According to a new poll, by Public Policy Polling (PPP) for the Virginia Education Association, Ralph Northam leads Tom Perriello by 14 points (39%-25%). Note that this poll is the first among what it considers to be “likely voters”; all the other polls have been of registered voters, to my knowledge. Personally, I’d be a bit skeptical of any “likely voter” polls at this point, as most Democrats still aren’t paying close attention to this race and the electorate could look significantly different on June 13 than it seems to look now.
Also note that this poll differs significantly from the other polls of this race, two of which had it tied and another with Perriello up 5 points, with the exception of an old CNU poll back in January, which had Northam up 11 points (26%-15%) over Perriello.
Question: given that the Virginia Education Association, which commissioned this poll, has endorsed Ralph Northam in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, could that have had any effect on the results? I’m not sure, but it’s something to consider.
Finally, in other results, the poll finds that:
- Democratic likely voters are very favorably inclined (77%-5%) towards Terry McAuliffe;
- Democratic likely voters are very favorably inclined towards both Ralph Northam (47%-11%) and Tom Perriello (44%-12%).
- By a 77%-11% margin, Democratic likely voters prefer a candidate who “emphasizes the need to get things done in Richmond rather than to “shake things up.”
- By a 69%-15% margin, Democratic likely voters prefer a candidate “who will lead Virginia in a similar direction as Governor McAuliffe” rather than “a different direction.”
- Democrats love teachers (83% favorable) and want to raise their pay to the national avarge (93%).