Home 2015 elections VPAP Precinct Map: Analysis of 45th House of Delegates District Democratic Primary...

VPAP Precinct Map: Analysis of 45th House of Delegates District Democratic Primary Results


Over at VPAP, they’ve got maps showing precinct-by-precinct results for Tuesday’s Virginia General Assembly elections. The first one I looked at was the 45th House of Delegates district, in part because I just talked to Mark Levine last night (at the ACDC Democratic unity event in Arlington). A few things jumped out at me from this map.

*Levine got 2,674 total votes, of which 2,272 (85%) came from Alexandria (14 precincts plus Central Absentee); 322 (12%) from Arlington (5 precincts plus Central Absentee); and 80 (3%) from Fairfax County (2 precincts plus Central Absentee).

*Levine won both Alexandria (Craig Fifer finished second and Julie Jakopic third) and Arlington (Jakopic finished second and Fifer third), finishing second in Fairfax behind Julie Jakopic.

*Levine won the battle for absentee ballots by 84 votes out of 737 total absentee ballots cast. Clearly, his campaign did something right in getting his supporters to cast absentee ballots!

*Levine won by 334 total votes. Not counting absentee votes, six precincts accounted for 87% of that margin: Ladrey Senior Building (+65); Blessed Sacrament Church (+55); Agudas Achim Synagogue (+52); City Hall (+46); Lyles Crouch School (+39); Abingdon (+36).

*It’s interesting to compare the 45th results to the Alexandria Mayor’s race. Of Levine’s top precincts: Bill Euille won Ladrey Senior Building; Kerry Donley won Blessed Sacrament Church; Allison Silberberg won Agudas Achim, Lyles Crouch and City Hall by huge margins. So, there was some overlap on Tuesday between Silberberg and Levine voters, although certainly Levine did well in precincts Silberberg didn’t win as well (e.g., Lee Center, which Euille won by a wide margin and Levine was basically in a three-way tie for first with Jakopic and Fifer).

*The number of precincts (not counting absentee) won by each candidate were: 9 for Levine, 5 for Jakopic, 4 for Fifer, 1 for Tong and none for Altenburg. Even in the ones that Levine didn’t win, he generally held his own, certainly didn’t get blown out. That’s a winning formula right there.

Anyway, those are just a few observations that jumped out at me. I’m sure I missed interesting stuff, so feel free to comment and let us all know. Thanks.

  • Interesting analysis, Lowell.

    I was particularly proud of the fact that our margin was best at Ladrey. Ladrey Senior Center contains my home in North Old Town where I have lived since 2001. It is also the precinct where I have been ADC precinct captain for several years. Clearly my neighbors came out and voted for me. Thank you!

    We also did well in the rest of Eastern Old Town, where I had strong supporters like Susan Davis (on Christ Church vestry), Jean Orr, and former chair of Old Town Civic Association Carolyn Merck, all of whom held well-attended “meet and greets” for me. I also did a LOT of personal canvassing there. Campaign veteran Donna McLean, whom I met quite by chance canvassing at the Old Town Marina behind the Torpedo Factory, held my very first meet and greet, and her wisdom and hard work proved invaluable in the days to come.

    At Agudas Achim, I had a strong champion in Paul Friedman. And on Election Day, my father practically camped out at Blessed Sacrament. I did a lot of personal canvassing in these precincts as well and had a nice “meet and greet” in Parkfairfax. Even though Del Ray was the Jakopic and Altenburg home turf, we still held our own, due in part to local supporters like David Lord and Josh Walker who held a well-attended “meet and greet” there.

    We did not neglect Arlington. Not only did we have two “meet and greets” there, but I had very strong supporters in precinct captain Joan Killingsworth and in both Carole Lieber and Bruce Shuttleworth, who do not live in the District but worked hard for me (as did the Shuttleworth sons!). The biggest Arlington shout-out goes to teacher Gail Perry who worked night after night calling voters and joining me at the Fairlington Farmer’s Market. I’m proud of the fact we achieved over 30% in Arlington — a better margin than in Alexandria — as fewer Arlingtonians realized there was an election going on. This was not a problem in Alexandria where there was a large focus on the mayoral race.

    Western Alexandrians played their part. Mary Radnofsky was tireless in making phone call after phone call for me. (Several people commented at the doors on her very persuasive calls.) And ADC precinct captain Sam Ulm and Anne Ulm (long-time supporters from my Congressional campaign) were wonderful and even, along with Mary, were the photo stars of my mailers. Kelly and Scott Maconomy made sure my signs were out early and everywhere.

    Finally, I can’t resist a final shout-out to Amanda, the sixteen-year old dynamo of Del Ray, who met me at Caroline Romano’s powerful Rally Against Rape where we stayed long into the night listening for hours to shocking and heartfelt stories from survivors of sexual violence.  Amanda so believed in me — and in my advocacy for victims of domestic violence and sexual violence — that for practically two months almost every day after school she went canvassing for me by bicycle in Del Ray. Lots of voters told me that her cheerful and passionate advocacy was the reason they voted for me.

    My spending lots of time at farmers’ markets, metros, churches, and synagogues played a role as well. I personally reached out to new voters. I must have gotten at least 50 new voters registered, and yes our team did make a strong concerted effort to encourage people to vote absentee. By Election Day, I had a personal connection with a large number of the people who voted for me. Many voters said hello to me at the polls and reminded me where I met them — whether at the Metro or the farmers’ market or mostly at their doorsteps where we had long wide-ranging conversations about policy, my intended strategy in Richmond, and their individual needs and concerns.

    My campaign manager Jacob Weinberg and field operatives Akanksha, Keira, and Andrew all worked very hard and very smartly. Our team collectively knocked on more than 12,000 doors.

    I think I closed down every debate as well just talking with voters. I know I talk a lot. But I really enjoy getting to know people and figuring out — like solving a puzzle — the best policies and best tactical ways to enact them.  I learned a lot from voters and incorporated many of their ideas into my platform as the race continued.

    Thank you, voters of the 45th, for putting your faith in me. I will work hard every day to continue to deserve it.

  • I will remember this campaign as a collection of moments. It started with the moments friends first called and encouraged me to run. Then the moment I made my announcement, from a laptop in a coffee shop. The moment I collected my first petition signature to get on the ballot, from my next-door neighbor, Donna. The moments I knocked on my first door, made my first fundraising call, and gave my first public speech as a candidate. The moment I first saw my name on a sign in someone’s yard, or a sticker on someone’s lapel. And the surreal moment on Election Day when I checked the box next to my own name.

    In fact, there were 2,340 moments when voters considered five strong candidates and chose me. Of course, I wish there were just 335 more. But I’m extraordinarily proud of the campaign I ran, which was positive and principled. And it was all because of friends like you. Your support made it possible for my progressive message to resonate with so many voters, and your encouragement kept me going during the ups and downs of the campaign.

    I congratulate Mark Levine on his nomination, and l look forward to helping elect him in November along with all our other Democratic nominees across Virginia. I know Mark shares the values of dignity and opportunity, effective and transparent government, and safe and sustainable communities, which were at the heart of my campaign.

    Thank you to Larry Altenburg, Julie Jakopic, and Clarence Tong, for putting themselves forward, as well. This was a race between five friends who all believe strongly in helping others. I now know firsthand just how difficult it is to be a candidate in modern politics, and I’m grateful to have taken this journey with other good people running for the right reasons.

    I deeply appreciate all the kind messages I’ve received throughout the campaign, and especially since Tuesday. Thank you to my dedicated campaign team, to everyone who contributed time or money, and to the elected officials and editorial boards who expressed public confidence in me. A special thank you to my girlfriend, Yael, for keeping me going with love and cakepops.

    Finally, thank you to my parents, brothers, and sister. I was raised to believe in the importance of service to others, and today each one of us works full-time in government, higher education, or the non-profit sector and volunteers outside of work. My favorite moment from this campaign was watching my parents sit quietly among the frenzy of my team as the results came in on Tuesday night. I knew they would be proud of me no matter what the outcome, because I worked hard and stayed true to myself.

    The Talmud teaches that we are not obligated to perfect the world, but neither are we free to abandon the task. There are many ways to help, big and small. Perhaps there’s an opening for public office where you live, a spot on a local board, a need for a volunteer at a non-profit organization, or a neighbor who needs a little help to avoid hard times. If you were inspired or impressed by my campaign, please consider how you can serve.

    Thank you for giving me so many wonderful moments, and for believing in me.