Not sure I completely buy this one, as it seems a bit outlier-ish (comparison: the Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up 6.7 points in Virginia, prior to this poll) but it certainly would explain why the Trump campaign might have decided to shift resources away from Virginia! If accurate, this poll is a nightmare for Republican “attack dog” Rep. Barbara Comstock, by the way, as it shows Clinton winning in Northern Virginia by an incredible 55%-21% margin. Let’s hope.
P.S. It’s hard to reconcile the new WaPo/ABC national poll, which has Clinton up just 4 points nationally, with state polls like this one of Virginia by Christopher Newport University, plus a new one by right-wing/pro-Trump Gravis/Breitbart showing Clinton up 4 points (46%-42%) in Florida.
P.P.S. Much easier to reconcile the CNU poll with this brand-new NBC poll: “In a four-way race, Democrat Clinton holds an 11-point lead over Republican Trump among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2 percent.”
|Clinton expands Virginia lead over Trump to 15 points, 44-29, after lewd ‘Access Hollywood’ tape release and 2nddebate
NEWPORT NEWS, Va. – Democrat Hillary Clinton now holds a 15-point advantage over Republican Donald Trump in Virginia, according to a tracking survey released Sunday by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Clinton leads Trump among likely voters in Virginia, 44-29 percent.
“It’s crystal clear why the Trump campaign pulled staff out of Virginia this week,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center. “The Access Hollywood tape, along with Trump’s second debate performance and the turmoil that followed, has fundamentally made Virginia impossible for him to win.”
The survey was conducted Oct. 11-14 among 809 likely Virginia voters, entirely after the release of the 2005 tape and the St. Louis debate. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.6 %.
Clinton has doubled her lead since this series of tracking surveys began. She led Trump by 6 points, 39-33, in the baseline survey released Sept. 26. She led by 7 points, 42-35, in the Oct. 3 release.
In this survey, Clinton’s support among women is almost double that of Trump, 50-26 percent. For the first time, she leads among men, 37-32 percent, and among likely voters in military households, 38-32 percent. She has gained 10 points in Northern Virginia to lead Trump in that region, 55-21.
“Clinton’s strong showing in Northern Virginia and her 24-point lead statewide among women block any path Trump might have to win in Virginia,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center.