Home 2015 elections When Dems Vote and Do NOT Vote: Loudoun and Prince William Counties...

When Dems Vote and Do NOT Vote: Loudoun and Prince William Counties Illustrate Stark Difference Between 2016 and 2015

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The election results on Tuesday from two of Virginia’s biggest counties, Prince William and Loudoun, where Hillary Clinton won BIG TIME, really tell a story when you compare them to elections in non-presidential years in those counties. Check out the following two examples, which illustrate as clearly as can be that if Democrats would just show up in non-presidential-year elections, we would dominate those counties’ governments, instead of being in the minority.

Example #1: Prince William County (2016 vs. 2015)

In the presidential election this past Tuesday, Hillary Clinton won 112,986 votes in Prince William County (vs. just 71,588 for Donald Trump). The “blue team” absolutely romped, in other words, in this “majority minority” county that also went strongly for Barack Obama twice. Yet in 2015, Prince William County Board Chair Corey Stewart (R), a guy who’s arguably as extreme, xenophobic and thuggish as Trump, won just 37,874 votes (a bit more than half of what Trump won this past Tuesday), yet romped to victory over his Democratic opponent by around 9,000 votes! Crazy, huh?

And what if those 112,986 PW County Democratic voters who cast ballots this past Tuesday had voted in 2015? That’s right, Stewart would have been WIPED OUT, losing by around 75,000 (!) votes. Even if Democratic votes had declined proportionally the same as Republican votes from a presidential election year, this egregious right wingnut still would have been crushed.

Instead, sadly, 2015 Democratic votes in PW County were just 25% of 2016 Democratic votes, while Republican 2015 votes were 50% of their 2016 votes. Again, the Democratic “dropoff” from presidential to non-presidential years was much, much greater (in this case twice as as great) as Republican “dropoff.” And that is absolutely disastrous for Democrats in “off-year” elections.

Example #2: Loudoun County (2016 vs. 2015)

This past Tuesday, Hillary Clinton romped in Loudoun County, with 100,694 votes, compared to Trump’s 69,888 votes. Not even close. In stark contrast, in 2015, a relatively miniscule 24,633 votes were cast for County Board of Supervisors Democratic nominee Phyllis Randall vs. 38,836 votes for the two Republicans running. Fortunately, Randall won anyway, because the two Republicans split those 38,836 votes. But the bottom line is that only about one quarter the number of Loudoun County residents who voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election voted for Democrat Phyllis Randall in the 2015 race for Chairman of the Board of Supervisors. Maddening.

Meanwhile, although Republican “dropoff” was apparent as well, it again was far less severe than Democratic “dropoff,” with around 55% the number of Republicans voting in 2015 as voted in 2016. If Democratic “dropoff” had simply been proportional to Republican “dropoff,” there is basically no doubt that Democrat Andrew Resnick would have won, probably EASILY, over Republican Suzanne Volpe for Board of Supervisors from the Algonkian District. Same thing for Democrat Mike Turner vs. Republican Ralph Buona in the Ashburn District; also for Democrat Al Nevarez vs. Republican Ron Meyer in the Broad Run District.

Bottom line: Democrats have the numbers RIGHT NOW in both Prince William and Loudoun counties to take control of their respective Board of Supervisors. And it wouldn’t even be close, in fact…if only Democratic “dropoff” from presidential-year-level turnout were proportional to Republican “dropoff.” But nooooooo…..ugh.

  • Elaine Owens

    The one thing I’m heartened by in this clusterf##t of an election is the emotional level of disgust among young people, people of color, and women. If that can be turned into political action, maybe, just maybe, we can use it to increase Democratic votes in off-year elections. Our motto should be, “Don’t get mad. Get even.” Who do I nominate to lead this movement? Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

  • verdantknoll

    When the heck did Prince William County become Democratic? … Has to be all the people on public assistance in recent years….

    • notjohnsmosby

      Gee, I don’t see anyone slapping the dick out your mouth while you’re trying to work.

      • verdantknoll

        Ahh … the liberal potty mouth … something to be proud of….

        • notjohnsmosby

          Aw, whittle Republican ears, so sensitive when big bad Democrat cusses.

    • The people of Prince William County voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama twice and even more overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, as the county gets more and more Democratic. Unfortunately for the right wingnuts, but fortunately for everyone else, this is the direction the entire country is headed.

      • SKEPTICAL PROGRESSIVE

        Democrats need to start connecting with and turning out these votes in the Board of Supervisors State Senate elections to turn the Board of Supervisors over. If London and PWC could replicate their Presidential turn out in those years, even Dick Black, in his Republican leaning district, would be in trouble.

  • True Blue

    Is there a way to dissect the data for crossover votes? Hillary won a whopping 75 to his 19 precincts out of Loudoun’s 94 (two districts in western Loudoun prevent more nice results). Some of the increased vote count for Hillary came from Republican women and millennials who would never vote for a sexual assaulter or racist (pick your poison); several acquaintances shared that fact with me, one commenting “I’m with her (and you), I have daughters!” Yes, we worked hard leading up to and including GOTV, and voter turnout was greater. An election every year in Virginia fatigue factor sets in, unfortunately. I’m glad that I have several new neighbors that vote Democratic!

    • Yeah, you can look at the precinct-level info for clues, but I don’t think there are any exit polls that break out Loudoun County per se. I suppose someone could poll people in Loudoun County and ask them more questions about their voting choices this election…

    • notjohnsmosby

      NoVA did about as expected – high turnout, very high totals for Clinton. There isn’t much else that NoVA could have done. We got out the vote for Clinton and carried the state. That wasn’t done throughout most of the Midwest and Florida.