This campaign is quickly coming to a close, but for the most part, all of the fireworks went off in the June primary when Brat scored an upset and defeated Eric Cantor for the nomination.
Brat is going to win this race in this Republican stronghold with the margin being anywhere from 19% to 23%, depending on how well the Libertarian candidate does in this race.
The hill for Jack Trammell was simply to steep to climb. The only way Trammell could win was to portray Brat as too extreme and have that message resonate with voters. Trammell’s mail pieces he has listed on his website attempted to do just that – take a look at them here:
The problem for Trammell is that in order to win, he would have to convince GOP voters in the western part of Richmond, western Henrico, and northern Chesterfield, many of whom are some of the wealthiest, and best educated voters in the state, that Brat was too extreme. But Trammell’s campaign is just not going to be able to do this. These areas in past elections, based on my review of past election results, just are way too Republican and way too partisan for Trammell to make the types of inroads he needs to win.
If Trammell were to win, he would have to win the portion of the City of Richmond by about 70%, win both Henrico and Chesterfield counties outright, dramatically increase his share of the vote in Orange County to 46% and in Culpepper County, to 45%. And based on these counties voting patterns in prior elections, this is simply not going to happen. Mark Warner is going to struggle in these areas, and even though he has run decently for a Dem in these areas in the past, he is still going to lose them by more than in the past – partisan voting is just too difficult to overcome these days.
Based on prior turnout numbers, the 7th CD consistently has the highest turnout numbers in the state, and I suspect turnout could be even higher, sine the Tea Party has nominated one of its own, and all those crazies, especially in places like Hanover County, are going to tun out in mass on election day. Turnout in the 7th CD may be so big it may even impact the senate race, possibly giving a small lift to Gillespie statewide.
Overall, Trammell’s campaign tried to wage the good fight, but they just didn’t have the resources to get the job done the way it should have been done. And without the DCCC assisting in this race, this campaign,unfortunately, was over before it began.