Look, anything can happen in an election, and polls can certainly be wrong. That includes Ralph Northam losing on November 7. But for the new poll by Hampton U – showing Ed Gillespie to be up 8 points (41%-33%) over Ralph Northam – to be accurate, every other poll would have to not just be wrong, but WILDLY wrong. Here’s a comparison to recent polls by others:
FOX News: Northam 49%–Gillespie 42%
Quinnipiac University: Northam 53%-Gillespie 39%
Monmouth University: Gillespie 48%-Northam 47%
Christopher Newport University: Northam 48%-Gillespie 44%
Roanoke College: Northam 50%-Gillespie 44%
Emerson College: Northam 49%-Gillespie 44%
Washington Post-Schar School: Northam 53%-Gillespie 40%
I’d add that Northam’s “internals” supposedly have him up 6 points.
I’d also note that Hampton U’s pre-primary poll was wildly off, showing Tom Perriello up 6 points on Ralph Northam on the Democratic side and Ed Gillespie up 17 points on Corey Stewart (with Frank Wagner actually a point ahead of Stewart!) on the Republican side. Not even close.
So…let’s just say I’d take this new Hampton U. poll with a grain/pillar of salt, and leave it at that. Still, standard disclaimers about not getting overconfident, working like we’re down a point, “leaving it all on the field,” yada yada, apply. 🙂
P.S. I’m also not seeing crosstabs, plus the percentage of undecided voters (27%) is craaazy high (e.g., almost all other polls have undecided #s in the 4%-6% range). Just weird all the way around. Oh, and don’t forget the following, bizarre, Trump-style (over the top, false) self promotion from their June poll. Note that, contrary to what Hampton U. claims, basically every single poll of Virginia had Clinton winning, while Hampton U’s 11/2/16 poll had Trump up 3 points in Virginia (Clinton ended up winning by 5 points).
Over the course of the 2016 Presidential Election season, the CPP was recognized nationally by several media outlets. The Washington Post distinguished the CPP poll for its 100% accuracy. The CPP also made headlines on Fox News, MSNBC & in The New York Times. While the methodology of other polling organizations was wrong, the CPP was the only polling organization to accurately predict Clinton winning the state of Virginia.