Home 2016 elections Final CNU Poll of the 2016 Campaign: Clinton 48%-Trump 42% in Virginia

Final CNU Poll of the 2016 Campaign: Clinton 48%-Trump 42% in Virginia

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From the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University – final poll of the 2016 campaign.

Clinton holds 6-point lead over Trump in Virginia, 48-42, powered by women, Millennials and Northern Virginia  

NEWPORT NEWS, Va. – On the eve of the election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Virginia, 48-42, according to the final 2016 tracking survey by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Trump had brought Clinton’s lead down from a high of 15 points earlier in the tracking series, but her margin held up in the final week. 

A gap in party loyalty shows Clinton with the support of 92 percent of Democrats, while Trump has 82 percent of Republicans. Third-party voters have declined steadily during the tracking series, with Libertarian Gary Johnson now at a low of 3 percent from a starting point of 15 percent in September.

“Any electoral victory has to begin with fundamentally solid party support,” said Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center.  “Clinton has that going into Election Day, and Trump continues to struggle with it.”

A gender gap also shows, with women voters favoring Clinton by 16 points, 53-37 percent. Millennials are even stronger for Clinton, as voters 18-34 years old prefer her, 56-33 percent. Trump’s strongest support comes from white men, who back him 62-29 percent. White voters overall favor Trump, 54-36 percent, while African-American voters support Clinton, 89-5 percent.

“In the closing week, women and especially non-white women are closing ranks around Clinton,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center.

Regionally, Clinton’s strongest vote comes from Northern Virginia, 59-33 percent. Trump has nearly as lop-sided an edge in the rural South-Southwestern part of the state, 56-34 percent.

This survey was conducted Nov. 1-6 among 1,193 likely Virginia voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.6%, though the margin of error for subgroups is higher.