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If Q-Poll Is Correct, Dems Are in For a Helluva Night on 11/7…But +17 Seems Just a Wee Bit Outlier-ish

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I’d love to believe this new poll from Quinnipiac, but…really? I’ve been hearing more about internals in the range of a 4-8-point lead for Ralph Northam.  Again, I hope Q-Poll is right, but this one just seems outlier-ish to me.

With overwhelming support from non-white voters and double-digit leads among both men and women, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today’s result compares to a 53 – 39 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 72 – 15 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. White voters are divided 46 – 46 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 56 – 36 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men go Democratic 51 – 37 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra.

Independent voters tip to the Democrat 47 – 42 percent, with 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 97 – 1 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 86 – 8 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra.

Virginia likely voters disapprove 60 – 34 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing, compared to a 62 – 35 percent disapproval rating October 18.

“In 2014, Republican Ed Gillespie came oh-so-close to upsetting Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, at least in part because 2014 was a Republican year and Gillespie benefited from the national pro-GOP mood. But with President Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the dumpster in Virginia and in the nation, this year the shoe is on the other foot for Gillespie,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Anything, of course, is possible in politics. But the size and scope of Lt. Gov. Northam’s lead is impressive. He leads among most voter groups. He even carries men.”

“And history does not provide many examples of candidates who have come back from this large a deficit so close to the actual voting,” Brown added.

From October 25 – 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 916 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll