Home 2016 elections New WaPo Virginia Poll: Clinton-Kaine Lead by 14 Points Over Trump-Pence

New WaPo Virginia Poll: Clinton-Kaine Lead by 14 Points Over Trump-Pence

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With this new poll by the Washington Post, the last three polls of Virginia have shown the presidential race as +12 (CBS poll), +13 (NBC/Marist)  and now +14 points for Clinton-Kaine over Trump-Pence. Here are some highlights from the new poll, hot off the presses.

  • “Clinton leads Trump by a 14-point margin — 52 percent to 38 percent — among registered voters in the state and by an eight-point margin among likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent.” (Note: we learned from the Gallup polling debacle of 2012 to stick with registered voters, not likely voters, at this point in the race…)
  • In a four-way race, Clinton-Kaine’s lead is 11 points, but I’d expect support for the third-party candidates to fall off a bit, and in the end not to make much difference in the margin of victory for Clinton-Kaine.
  • “Aside from the rural southwestern part of the state, Clinton’s lead spans all regions, most by a wide margin.” (That includes 68%-23% in the densely-populated DC suburbs, 60%-29% in Tidewater, and 54%-37% in the Richmond area, to complete the “urban-suburban crescent” victory strategy for Virginia statewide Dems. In rural Southwestern Virginia – where they need things like affordable/quality health care, things that Republicans WILL NOT give them – it’s 58%-32% Trump-Pence. Sigh…)
  • Clinton “trounces Trump among minority voters, and slashes the advantage Republicans usually count on among whites in Virginia.” (Again, that’s a winning formula for Virginia Dems, also for North Carolina Dems and Georgia Dems and maybe even South Carolina Dems…).
  • Trump is performing MUCH worse than Romney among whites, women, Republicans, Independents, college graduates, etc. Needless to say, that is NOT a winning formula for Trump.
  • ” Trump leads by 16 points among the half of Virginia voters whose households own a gun, but Clinton leads by 48 points among all other voters.” (Hence, Trump’s wild lies about Clinton supposedly wanting to repeal the Second Amendment and all kinds of crap like that. In fact, Clinton wants the same things (e.g., universal background checks for gun purchases) that 80%-90% of Americans do, while Trump OPPOSES what 80%-90% want – Trump wayyyy out of the mainstream here.)
  • “Clinton has the potential to accumulate a nearly insurmountable vote margin in the inner Washington suburbs, leading by 45 points over Trump, compared with Obama’s 26-point edge in 2012. Clinton holds a seven-point edge in the Washington exurbs that include Loudoun and Prince William counties, which split evenly between Obama and Romney.” (Crank it up in Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Prince William County and Loudoun County!)
  • “Although 86 percent of Democrats who wanted Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) to win the party’s primary support Clinton against Trump in a two-way race, Trump stands at 69 percent support among Republicans who wanted a different candidate to win the primary.” (I’d still love to see the remaining 14% of Dems who supported Sanders to vote Clinton on November 8, if for no other reason than to help stop Trump, and because voting third party, at least for president, in our two-party system is basically not accomplishing anything.)
  • “Nearly nine in 10 registered voters who support Trump say they are certain that they will cast ballots, compared with nearly eight in 10 Clinton backers, which is one reason her margin over Trump shrinks from 14 points among all registered voters to eight points among likely voters.” (Need to work on that, but for now, I’m not particularly concerned, especially with “favorite-son” Tim Kaine – with a 52%-35% approval rating, according to this poll – on the ticket and with Donald McEachin on the ballot in the 4th CD.)
  • President Obama has a 55%-39% approval rating in Virginia, including 89%-4% among African Americans and 82%-12% among non-whites. Definitely need to get President Obama to campaign heavily in Virginia this fall!
  • Finally, I love this quote from a Republican in Ashburn who would have happily supported JEB, Rubio, Kasich or Christie. As for Trump? “I think he’s a failure, I think he’s a fraud, I think he’s a con artist, I think he’s insane.” Yep, Trump most certainly is all those things.
  • 90% registered Repubs will vote
    80% registered Dems will vote
    Significant advantage in absolute numbers, but don’t get happy.
    Get busy
    GOTV
    Nothing changes without good Progressive support in (and pressure from) Congress.