I like the looks of this new poll of Virginia by CBS News, but the usual (cliched) caveat applies: no overconfidence, let’s work like the race is tied, etc, etc. Having gotten that out of the way, I’ll take results like these any day (no wonder the Clinton campaign stopped spending money on ads in Virginia for now…).
- Top-line numbers show Clinton/Kaine with a 12-point lead over Trump/Pence in Virginia, with Clinton at 49%, Trump at 37%, Gary Johnson at 7% and “other” (Jill Stein?) at 2%.
- The vast majority say they are either “very strong” (70%) or “strong” (24%) on their choice, meaning it’s unlikely they’ll change. That’s good news for Clinton-Kaine, of course, since they’re ahead by 12 points. Also, of people currently not supporting Trump, only 2% say “yes, I would” consider voting for him in November.
- Clinton leads 92%-1% among African-American voters; 52%-37% among female voters; 57%-22% among young (18-29) voters and 46%-35% among voters aged 30-44.
- According to CBS News, “Clinton has nearly-unanimous Democratic backing at the moment while Trump isn’t doing as well with his fellow Republicans: she has 95 percent of the state’s Democrats compared to 79 percent of GOP-ers for Trump. In today’s highly partisan electorate, that amounts to a dramatic difference.”
- Virginians are VERY motivated to vote, with 75% saying they are MORE motivated than in recent years to cast their ballot this November.
- 67% feel that Virginia’s economy is doing “very well” or “somewhat well,” with just 32% saying it’s doing “badly.”
- By a 59%-21% margin, Virginia voters believe that Trump’s response to the Khan family was “inappropriate.”
- The choice of Tim Kaine as Clinton’s running mate has made 28% more likely to vote for Clinton and 16% less likely.
- Most Virginia voters believe that Trump is describing threats – the economy, ISIS, crime and violence – as worse than they actually are. Which, of course, is exactly what Trump’s doing.
- Only 35% of Virginian voters believe that “illegal immigrants…should be required to leave the US.” A majority (51%) believe – as I do – that “they should be allowed to stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship.”
- Democratic Virginian voters believe, by a 49%-23% margin, that Hillary Clinton is “listening enough to the concerns of Bernie Sanders and his backers.”
By the way, I’d love to see the regional breakdowns on this poll. For instance, if Clinton-Kaine is winning the 10th CD by a wide margin (10 points? 12 points?), then what would that mean for Republican Barbara Comstock vs. Democrat LuAnn Bennett?