Home 2017 Races Ranking the Competitiveness of Virginia’s House of Delegates Districts (10/1/17 update); Compare...

Ranking the Competitiveness of Virginia’s House of Delegates Districts (10/1/17 update); Compare to Cook, Virginia FREE

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See below for my updated Virginia House of Delegates rankings (compare to my June 21 rankings), listed in descending order from the best chance of Dems winning the district on November 7. After that, I include for informational and comparative purposes two other ratings that came out recently – from Cook Political Report and Virginia FREE. Enjoy!

  1. District 2 (56%-39% Hillary Clinton district): With incumbent Del. Mark Dudenhefer (R) stepping down, with this PW/Stafford County district having gone so strongly for Clinton, with a rising-star Democratic candidate in Jennifer Carroll Foy, and with the former Republican nominee (Laquan Austion) dropping out (replaced by Michael David Makee), this one is practically a certain pickup this November, barring something truly unforeseen. Remains at #1 from my June rankings.
  2. District 42 (57%-37% Hillary Clinton district): With the retirement of long-time incumbent Del. Dave Albo (R), Democratic nominee Kathy Tran has a great shot – again, almost a certain pickup for Democrats – at being the next delegate from this district. Tran’s opponent is “extreme Tea Party activist” Lolita Mancheno-Smoak (check out her Palinesque fiasco of an interview on the Kojo Nnamdi Show here). Remains at #2 from my June rankings; go Kathy Tran go!
  3. District 13 (54%-40% Hillary Clinton district): This Prince William County/Manassas Park City district’s a must-win, with crazy Del. “Sideshow Bob” Marshall (R-Outer Space) holding it down and Democrat Danica Roem looking to send him to a merciful retirement. The key here, as it is in many districts, is to minimize Democratic voter “dropoff” from the presidential election. More good news – Roem’s been raising a ton of money, with $166k cash on hand as of the end of August (compared to just $95k for Marshall). Plus, Roem’s been getting reams of (mostly positive) publicity and has been working hard and smart. So yeah, I’m moving this one up a notch from the June rankings.
  4. District 67 (58%-36% Hillary Clinton district): This Fairfax County/Loudoun County district has an incumbent Republican (Del. Jim LeMunyon) sitting in a big-time Clinton seat, and Democrat Karrie Delaney – with $98k cash on hand at the end of August, a bit more than the $90k LeMunyon had on hand – challenging him. This one remains an excellent pickup opportunity, even if it’s moved down slightly (one notch) in the rankings from June.
  5. District 32 (57%-38% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat David Reid is running against corporate tool Del. Tag Greason (R) in this Loudoun County district. We definitely need to win this one, and can certainly do so if Democrats turn out in strong numbers this November 7. Reid’s fundraising has been impressive, with $140k cash on hand, just a bit less than Greason ($157k) at the end of August. Holding this one at #5 in the rankings.
  6. District 31 (51%-44% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Elizabeth Guzman is the nominee to take on Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R) in this Prince William County/Fauquier County district. As for fundraising, Guzman had $111k cash on hand at the end of August, slightly more than Lingamfelter’s $101k. If we’re having a good night on November 7, we should definitely be winning this district. If we’re not, then we probably won’t be winning this district. Holding this one steady at #6 in the rankings…
  7. District 51 (50%-44% Hillary Clinton district): Democratic nominee Hala Ayala (see here as she and Tom Perriello discuss health care) is taking on Del. Rich Anderson (R) in this PW County district. A winnable seat, given a strong candidate (which we have) and a strong campaign (ditto). The only caveat is that while, so far, Ayala’s fundraising has been solid ($79k cash on hand at the end of August), she still had only about half of what her Republican opponent had ($148k) at the end of August. So…we’ll see, but I remain hopeful about this Prince William County district, which holds steady from #7 in June.
  8. District 12 (47%-45% Hillary Clinton district):  Democrats have a strong candidate in this Giles County/Montgomery County/Pulaski County/Radford City district with Chris Hurst, but Clinton barely won it over Trump and there’s a Republican incumbent (Joseph Yost) holding it down since 2012, so…it’s winnable but won’t be easy. On the positive side, Hurst had $147k on hand at the end of August, more than Yost’s $133k. Again, if we’re winning this district on November 7, it means we’re having a strong election night. Moving this one up two notches from #10 back in June.
  9. District 72 (49%-45% Hillary Clinton district): With the announcement by incumbent Del. Jimmie Massie (R) that he will not seek reelection to this increasingly “blue” Henrico County district, Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg certainly would seem to have a shot if the anti-Trump “wave” is as strong in November as it is now! VanValkenburg had $68k at the end of August, a bit less than his Republican opponent, Eddie Whitlock, who had $78k. This is a district that will tip “blue” if we’re having a truly excellent night on November 7. This one also moves down slightly (also one notch) from June.
  10. District 40 (51%-43% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Donte Tanner is running against the very tough Del. Tim Hugo (R) in this Fairfax/Prince William Counties district. Will need a “wave” and a strong campaign to win this one, especially given that Hugo had $174k on hand at the end of August, versus just $70k for Tanner. If we’re winning this district on election night, it means we’re getting into “blue wave” territory; moves up four notches from June.
  11. District 73 (50%-43% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Debra Rodman is taking on Del. John O’Bannon (R) in increasingly “blue” Henrico County. Will be tough, but you never know, especially if we continue to see Democrats “over-perform” by 8, 10 or more points as they have in special elections for Congress so far this year. At the end of August, Rodman had $43k on hand, while O’Bannon had three times more ($127k). Moving this one up four notches from June.
  12. District 50 (53%-41% Hillary Clinton district): Del. Jackson Miller (R) lost a special election for Prince William County Clerk of the Circuit Court to Democrat Jackie Smith in mid-April, leaving him in a seemingly weakened condition (at the time, anyway) to fend off Democrat Lee Carter in November. With the passage of several months, and the fact that Miller has FAR more cash on hand ($217k) than Carter ($31k), I’d say this one is still winnable, due to the district lean, but will require a significant “Blue Wave” to do so. Holds steady at #12.
  13. District 10 (49%-45% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Wendy Gooditis is running against Del. Randy Minchew (R) in this Loudoun, Frederick and Clarke County district. At the end of August, Minchew had $222k, while Gooditis had $92k. Big time “blue wave,” anyone? This one moves up four notches from June.
  14. District 68 (51%-41% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Dawn Adams is taking on Del. Manoli Loupassi (R) in this Chesterfield County/Henrico County/Richmond City district. Adams had just $36k cash on hand at the end of August,  FAR less than Loupassi’s $187k. So…this is still possible, given the district lean, but if we’re winning here, it means we’re having an incredible night on 11/7. This one moves down one notch from June.
  15. District 85 (won by Trump by 1 point; won by Cooch by 2 points, etc.): Democrat Cheryl Turpin running against Del. Rocky Holcomb (R) in this Virginia Beach district. Note that Turpin lost to Holcomb 53%-47% in a special election in January, but that turnout should be MUCH higher in November. Again, I think we need a super-strong wave to win this one. On a positive note, Turpin had $95k on hand at the end of August, with Holcomb at only $51k. This one moves up two notches from June.
  16. District 94 (49%-44% Hillary Clinton district): This Newport News district is currently held by Del. David Yancey (R), with Shelly Simonds the Democratic challenger. This one’s still a possible win, but it really won’t be easy, especially since Simonds only had $43k cash on hand at the end of August, compared to Yancey’s $219k. This one moves down five notches from June.
  17. District 21 (49%-45% Hillary Clinton district)Kelly Fowler (D) is taking on Del. Ron Villanueva (R), who had a lackluster Republican primary, winning far fewer votes than Fowler did in her primary. The problems here are: a) it’s not an easy district for Democrats; b) there’s a Republican incumbent; c) money, with Villanueva at $63k and Fowler at only $20k at the end of August. So…we’ll see, but if we’re winning this one, it means we’re having an incredible night on 11/7. This one moves down eight notches from June.
  18. District 100 (49%-47% Hillary Clinton district): Democrat Willie Randall is running against Del. Rob Bloxom (R) in this Accomack and Northampton Counties + Norfolk City district. Another tough one, especially given that Randall only had $14k on hand at the end of August, while Bloxom had $71k. This one moves down two notches from June.

Now, here are the latest rankings from the respected Cook Political Report. My main disagreement with these rankings is that there should be at LEAST one intermediary category between “Probable Democratic Pickups” (where I’d only include Jennifer Carroll Foy and Kathy Tran) and “Toss Ups.” I’d move Reid and Delaney down to “Lean Democratic Pickup” and Guzman to “Slight Lean Democratic Pickup.” I’d also move Roem UP to “Lean Democratic Pickup.” And I’d move Hurst UP to “Slight Lean Democratic Pickup,” while moving Ayala – and possibly Tanner – up to “Toss Up” Finally, I’d move a couple of the “Toss Ups” down, to “Lean Republican Hold” – Fowler and Simonds, for instance.

Probable Democratic Pickups:
District
Republican Incumbent
Democratic Nominee
Region
2013 Governor
2014 Senate
2016 President
2nd OPEN (Dudenhefer) (R) Jennifer Foy (D) Prince William County McAuliffe +11 Warner +6 Clinton +17
31st Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R) Elizabeth Guzman (D) Prince William County McAuliffe +3 Gillespie +2 Clinton +7
32nd Del. Tag Greason (R) David Reid (D) Loudoun County McAuliffe +7 Warner +2 Clinton +19
42nd OPEN (Albo) (R) Kathy Tran (D) Fairfax County McAuliffe +6 Warner +2 Clinton +20
67th Del. Jim LeMunyon (R) Karrie Delaney (D) Fairfax County McAuliffe +8 Warner +6 Clinton +22

 

Toss Ups:
District
Republican Incumbent
Democratic Nominee
Region
2013 Governor
2014 Senate
2016 President
12th Del. Joseph Yost (R) Chris Hurst (D) Blacksburg McAuliffe +6 Warner +8 Clinton +2
13th Del. Bob Marshall (R) Danica Roem (D) Prince William County McAuliffe +1 Gillespie +4 Clinton +14
21st Del. Ron Villanueva (R) Kelly Fowler (D) Virginia Beach McAuliffe +4 Warner +3 Clinton +4
72nd OPEN (Massie) (R) Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) Henrico County Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +6 Clinton +4
94th Del. David Yancey (R) Shelly Simonds (D) Newport News McAuliffe +3 Warner +2 Clinton +5

 

Democratic Reaches:
District
Republican Incumbent
Democratic Nominee
Region
2013 Governor
2014 Senate
2016 President
10th Del. Randy Minchew (R) Wendy Gooditis (D) Loudoun County Cuccinelli +3 Gillespie +8 Clinton +4
40th Del. Tim Hugo (R) Donte Tanner (D) Fairfax County Cuccinelli +7 Gillespie +11 Clinton +8
50th Del. Jackson Miller (R) Lee Carter (D) Manassas Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +3 Clinton +12
51st Del. Rich Anderson (R) Hala Ayala (D) Prince William County Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +7 Clinton +6
68th Del. Manoli Loupassi (R) Dawn Adams (D) Chesterfield County Cuccinelli +2 Gillespie +4 Clinton +10
73rd Del. John O’Bannon (R) Debra Rodman (D) Henrico County Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +5 Clinton +7
85th Del. Rocky Holcomb (R) Cheryl Turpin (D) Virginia Beach Cuccinelli +2 Gillespie +3 Trump +1
100th Del. Rob Bloxom (R) Willie Randall (D) Eastern Shore McAuliffe +2 Warner +1 Clinton +2

 

Tidal Wave Territory:
District
Republican Incumbent
Democratic Nominee
Region
2013 Governor
2014 Senate
2016 President
26th Del. Tony Wilt (R) Brent Finnegan (D) Harrisonburg Cuccinelli +17 Gillespie +20 Trump +9
27th Del. Roxann Robinson (R) Larry Barnett (D) Chesterfield County Cuccinelli +8 Gillespie +8 Trump +4
28th OPEN (Howell) (R) Joshua Cole (D) Fredericksburg Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +9 Trump +4
33rd Del. Dave LaRock (R) Tia Walbridge (D) Loudoun County Cuccinelli +15 Gillespie +20 Trump +16
62nd Del. Riley Ingram (R) Sheila Bynum-Coleman (D) Hopewell Cuccinelli +9 Gillespie +7 Trump +6
83rd Del. Chris Stolle (R) David Rose-Carmack (D) Virginia Beach Cuccinelli +4 Gillespie +9 Trump +8
84th Del. Glenn Davis (R) Veronica Coleman (D) Virginia Beach Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +5 Trump +5

Finally, the following rankings are from the Republican-leaning Virginia business group, Virginia FREE, which is led by former Republican House of Delegates member Chris Saxman. I’m not 100% clear on what they mean by their ranking order, based on which are “most competitive,” but these 20 races do overlap heavily with the top-18 list I did back in June in terms of the districts included, so that’s a good sign. The main differences I have with these are I wouldn’t consider Del. Kathleen Murphy or Del. Mike Mullin to be vulnerable this cycle. Del. John Bell could be vulnerable, given how much money his Republican opponent has raised, but I’m still confident that Bell will prevail, given that this is a 60%-35% Clinton district and a 53%-42% McAuliffe district.

An analysis of five statewide polls taken after Labor Day for the race for Virginia Governor reveal very interesting results. Linked below are the five that used Likely Voters (LVs) as their polling universe. A sixth poll conducted by Fox News used Registered Voters (RVs) and that universe is not as useful as the other five.
2013 Election Result
Democrat Terry McAuliffe won 47.7 to 45.2 over Republican Ken Cuccinelli or 2.5%. Libertarian Robert Sarvis received 6.5% of the vote that year.
To better understand where things really are in the races, the most logical thing to do is to average the five polls because the polls are so different.
Lt.Governor (D) Ralph Northam’s numbers go 47, 44, 51, 44, and 42 or 45.6 average
(R) Ed Gillespie’s numbers have a tighter range 41, 43, 41, 39, and 41 or 41.2 average
Northam leads by 4.4%
If one considers the Quinnipiac Poll (51-41) to be an outlier, as some folks in both parties suggest, and remove it from the average the race is 44.25 to 41.25.
Northam leads by 3%.
One has to remember that in 2016, some outliers were more accurate than others.
Reading through all the polls, one finds big differences in Party ID and how independents vote.
The average Democratic ID is +5.6 over the GOP ID with the Quinnipiac Poll and +5.25 without it.
One question in the University of Mary Washington poll stood out – the Gov3 question on page six. It asks “Regardless of how you might vote in the 2017 election for governor in Virginia, do you think most of your neighbors will for (Ed Gillespie, the Republican, most will vote for (Ralph Northam, the Democrat), or will most split their votes? (Randomized on earlier question)
Is that the question to track or is it an outlier?
Top 20 Ranking of House of Delegates Races for 2017
Big thanks to our friend and ally the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) – their data sourcing is fantastic! These rankings have NOT changed since last week.
Guide
First Number is the Ranking followed by the District #
The next line is the district performance in 2014 US Senate, 2016 POTUS, and 2013 Governor
COH = Cash On Hand advantage as of August 30.
[ +] is the performance relative to GOP Gubernatorial nominee in 2013.
Bold is a key data point
Two groups have announced they are targeting certain races in Virginia this fall.
*Let America Vote – ten races all in Northern Virginia. Their focus is targeting “voting rights supporters”
*Progressive Turn Out Project – ten races – six in Northern Virginia, two in Hampton Roads, and two in Richmond (western Henrico) Their focus is “inconsistent Democratic voters”
**Both – five races
#1 (Same)
13 – **Delegate Bob Marshall (R-Prince William/Manassas Park)
Warner 47 Clinton 54 McAuliffe 48
COH Roem +67k
Roem 62k In Kind
2015 Marshall won 56-43
2013 Marshall won by 498 votes or 1.9% [+4]
This race continues to be the most competitive House of Delegates contest this year due to the incumbent’s relative weakness during the last gubernatorial election in 2013 and the funding raising prowess of Roem. Confirming this is the financial support she is getting from her party.
#2 (up from #3)
67 – **Delegate Jim LeMunyon (R-Fairfax/Loudoun)
Warner 52 Clinton 58 McAuliffe 51
COH Delaney +7k
2015 – LeMunyon uncontested
2013 LeMunyon won 54-45 [+11]
LeMunyon’s crossover appeal was higher than Greason’s in 2013 and that’s why he was ranked lower than the 32nd; however, Delaney has expanded her Cash on Hand advantage since the last report and she is receiving solid support from the Democrats. LeMunyon’s lack of an opponent in 2015 could point to some initial inertia relative to Greason.
#3 (down from #2)
32 – *Delegate Tag Greason (R-Loudoun)
Warner 50 Clinton 56 McAuliffe 51
COH Greason +17k
2015 Greason won 53-47 vs same candidate from 2013
2013 Greason won 51-49 [+7]
Greason had a close call in 2013 after being uncontested in 2011. Reid outraised Greason in this report, but the amount of money that will be spent here should increase significantly. Neither campaign will want to go up on expensive Northern Virginia television so look for heavy spends on direct mail, social media, and paid staff.
#4 (no change)
31 – **Delegate Scott Lingamfelter  (R- Prince William/Fauquier)
Warner 48 Clinton 51 McAuliffe 49
COH Guzman 10k
2015 Lingamfelter won 53-47
2013 Lingamfelter won by 228 votes or 1% over now State Senator Jeremy McPike (D)
[+4]
Guzman is receiving significant support from the Democrats and shows more COH than incumbent Lingamfelter. Lingamfelter had a close call in 2013 versus now Senator Jeremy McPike and won by six points in 2015. Guzman had almost 3000 contributors under $100 in this report who kicked in over $33,000 which combined with $54,000 In Kind support – the question for this race is will the outside support translate into votes. Key race to watch nationally.
#5 (up from #7)
12 Delegate Joseph Yost (R-Montgomery/Giles/Pulaski/Radford) Warner 52 Clinton 47 McAuliffe 48
COH Hurst 14k
2015 Yost won 58-42
2013 Libertarian candidate for Governor Robert Sarvis won 10%
2013 Yost won 52-47 [+10]
Challenger Chris Hurst put up some big fundraising numbers -again- in the 12th which is centered around Blacksburg where incumbent Delegate Yost had a relatively close call in 2013. This race is already up on relatively inexpensive television in the New River Valley. The [+10] put up by Yost shows his crossover appeal.
#6 SAME
51 – *Delegate Rich Anderson (R-Prince William)
Warner 45 Clinton 50 Cuccinelli 48
COH Anderson +69k
2015 Anderson uncontested
2013 Anderson won 54-46 [+6]
The 51st is going to be a barn burner. The Democrats have fielded a solid challenger in Hala Ayala and are funding her. Incumbent Delegate Anderson who has a strong work ethic. Anderson finished 6 points ahead of Cuccinelli who barely won the district in 2013. Polling down the stretch will determine just how much support Ayala receives in the final weeks.
#7 (previously unranked)
2 – **OPEN – Del. Dudenhefer retiring (R-Prince William/Stafford)
Warner 52 Clinton 56 McAuliffe 53
Democrat Jennifer Foy
Republican Michael Makee
COH Foy 26k
2015 Dudenhefer won by 125 votes
2013 Dudenhefer lost to Michael Futrell by 223 votes. Dudenhefer [+7]
This race was unranked in our last ranking due to the Republican nominee’s withdrawal. Had the Republicans not not put in the resources they have, this race would be off the board. Similarly, the Democrats invested late in the period which shows a race in flux. The 2nd would normally be ranked higher and this race could move up the rankings.
#8 – (Previously unranked)
42 – *OPEN – Del. Albo retiring (R-Fairfax)
Warner 50 Clinton 57 McAuliffe 50
Democrat Kathy Tran
COH Tran +43k
2015 Albo won 63-37
2013 Albo won 60-40 [+16]
The one question – from our last ranking – has been answered in the 42nd District. The GOP is sending in some resources to fund the open seat of Delegate Dave Albo who won by 20 points in 2013. This race will be ranked higher if the resources pick up on both sides. Democrats love their chances for a pick up with their nominee Kathy Tran while the Republicans have fielded Lolita Mancheno-Smoak. This district should start to see some national attention as two minority women vie for a possible Democratic pick up.
#9 (up from #11)
85 – Delegate Rocky Holcomb (R-Virginia Beach)
Trump 47 Gillespie 50 Cuccinelli 48
COH – Turpin 44k
2017 Holcomb defeated Turpin 53-47 in Special Election
2015 Now Congressman Scott Taylor uncontested
2013 Taylor won 56-43 [+8]
Holcomb defeated his opponent, Turpin, in special election earlier this year. Clearly, Turpin found the secret sauce on fundraising following the 2016 election and continues to hold a sizable lead against the incumbent. As of yet, the 85th is not targeted by outside groups but the Democrats did invest late in the reporting period and dropped $37,800 just yesterday. This race could break the Top Five before it is
#10 (Same)
72 – *OPEN – Del. Jimmie Massie retiring (R-Henrico)
Warner 45 Clinton 49 Cuccinelli 46
COH – Whitlock 10k
2015 Delegate Massie was uncontested
2013 Delegate Massie won 93%
2013 Libertarian for Governor Sarvis won 12%
VERY interesting dynamics in the Open Seat 72nd which has not had a contest for the last two cycles. The Democrats have started to invest here while Whitlock loaned himself another $35,000.
#11 (down from #5)
50 – **Delegate Jackson Miller (R-Prince William/Manassas City)
Warner 47 Clinton 52 Cuccinelli 48
COH Miller +186k
2015 Miller won 58-41
2013 Miller won 54-44 [+6]
Miller has expanded his COH advantage to almost $200,000 while Carter’s fundraising seems weak. This race should be watched down the stretch for any late support for the challenger Carter.
#12 (up from #16)
87 *Delegate John Bell (D-Loudoun)
Clinton 60 Warner 52 McAuliffe 53
COHKolla +35k
2015 Bell defeated Choung Nguyen 50-48 or 320 votes, total spend $1.1MM
2013 David Ramadan defeated Bell by 187 votes, total spend $1.8MM [+8]
Republicans held this Loudoun district up to two years ago and Bell barely won in 2015. Democrats spent heavily at the end of this reporting period – Bell had $70k In Kind support. This diversion of resources is an important factor in other House races which could have received this support. Kolla’s fundraising is keeping this race close and impacting others.
#13 (down from #9)
94 – *Delegate David Yancey (R-Newport News)
Warner 50 Clinton 49 McAuliffe 48
COH Yancey +176k
2015 Yancey won 57-42
2013 Yancey won 51-49 or 543 votes [+4]
2013 Libertarian for Governor Sarvis won 7% and there is a Libertarian on the ballot in the 94th.
This race saw the original Democratic nominee withdraw and Simonds, Yancey’s opponent from 2015, enter. Yancey still holds a commanding COH advantage, but Simonds put up some respectable numbers to somewhat narrow the gap. Until the Democrats decide to invest heavily here, this race will remain out of the top 10.
#14 (down from #12)
93 – Delegate Mike Mullin (D-Newport News/Williamsburg) Warner 55 Clinton 57 McAuliffe 54
COH Mullin +136k
2013 now Sen. Monty Mason (D) defeated incumbent Republican Mike Watson 52-48. Watson [+8]
$1.8MM total spend
2016 Special Election Mullin defeated Cordasco 53-46
This is a rematch of the 2016 Special Election following the election of then Delegate Monty Mason to the Senate after Senator John Miller passed away. Republicans like their candidate Cordasco and have started to invest thinking she lost by seven in 2016 due to the the Clinton margins. Mullin, on the other hand, expanded his COH advantage. While this race went down in our rankings that is really a hold due to rise of the two previously unranked races. Could be a late breaker. Cuccinelli got 40% in the 2013 gubernatorial contest.
#15 (down from #9)
21 – *Delegate Ron Villanueva (R – Virginia Beach/Chesapeake)
Warner 50 Clinton 49 McAuliffe 49
COH Villanueva +27k
2015 Villanueva won 57-43 in 2013 rematch
2013 Villanueva won 54-45 [+9]
Although Villanueva had a negative story run in the local paper, Democrats – to date – have not invested heavily here. This district was to be targeted for “inconsistent Democratic voters” and could move back up the board. Possible sleeper district.
#16 (up from #18)
10 – Delegate Randy Minchew (R-Loudoun/Frederick/Clarke)
Warner 45 Clinton 49 Cuccinelli 49
COH Minchew +128k
2015 Minchew won 62-38
2013 Minchew won 57-43 [+8]
Minchew has over 220k in the bank but Gooditis has been very thrifty with her money and has 92,000 COH. The Democrats have started to spend some money here – this could be a race to watch down the stretch.
#16 (down from #13)
40 – *Delegate Tim Hugo (R-Fairfax/Prince William)
Warner 43 Clinton 51 Cuccinelli 51
COH Hugo +104k
2015 Hugo won 65-35 vs same candidate as 2013
2013 Hugo won 60-40 [+9]
Cuccinelli won this district and incumbent Delegate Hugo pulled 9 points ahead of him. Tanner has received solid Democratic support in the targeted 40th while Hugo continues his triple digit fundraising advantage along with key endorsements from police, fire fighters, and teachers.
#18 (Down from #15)
68 – Delegate Manoli Loupassi (R-Richmond/Chesterfield)
Warner 46 Clinton 51 McAuliffe 52
COH – Loupassi +151k
2015 Loupassi won 61-37 vs same opponent as 2013 who ran as an Independent
2013 Loupassi won 63-37 [+21]
Loupassi finished 21 points ahead of Cuccinelli in 2013 and expanded his fundraising advantage. Adams received some Democratic Caucus support late in the period while posting a solid fundraising report overall.
#19 (Down from #12)
73 – *Delegate John O’Bannon (R- Henrico)
Warner 46 Clinton 50 Cuccinelli 46
COH O’Bannon +85k
2015 O’Bannon uncontested
2013 O’Bannon won 94%
2013 Gubernatorial Libertarian Candidate Robert Sarvis won 12% in this district
Delegate O’Bannon, uncontested since 2009, continues to hold a strong fundraising lead. Rodman received some Democratic Caucus support late in the period following the four way nomination.
#20 (previously unranked)
34 – *Incumbent Kathleen Murphy
(D-Fairfax Loudoun)
Warner 51 Clinton 56 McAuliffe 52
Republican Cheryl Buford
COH Murphy +173k
2015 – Murphy beat Republican Craig Parisot by less than 200 votes with a total spend of $2 million.
2013 Congresswoman Barbara Comstock won by 422 or +1.4% over Murphy Comstock [+8]
From our last ranking –
“Unless there is a shocking fundraising report, Delegate Kathleen Murphy is well positioned in the 34th to increase her winning total from 2015.”
Well, the report this period is not “shocking” but the House Democratic Caucus did spend $20,000 late in the period which indicates some weakness in the district. Murphy did expand her fundraising lead in a district that spent over $2MM in 2015.
  • Laura Lee

    Rob Whittman’s district is not competitive?

    • ??? Rob Wittman is a member of Congress (VA-01), not the Virginia House of Delegates.

    • old_redneck

      Wittman is a member of Congress where he allegedly represents the First Congressional District, although no one here can remember the last time he was in the district. He faces re-election in 2018. Already four Democrats have lined up to challenge him. He consistently wins 60-40; knocking him off is a long shot.

  • Josh Howard

    It would be cool if the state Democratic Party would actually support Lee Carter.

    • It’s really the Virginia House Democratic Caucus that makes decisions on how/where to allocate limited resources; not sure DPVA has much/anything to do with it. Regardless, they will have some tough calls to make in coming weeks.

      • Josh Howard

        I know how the system works. It’s very telling that Carter himself says he has received little support from the Democratic Party (and a lot more support from DSA) and folks like myself in SW Virginia can’t get people in Richmond to respond to emails or phone calls.

        • Ben Tribbett

          I was just commenting to someone yesterday, I’ve probably attended 100 events this year for Dems, and I have yet to be in the same room as Lee. He’s running a different kind of campaign it appears. Let’s see how it works.

          • notjohnsmosby

            A different kind of campaign: a losing one.

            He swore off donations from corporations and PACs, so I don’t know why he’s complaining that the House Caucus isn’t backing him.

  • R Mcclelland

    What about Kelly DeLucia in the 96th?

    • That’s a Trump 54%-Clinton 40%, Gillespie 57%-Warner 41%, etc. district (e.g overwhelmingly “red”), therefore didn’t make my list (or Cook’s or Virginia FREE’s).

  • Kai Degner

    It would be awesome to update this table with results from the election to see who overperformed!