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Analysis of Virginia Primary Election Results: “Democrats are fired up and Republicans have problems across the board”

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Interesting analysis from the DCCC:

Last week’s Virginia gubernatorial primary results mean we can now measure the enthusiasm gap between Virginia Democrats and Republicans in real numbers. Analysis of this from multiple outlets on a statewide level drew the same conclusion: “Democrats have enthusiasm on their side.”

These new data points add to the mountain of anecdotal evidence provided by invigorated grassroots organizing, packed town halls, and a flood of letters and editorials that show just how vulnerable Virginia Republicans are in the 2018 midterms.

In an effort to measure how this newly quantifiable enthusiasm translates from a statewide trend to down ballot Congressional races, we compared Presidential and Congressional vote-yield in the 2016 general election to ballots cast in each party’s 2017 gubernatorial primary. Of course, this is not apples to apples, but it is instructive.

In key counties and municipalities across the Commonwealth, Democratic voters comprised a higher percentage of Virginians casting ballots in Tuesday’s primary election than they did in 2016’s general election for President and Congress.

Bottom line: Democrats are fired up and Republicans have problems across the board.

House Percentage by CD 2016 General Dem House Vote 2016 General Rep House Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Virginia 2nd 106,979

38%

172,586

62%

42,051

53%

37,641

47%

Virginia 5th 147,656

42%

206,577

58%

51,037

59%

35,015

41%

Virginia 7th 158,692

42%

217,968

58%

48,692

49%

50,212

51%

Virginia 10th 181,977

47%

204,019

53%

47,649

56%

34,872

44%

[Decision Desk, 6/13/17; Politico, 11/8/16]

Presidential Percentage By CD 2016 Clinton Vote 2016 Trump Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout   2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout  
VA-02 45.4% 48.8% 53% 47%
VA-05 42.3% 53.4% 59% 41%
VA-07 44% 50.5% 49% 51%
VA-10 52.2% 42.2% 56% 44%

[Daily Kos Elections, accessed 6/15/17]

 

Drilling down to specific counties within these Congressional districts, the enthusiasm gap that Republicans will have to overcome continues to be apparent.

  • Virginia’s 10th, Rep. Comstock
Virginia 10 – House 2016 General Bennett Vote 2016 General Comstock Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Loudoun 89,523

50%

89,358

50%

20,847

63%

12,393

37%

Fairfax County 52,976

49%

55,268

51%

16,064

61%

10,112

39%

Winchester City 4,970

47%

5,497

53%

1,264

55%

1,037

45%

Clarke 2,895

37%

4,988

63%

927

48%

1,028

52%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

Virginia 10 – Presidential 2016 Clinton Vote 2016 Trump Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Loudoun 100,975

59%

69,949

41%

20,847

63%

12,393

37%

Fairfax County 355,133

69%

157,710

31%

16,064

61%

10,112

39%

Winchester City 5,164

52%

4,790

53%

1,264

55%

1,037

45%

Clarke 3,051

40%

4,661

63%

947

48%

1,028

52%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

Notable — Corey Stewart defeated Ed Gillespie in VA-10. [Decision Desk, 6/13/17] 

  • Virginia’s 2nd, Rep. Taylor
Virginia 02 – House 2016 General Brown Vote 2016 General Taylor Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Virginia Beach City 72,110

38%

119,362

62%

24,045

51%

23,427

49%

Northampton 2,741

46%

3,240

54%

1,041

66%

535

34%

Accomack 5,660

37%

9,492

63%

2,116

57%

1,631

43%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

 

Virginia 02 – Presidential 2016 Clinton Vote 2016 Trump Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Virginia Beach City 91,032

48%

98,224

52%

24,045

51%

23,427

49%

Northampton 3,255

55%

2,686

45%

1,041

66%

535

34%

Accomack 6,740

44%

8,583

56%

2,116

57%

1,621

43%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

  • Virginia’s 7th, Rep. Brat
Virginia 07 – House 2016 General Bedell Vote 2016 General Brat Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Henrico 55,118

49%

56,841

51%

18,691

55%

15,553

45%

Chesterfield 55,692

46%

66,062

54%

17,406

56%

13,748

44%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

 

Virginia 07 – Presidential 2016 Clinton Vote 2016 Trump Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Henrico 62,429

56%

49,289

44%

18,691

55%

15,553

45%

Chesterfield 59,074

50%

58,798

50%

17,406

56%

13,748

44%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

  • Virginia’s 5th, Rep. Garrett
Virginia 05 – House 2016 General Dittmar Vote 2016 General Garrett Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Charlottesville 17,404

79%

4,565

21%

8,418

94%

526
6%
Fauquier 10,564

36%

18,901

64%

3,486

41%

5,094

59%

Albemarle 31,326

58%

22,784

42%

14,238

78%

4,065

22%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

 

Virginia 05 – Presidential 2016 Clinton Vote 2016 Trump Vote 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout
Charlottesville 17,901

86%

2,960

14%

8,418

94%

526

6%

Fauquier 12,971

37%

22,127
63%
3,486

41%

5,094

59%

Albemarle 33,345

63%

19,259

37%

14,238

78%

4,065

22%

[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]

  • shirtbrigade

    VIRGINIA, the OOOOOOOLLLDDD DOMINION STATE> YEAAAAAHHH BOIII CRONIES GALORE. STAY DEM. Y’ALL DESERVE EACH OTHER!!! YOU GAVE US JUDGE GERALD BRUCE LEE, THE JUDGE WHO JUST *RETIRED*….RUNNING FOR HIS WAAAAAMBULANCE WHEN HIS OWN BELOVED SUPREME COURT VOTED HIS DUMB ASS 8-0 AGAINST HIS STUPIDITY IN THE SLANTS/REDSKINS. OL’ GERALD, ONCE AGAIN, TRYING TO MAKE LAW FROM THE BENCH FINDS OUT REAL JUDGES WHO FOLLOW CONGRESS, DO NOT FALL FOR HIS CLINTON APPOINTED BS. BE FOREWARNED> HIS CRONIES ARE RUNNING FOR HIGH OFFICE IN VIRGINIA. WILL THE SLOW REPUBLICANS FIGURE IT OUT BEFORE ITS TOO LATE? NOPE. GLOBALISTS ARE UNDER EVERY ROCK. THEY WILL TAKE FROM YOU EVERYTHING AND LEAVE YOU NOTHING….IT IS SURE A GREAT THING TO SEE THAT FATE HAS ITS TALONS. MORONS FALL. REAL LEADERS SEE THROUGH THE FOG.

  • shirtbrigade

    ILL GIVE YOU SOME BLUE VIRGINIA. 1:02 CV 01242 GBL ED VA SERIAL KILLERS WALK RIGHT ON THROUGH AND THE FEDERAL COURT JUDGE APPOINTED BY CLINTON BLESSES THEM…BECAUSE THEY SHARED SOME OF THE BILLIONS THEY STOLE FROM INNOCENT INVESTORS WITH THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN. HECK, THEY SPEARHEADED THE CAMPAIGN. LETS SEE THE PROOF. http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.538062

    and

    https://www.google.com/search?q=morty+davis+hillary+clinton&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjk-ua3zc7UAhVO52MKHcfbBVcQsAQIJw&biw=1455&bih=722

    Tied to the case above and another called 06 civ 170 SD NY SAS, yet another CLINTON APPOINTED JUDGE, WOW, what are the ODDS that two Judges in two different Circuits turn up to the CLINTON Judges? I calculated it. 1 in 260. And the cases ?? Tossed. 6 BILLION STOLEN FROM INNOCENT INVESTORS. Patients in fake trials SERIAL KILLED to money could flow…. and it did. It surely did. And the weak minded CLINTON APOINTED JUDGES did what Dark Jimminy Cricket told them to do, throw the case….and right in the thick of it, SUPREME COURT HOPEFUL Harvey Wilkenson III, the one who is STOKED !!!! ex parte threw these cases, so the Defendant’s Counsel gloated. And that’s all folks, you have NO COURT. Magna Carte is less than toilet paper to these TUGS. OLD DOMINION??? GATES OF HELL. Slowest people in the union. Stay blue. And DUMB.

  • shirtbrigade

    FAKE PRESS??? WHY DID YOU MISS THE STORY OF THE LAST 2 CENTURIES? WHO CONTROLS YOU??? FRICKIN MASS MUPPETS. REAL AMERICANS WANT TO KNOW.