good for Democrat Rip Sullivan in the 48th House of Delegates district and for Democrat Joe Lindsey in the 90th House of Delegates district. With 7 of 25 precincts reporting, Sullivan’s ahead 60%-40%. With 27% of precincts reporting, Lindsey’s ahead 89%-11%. Congratulations to Delegate-elect Lindsey! As for Foster, he hasn’t won a precinct yet; hopefully that trend will continue and Sullivan will hold his 20-point margin or increase it.
UPDATE 7:30 pm: With 72 of 120 precincts counted in the 38th Senate district, Republican Ben Chafin leads by a huge margin, 10,739 (61.2%) to just 5,638 (32.1%) for Democrat Mike Hymes. So why did Democrats pour hundreds of thousands of dollars into this 2:1 Cooch/Jackson/Obenshain district? I couldn’t figure it out then, and I sure can’t figure it out now.
UPDATE 7:23 pm: In Senate District 38, VPAP has it at Chafin 6,905 (62.12%)-Hymes 3,337 (30.02%)-Mullins 868 (7.81%) with 45 of 120 precincts counted. Pretty much over, barring a miraculous comeback by Hymes.
UPDATE 7:22 pm: According to the Arlington County Elections Board Twitter feed, Rip Sullivan beat Dave Foster in Thrifton precinct 415-315, in Marshall precinct 337-211, in Wilson precinct 129-86, and in Crystal Plaza precinct 48-37. Looking good for Rip (especially when you consider that his home base is in Dranesville/McLean, while Foster’s is in Arlington.
UPDATE 7:16 pm: Del. Greg Habeeb (@GregHabeeb) tweets, “First precinct reports I’m hearing from the Senate Special Election sound VERY promising.” Habeeb’s a Republican, by the way, so that’s not good news if you’re on the “blue team.”