Home 2017 Races Virginia Election Day 2017: Open Thread

Virginia Election Day 2017: Open Thread

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It’s Election Day 2017 here in Virginia – the first statewide election since the Orange Gropenfuhrer was “elected” last November – and we all need to get out and vote for the Democratic ticket and against the Trump-loving Teapublican ticket. Polls are open from 6 am until 7 pm, which gives you 13 hours to exercise one of your most precious rights (and duties, IMHO) as an American – voting.

What are you seeing and hearing out there? What’s turnout like in your neck of the woods? Please let Blue Virginia readers know in the comments section of this post. Thanks.

UPDATE 6 pm: For what it’s worth…

  • Need any more motivation to vote Democratic today? How about this from the Orange Gropenfuhrer?

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/trumpgillespietweets.jpg

  • Perseus1986

    LOW voter presence where I just voted in Columbia Pike in S. Arlington. Last year around 6:30 am the line was out the door and people were filling ballots while waiting in line for a booth. Of course the lower the position, the less the turnout, but this was definitely not proportional. I only waited behind one couple that I chose to follow rather than walk past and most of the voting stalls to fill your ballot were empty.

    Northern Virginia can only tip the scales if people actually get out and vote. Get out and vote! It took me all of 15 minutes, including the walk from my apartment to the school and back.

    • Not good.

    • 21stcenturyMBA

      Northam is very similar to Mark Warner he isn’t liberal enough to excite your liberal base its going to be close.

    • LibertarianDemocrat

      I don’t think we can expect it to be like last year; off years are never like Presidential years. But it’s got to be better than 2013 and 2014.

      • Chris

        Not sure about 2013…I think that the government had a huge impact.

  • John Manard

    Voted at 6am in Lauderdale 408 Tuckahoe far west side of Richmond, VA. hopefully soon to be part of Schuyler Van Valkenburgs district. Was a mix of older and middle aged voters, mix of ethnicities. Maybe 20 to 30 people moved in and out why i stood in line and voted

  • Heatherfeather

    Light turnout in Alexandria at 6am. Parking lot not filled. Not good news for Dems.

  • Anthony Shifflett

    Give it time. Precinct I am working had 200 in 1 1/2 hours…

  • VERY busy at strongly Democratic Virginia Square in Arlington; I just voted, was #352 at 7:51 am, with about 30 in line when I left!

    • Note: Virginia Square had a TOTAL of 1,120 votes cast in 2013.

      • LibertarianDemocrat

        That’s a good sign!

      • A_Siegel

        Does that 2013 total include the absentee votes? If so, the 352 is ‘even bigger’ in proportion (e.g., because of all the absentee votes that are ‘on top’ of the 352).

  • Del. Marcus Simon (D-Falls Church): “My home precinct had close to 300 at 7:30; that’s a little less than 25% of 2013 total Vote – in the 1st 90 minutes. And the parking lot was full and people were steadily coming through”

  • Arlington elections: “Arlington turnout estimate at 8 am is 12%”

  • Just got this report:

    Downtown Richmondprecinct – very Dem. Right before 8a, vote # 401, about 30 still in line. Total in 2013 – 1400, in 2016 2292

    In 402, also Richmond (also very Dem), 300 have already voted, similar numbers to 2016 for that time

  • Reuters correspondent: “Poll official at my Arlington, VA polling place remarking on the line ‘Haven’t had this in years. Even in the presidential race.'”

  • Quizzical

    First two hours at Centreville High School had an average turnout. The check-in system is more automated, so when I voted there, no lines.

  • sonofkenny

    Ashburn Precinct 621, Dominion Trail Elementary. Don’t know what percentage, or how many had voted. No line, but all booths were filled and seemed like a steady stream of folks walking in. 7:30 am.

  • Chris

    High turnout at my polling place in Arlington at 7:30. ~10 people in line to check in.

    However, I usually vote earlier in the morning so I don’t know how atypical this is.

  • Tanner Stroupe

    I voted at 8:30 and was number 280 in the East Wytheville precinct. There has been very steady turnout here all day.

  • Del. Marcus Simon reports: “31% of 2013 total votes at Marshall Precinct by 8:30 this morning.” That’s a heavily Dem precinct in Fairfax County.

  • @Sam_Rasoul 22m22 minutes ago: Official at Hollins Precinct told me near Presidential turnout. I have been to half of Roanoke precincts all are steady.

  • My wife just reported she was voter #733 at 9:47 am at strongly Dem VA Square precinct in Arlington. I was #352 at 7:51 am, so doubled in two hours.

  • SUPER-blue Glebe Precinct in Arlington – voter 504 at 9:45. In 2013, total votes there were 1,065.

  • Photo: Long line in heavily blue Falls Church just before 10 am.

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fallschurchline.jpg

  • old_redneck

    In response to an earlier comment: Yes, absentee votes are counted in a single Central Absentee Precinct, not at individual precincts.

    Also statewide reporting problems with electronic poll books that uses specific software. Vendor confirms they saw the problem couple of days ago, too late to correct it. Precincts having problems are disabling all but one electronic poll book and problem disappears. May cause slow check in at some precincts.

  • Ben Kyber

    City of Richmond, Near West End, Precinct 104 (First Presbyterian Church). With the exception of 2016, solid R district with lots of young families/professionals and a good bit of the country club set. Hillary (750-595), Cuccinelli (511-456), Romney (968-520), McDonnell (751-303), McCain (900-527). In other words, this is where the “never Trump,” vote with their pocketbooks Rs live.

    About 8:15 a.m., appx. vote # 330. Maybe five people in line and 30-second wait. More D signs than R signs, but a smattering of both.

  • Anthony Shifflett

    Westridge 511 has 519 of 3203. Does not include 200+ absentee. So. Heavy turnout.

    • Anthony Shifflett

      24.4% turnout already. Including absentees.

  • Another Scott

    At 10 AM in Stratford (#611 Fairfax County) I was #289 on one of two counting machines. Turnout seems pretty heavy (much higher than the Primary, maybe even comparable to a Presidential election).

    Fingers crossed. Go Team Blue!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  • sonofkenny

    Jerry Foltz reports 650 votes at 10 am at Deer Park Elementary in Centreville, Fairfax County (Precinct 921). If I read the results right 2013 total was 1470 votes. So about 42%.

  • lindab

    Newport News has Presidential turnout today.

  • jessie

    Heavily D precinct Machen in Hampton had surpassed 500 voters at 9am. Total voters in 2013: 1660. Swing precinct Booker – but trends D – was at 415 at 9am w/ heavy African American turnout. 2013 turnout (Terry did win this precinct in 2013) was 1502.

  • mark

    Serious question… is there any BAD areas for Northam?
    Anywhere we can see turnout in red areas? Just to make sure we don’t get too excited too quickly…

  • A_Siegel

    Tribbett is looking gleeful. https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927897651286302720 “I’ve been working Virginia elections since 1994 and never seen a worse three hour morning for Republicans before. Complete melt down.”

  • Chris

    Not to be a debbie downer, but don’t most people either vote before work or after work? These vote totals we’re hearing from 8 am, 9 am, 10 am…they don’t seem overly high to me. Thoughts?

  • woodrowfan

    My western Fairfax County precinct is at about 26% turnout so far so on pace to beat 2013. Been steady busy all morning. Judging from the sample ballots people are carrying a bit more Democratic than usual in an already blue precinct. FWIW the Democratic GOTV effort here has been very busy.

  • AAP

    Arlington-Fillmore (26). 819 voters as of 10:45 AM. In 2013, 1,452 voters total. In 2014, 1,446 voters total.

  • Antonio

    When I showed up to volunteer at the South Arlington office, there had been 12 volunteers already at 8 am. When I came back at 10, over 30 volunteers had gone through!

    As of this morning, every canvass packet from South Arlington had gone out twice since Saturday, and they’re starting the third round now!

  • Morris Meyer

    Forest Grove in Loudoun County voted 663 at noon. We did 1325 in 2013 so perhaps turnout 10% higher by 7pm.

  • Michael Beer

    cold rain hitting northern virginia most of the day. farther southeast, it is warmer and rain starting in middle of afternoon. Rural southwestern virginia, better weather. overall not a good weather arrangement for Democrats.

  • C L

    Albemarle was at 14% as of 9am. It was 20% last year at the same time during a presidential race, so this strikes me as decent (although the comparison isn’t ideal). https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fbf623cf4193b360e3bdac17a09b572543cf22ccb33f450fcf7de5fc77f8a6d4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a0cf05d5dde8d2312f6edadb77ddeabd86d6ee203cd40c9094f56d64ae79e082.png

    • C L

      Percentages are for turnout btw.

      That would be 70% of 2016 turnout. Assuming Albemarle’s total turnout was about 75% last year and the turnout rates hold, that would put the county over 50% turnout by 7pm. Again, not a exact comparison and of course “every election is different.”

  • mario

    PWC has 50,000 voter so far come out.

  • Heatherfeather

    Prediction-
    Election will be very close, hundreds of votes difference.

    I’ve heard of decent turnout downstate…nervous but have steeled myself.

    • LibertarianDemocrat

      Just curious, why do you say that? You got people like Ben above saying they think Dems are doing pretty well. Is it just downstate turnout?

    • Taelon

      happens much less often than people think. Vert few races are decided by under 2% let alone 5% for instance

  • Nelson County votes as of 10 am. Note that Nelson had a total of 5,315 votes in 2013…slightly in favor of Terry McAuliffe.

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/nelsoncountyvotes.jpg

  • Ben “Not Larry Sabato” tweets:

    “No, Henrico is also changing. D’s may take over the Board there today for first time in modern era.”

    “Midway point in day- Republicans have picked up a little ground in western VA- guessing its the weather, but NOVA still way up.”

    “Last November, some of the NoVA polls had hardly any voters in evening because Dems had voted so much early in day”

    “In NoVA you used to be able to count on Dems in morning and afternoon rushes equally, but much more morning now”

    “Last two hours were better for R’s in that they stopped bleeding everywhere, but I don’t see any signs they gained back any ground.”

    “Hearing Republicans are giving up on a couple of House incumbents to try to save others- not seeing Dems moving resources. (mistake?)”

    “In Virginia that is a demographic hard for R’s to beat. Means Loudoun is gone.”

    “The reason I say that- those are usually the voters stacked at 6 am in the outer suburbs to vote first and not seen much today.”

    “One other interesting thing- NOVA R base has always been nat security heavy (Pentagon, def contractors, CIA, etc). They dont seem R today.”

    “Turnout just gives us clues- keep voting. Who knows- these could be Republicans crowding polling places in NoVA. (laugh)”

    “Got a ways to go, but from morning turnout Ralph Northam is on track to beat McAuliffe, Kaine and Warner wins as Governor. Biggest since 85.”

    “The Dem surge today is noticeably higher in higher income precincts- could impact where there are coattails tonight.”

    “Just talked to someone close to Barbara Comstock- they are worried how much GOP infrastructure will be lost in Ed’s defeat today. One of Barbara’s big advantages had been 90% of local/state electeds in 10th were “R” – that seems to be changing quickly today”

    “Between absentee voting and this morning’s first three hours, Republicans have a BIG deficit to overcome midday.”

    “I’ve been working Virginia elections since 1994 and never seen a worse three hour morning for Republicans before. Complete melt down.”

    “8 am and Republican Delegates are freaking out at low turnout for Ed. They will have to do it themselves as Ed is collapsing.”

    • Chris

      I’m a little unclear for the basis for the claim that Ed is collapsing and that Loudoun is going to go for Ralph. Talking to contacts on the ground?

      • Yeah, not sure…need to ask Ben for more detail.

        • Laura Lee

          Did you, If so please share

          • Haven’t reached him yet…

          • Laura Lee

            Would love to know when you find out

          • StoptheChop

            Hmm. He’s suggesting that it’s tightening everywhere- that turnout in NoVA is declining and that it may come down to absentees. Does that make sense (note- I’m in NYC and don’t know all the intricacies of VA voting patterns)

          • I’m skeptical.

  • C L

    Fairfax at 16% as of 10am. Not sure how that compares to previous years. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/066c781854f0d63ba820e9741afebe932f41f60f8cfe533f98fc667ccd52edf6.png

    • Chris

      Jeebus, Fairfax is gigantic.

    • sonofkenny

      306,161 total cast in 2013…so 35% of 2013 by 10 am.

      • notjohnsmosby

        109,000 is the live vote. The total you posted from 2013 was live and absentee.

        • sonofkenny

          Even better then…I thought they were pooled separately…like the handle btw 🙂

          • notjohnsmosby

            Live and absentee are always combined for district numbers. Effectively, the absentees are just another precinct.

  • PW County precincts:

    Yorkshire precinct at 1 pm: 714 votes (in 2013, there were 1,218 total)
    Manassas Park precincts at 1 pm: 1,600 votes (in 2013, there were 2,126 total)
    Beville precinct at 12:15 pm: 735 votes (in 2013, there were 1,218 total)
    Signal Hill precinct at 12:30: 522 votes (in 2013, there were 835 total)

    I’m told it’s possible PW County will reach 47%-48% turnout, compared to 41% in 2013.

    • Anthony Shifflett

      Very possible. We just crossed 33% here.

  • Chris

    Is there an active conservative / Republican open thread that anyone knows about? I’m curious what people are saying, I wouldn’t be planning to comment.

  • Charlottesville as of 1 pm. In 2013, there was 12,494 turnout (total) in Cville

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/cville1pm.jpg

  • Arlington at 39% turnout as of noon, according to https://twitter.com/ArlingtonVotes

    • sonofkenny

      39% of 2013? Or 39% of registered voters?

      • Chris

        Should be of registered voters.

      • Of registered voters.

        • sonofkenny

          Any idea how that compares with 2013?

          • I believe Arlington had 49% turnout in 2013. So…with 39% at noon, Arlington is on course to surpass that, hopefully by a lot.

          • Taelon

            my guess is not by -a lot- due to inflated absentee votes reducing potential election day turnout. Over 5% higher would be surprising imo

          • https://www.arlnow.com/2017/11/07/heavy-turnout-short-lines-reported-at-arlington-polling-stations/

            Despite a slowdown in the pace of voting with the arrival of steady rain in the area, Arlington County Registrar Linda Lindberg expects turnout will easily exceed that of 2013 today.
            “We certainly expect that to be quite a bit higher, probably well over 50 percent,” she told ARLnow.com, crediting “increased interest in this year’s race and a boost in get-out-the-vote efforts among parties.”

  • https://twitter.com/AlexandriaVAGov “At noon, 32,539 active voters (36%) had voted in today’s election. Was 28% at noon in 2013. Polls open until 7pm”

    • LibertarianDemocrat

      Good sign. Let’s hope this keeps up!

      Weather looks a lot better in Norfolk and Richmond, so that should help.

  • Wow, the Bull Elephant Teapublican folks are NOT happy right now

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/tbe1pm.jpg

    • ameri…canwork

      I am really upset with you guys not bringing McAuliffes Executive Order 24 to the publics attention.
      This was a good EO and then to follow up with the VOSHA/DOLI NOTIFICATION policy to DPOR Implemented on July1st 2015.
      But it was a good day too see 2 of Raymond Woods killers charged with Capital Murder.
      Both sides have made political paws out of immigrants and contributed to legal Virginia job loss.
      You should be ashamed.
      In the words of our Governor;
      ” shame on you”

  • From Alexandria Vice Mayor Justin Wilson: “The top 5 precincts for turnout in Alexandria as of noon were Maury (42%), G. Mason (40%), Blessed Sac. (38%), GW (37%), Mt Vernon (37%)”

    Note that Maury went 73% for TMac in 2013; G. Mason 63% for TMac; Blessed Sacrament 67% for TMac; Mt. Vernon 77% for TMac.

  • Del. Marcus Simon:

    Keep it up y’all. Turnout is really high. As of 10:30 a.m. super Dem precinct Marshall was over 50% of 2013 TOTAL votes. Not including absentees at 10:30 a.m. Same at Timber Lane, Graham-Greenway, and Falls Church Community Center. If we get a strong afternoon push turnout could be historic for an odd year election. Steady flow continued through mid morning- which is usually a slower time. Can’t let the rain and cold and early darkness slow us down tho- we still have a long way to go. If you already voted- bug your neighbor and make sure they have too. Call someone. Text someone. Give someone who needs it a ride to the polls. Let’s finish this strong and celebrate all night long!

  • Sen. Scott Surovell a few minutes ago (1:40 pm or so): “Lynn Precinct in Woodbridge is 306 + 60 absentees out of 1991 #goodturnout” (Note: in 2013, total turnout at this precinct was 696; went 75% for TMac)

  • mario

    Credit will need to go to the PWC House of Delegate candidates for working some of the strongest campaigns out there.

  • DouginMetroDC

    Enjoying watching the show from over here in Maryland, today…..good luck to all my old Democratic friends back in Northern VA! I am super excited to see turnout in Loudoun and my old Mt Vernon precinct Woodlawn, and of course, Bob Marshall’s sweet sweet retirement, hopefully not to be out done by Dick Black’s second sweet sweet retirement in 2019!

    • Anthony Shifflett

      Bathroom Bob is my delegate. Let’s hope he goes down…

      • Yeah, let’s hope Bathroom Bob is flushed.

      • LibertarianDemocrat

        It would be sweet, sweet justice to have him beat by a member of the LGBTQ+ community.

  • C L

    Fairfax at 31% turnout (not including absentees) as of 2pm.

  • From Kai Degner: “Huge turnout in Harrisonburg. Already exceeds 80% of the 2013 Gov race total votes cast.” (note: Harrisonburg went 52%-40% for TMac in 2013)

  • Alec

    I’m off to vote at Lake Braddock….will have total soon.

  • sonofkenny

    Jerry Foltz reports 1,081 at Deer Park Elementary in Centreville (921) as of 2 pm. 2013 total (with absentee) 1,470

  • Brutus

    Heavily Democratic Willston Prectinct in Mason District was 493 at 2 pm, which is about a 25% turnout. The rain is not helping turnout in Northern Virginia. What’s the weather downstate?

    • JWS

      610 total votes in 2013.

  • C L
    • A total of 35,088 voted in Albemarle in 2013. So…looking good.

    • Attapork

      Does this include absentee?

  • Another Scott

    Looks like the worst rain will be fully out of the state in the next hour or so.

    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

    The weather is no excuse for not voting today!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  • AG

    I’m in Carson (precinct 913) in Fairfax county. 2013 turnout was 779 by my count and McAuliffe won here with 58 percent. (Hillary with 62%) we have officially reached the 2013 turnout count as of 2:30pm, before the evening rush. However, a word of caution: precinct may have more residents than 2013 due to new development.

    • AG

      Update: we are about to hit 1,000 votes cast at Carson (#913) in Fairfax County. Population has increased here since ’13 but these #s are very comparable to the presidential, where Hillary won with 62%. Very encouraging.

  • @VotingGuy Noon update: Henrico County (suburb of City of Richmond) had turnout of 30%. Next update is 4pm

  • As of 1 pm: @VotingGuy Loudoun County, Virginia Update: 56,766 voted, turnout 23.43%, a few precincts did not report, doesn’t include absentees

    (note: in 2013, Loudoun saw turnout of 89,539)

    • sonofkenny

      Any idea how many absentee ballots in Loudoun?

  • 757Dem

    For what its worth…one of the most R Districts downstate (Poquoson- Western) had 924 at 1pm. 2,098 voters in 2016, swinging for Trump with 1,485. Definitely not getting there; 1,523 votes total in 2013. Don’t see this sleep precinct even getting there this year.

  • Alec

    I need clarification on something…If my polling has two counting machines. They both read the same #, do I add both machines, or do both represent total voters????

  • OrangeDem

    Voted at Prospect Heights Middle School in Town of Orange around 2. 738 people had voted before me, which is a 20 percent turnout. Seems pretty typical for the region. Impressed to see the Democrats with the only physical presence outside the polling place. They thankfully had a tent on a rainy, miserable day, and I got to meet the House candidate, Ben HIxon. He’s run an active campaign, against a Repub who is a bit of a ghost, Nick Freitas.

  • @davebjerke 1h1 hour ago #FallsChurch 2pm turnout of active voters with absentee: 46.5%

  • hugoestr

    I voted in Dranesville district at 7:30 AM, about 230 people at my precinct.

  • SFH435

    Which Delegate Incumbent do you guys think will most likely lose tonight just based on the turnout we’ve seen in NoVa so far?

    • notjohnsmosby

      LeMunyon.

  • Elizabeth Oakley

    Any totals from Richmond City?

  • Charles Bright

    Arlington Votes on Twitter says their estimate as of 3:00 PM is that 40% have turned out. By my calculations, turnout in Arlington in 2013 was around 42%. Further evidence that it looks like Arlington voters will outperform their turnout from four years ago.

  • Alec

    At 2:45…Lake Braddock, 1218 voters. In 2013 there were 1,592 votes for Gov.

  • Ben Kyber

    Report from Precinct 515 in Chesterfield County. HEAVY D precinct in 2016 and 2013 (1,416-360 Clinton, 851-195 McAuliffe). Appx. 750 voters as of about 3 p.m. 1,134 total in 2013.

    • Does that 750 # include absentees?

      • Ben Kyber

        I don’t think so (unless the ballot machine counter includes absentees, which I doubt). In any event, wouldn’t absentees be counted in one of the CAPs vs. in a specific precinct?

  • Carter Turner

    Turnout seems pretty flat here in SW Virginia. Roughly 36% at several rural precincts. Weather getting bad. Could be a (relative) rout for the Dem top ticket. Hurst may blow Yost out of the water.

    • Alec

      Do you have any vote totals for Mont. Co. precincts?

    • Rich Johnson

      Wow – man, this would be an awesome bellweather if Hurst wins big.

    • Brendan

      going to be very disappointed if Hurst doesn’t win. great candidate and campaign.

    • lindab

      Isn’t 35% high?

  • Brandon

    I live in Colonial Heights (a heavy GOP area) and have barely seen any Ed signs. Like less than 10 in people’s yards. I have seen plenty of Sheriff, AG, etc… signs but not Ed ones. I hope this is a good sign. No pun intended.

  • A_Siegel

    NextGen America is tracking student specific voting: https://nextgenamerica.org/turnout/ As of 4 pm, across all the areas, as of 4 pm, roughly 250 more votes in 2017 than the 2013 total across these 10 districts.

  • Alec

    In 2013, Fairfax Co. turnout was 46.8%, 306K….

  • Rees Shearer

    First time in 35 years of voting in Meadowview precinct in Washington Co. there were four Democrats handing out lit outside the polls and no Republicans. Usually it’s the other way around or one lone Democrat.

  • 757Dem

    Machen in Hampton at 1,400 at 3pm; Important Hampton precinct in a red District. 1,236 total for McAuliffe with 365 for Cooch in 2013. Should surpass that easily, hopefully getting to HRCs total around 2,000.

  • Joshua Norris

    High numbers everywhere in our precincts HOD 58. GOP Precinct are about 20% lower.

  • aznew

    At Alumni Hall in charlottesville, around 4:30 I was #1,082. According to the clerk I asked, that represented a heavy turnout for the location.

    Heavy Democratic area, which includes the area surrounding UVA.

    • Alec

      What’s the name of that precinct?

      • nc1515
        • aznew

          Nice. Trump got 15% in this district last year.

      • aznew

        It’s the Alumni Hall precinct, I believe.

        • notjohnsmosby

          Who’s buried in Grant’s Tomb?

          • aznew

            Heh. But to be fair, Alumni Hall is also the name of the building in which the voting occurs.

  • Some precincts with large millennial populations have already exceeded 2013 totals, according to NextGenAmerica’s turnout reports for a handful of VA precincts with large millennial populations.

    • Be careful there, the Richmond one is a redrawn precinct since 2013, so it’s naturally a bit larger than it was. Still those results look good.

  • JoshS

    I’m seeing all the good news here and that’s great… but what is the bad news? what is the other side saying that is encouraging to their voters, anything?

    • notjohnsmosby

      They’re counting on rain and Jesus at this point.

      • JoshS

        One is way more certain than the other….

        • veerkg_23

          What goes up, must come down.

      • LibertarianDemocrat

        Hard to ask Jesus for support when you have spent that much time trying to kick his fellow brown people out of the country.

    • They’re saying African-American turnout is down (I was just told that supposedly turnout in Petersburg is down, but that turnout in Richmond is up). Also focusing on the rain and how that might hold down turnout in places like Fairfax.

      • JoshS

        thanks

      • LibertarianDemocrat

        Got a sister in RIchmond, told me it is picking up post-5:00.

    • Heatherfeather

      Minority turnout is def. down in Alexandria. I always see at least a few AA women voting with me. I saw zero today. Shame as the Dems had a diverse group running. Notlarrysobato is sounding a big pessimistic now. Fearing a 2016 let down again.

      • AG

        This is quite anecdotal/speculative, don’t you think?

      • It’s “Not Larry Sabato,” and two of his latest tweets are:

        “If I was going to guess, looks like we are on track for a Northam win bigger than TMAC but smaller than Kaine 05.”

        “As people get off work inner NOVA is picking up again, Fairfax is going to outvote 2013 for sure now, Northam is up around 55k right now”

  • 757Dem

    Booker Precinct in Hampton at 3pm was at 1160. Split for TMac in 2013, 702 to 686. Our boy Sarvis pulled a solid 100 votes from Cooch though. Looks like it’ll exceed that total of 1,495 this year *hopefully* in the Dems direction, though Trump won in 16 (1065 to 924).

  • Charlottesville has exceeded 2013 total turnout, per Michael McDonald https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/928015451589836800

  • Anthony Shifflett

    Voting has picked up here after a several hours of a lull.

    • Alec

      Where?

  • Norman

    I hope that this is good news

    “4:43 pm – (Steve Albertson): Honestly, the more I look at the numbers I’m seeing, and what I’m hearing from people at the polls and on the campaigns, the more concerned I’m getting (elevated turnout where we don’t like it, and relatively lower where we do, with a few random exceptions). I’m definitely less optimistic now than when I went to bed last night. Is there some reason I shouldn’t be?”

    From Bull Elephant

    • veerkg_23

      Who is Steve Albertson?

      • Norman

        I have never heard of The Bull Elephant or Albertson. However, lowkell who runs this site referenced it above so I am watching it.

        • Bull Elephant tends to be worth reading, if you like to see what some of the Republicans outside Bearing Drift have to say.

  • Charlottesville #s (note: Cville final turnout in 2013 was 12,494 and 38.7% )

    http://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/cville4pm.jpg

    • Attapork

      Do the 2013 numbers include absentee? By the way, thanks for your great work!

      • Yes, 2013 #s include absentees. Thanks.

        • A_Siegel

          as per below, 1302 absentee in Charlottesville …. thus about 900 more votes in 2017 by 4 pm than 2013’s total …

    • SocioSam

      Not from Virginia. Can someone ID which are D & R areas?

  • Alec

    Mount Eagle precinct in Fairfax Co. already passed 2013 numbers

  • 757Dem

    Super RED City of Poquoson showing low turnout (swung about 3:1 for Trump)– about 3,564 at 4pm, compared to 6,303 in 2016 and 4,225 in 2013. Apparently all Vols are gone too.

    • veerkg_23

      Wouldn’t call that super low. With 3 hrs to go they will likely surpass 2013 numbers. We have to continue to get the vote out to counter.

      • 757Dem

        Touche, though in that area of Virginia, the after work rush isn’t significant like in NoVA- I don’t see them exceeding the 2013 by much. I still want us to continue to run up margins everywhere else possible in the state though!

  • Charles Bright

    Just voted at Marshall precinct (708) in Fairfax County. Combining the two ballot scanners I was voter #1,885. 2013 total for this precinct was 1,760. Already surpassed 2013 level and there was still a steady amount of people coming into vote after work.

    • Alec

      Awesome

  • SFH435

    https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/statewide/

    vpap has updated their website so that we can see other things besides the result itself. I think it will be very interesting once the polls close at 7 how this will work

  • C L

    Fairfax exceeded its 2013 numbers as 5pm. I think this comes out to ~320K votes of 5pm.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cea19fc5c714f7bb1e6a114d1ae42233dd6942779247dc7556e5cf9447a6fbf.png .

  • Heatherfeather

    Thanks for doing this thread. One cool thing was that out Virginia Rep. Mark Levine visited all the polling places in his constituency today. He was at my polling place at 6am. Very good of him considering he ran unopposed.

  • C L

    I’m guessing Albemarle surpassed its 2013 numbers already too. This is as of 4pm and I’m not sure if it includes absentee. Charlottesville City (solidly Dem) hitting its 2013 numbers before Albermare (very Dem but as much so), which also hit its 2013 numbers, is consistent with an excited Dem base. Note that Charlottesville is 20% black (Tonsler and Carver are minority heavy).

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b84eb3bf79e0c841637d2a7856666c9f0092ee7ca2d99bcef300984444e7b488.png

  • Michael Beer

    just got back from canvassing in manassas. afternoon door knocking was crippled. Bad for us. I have never in 35 years had to canvas in such difficult conditions…rain and 6 degrees celsius. It turned paper on clipboards into mush. I worry that turnout will slow down with few door knockers and bad conditions in N. Virginia.

    • notjohnsmosby

      Afternoon flushing/canvassing is a waste of time, so don’t feel too bad about it.

      • JWS

        Depends on where you’re flushing.

      • Michael Beer

        Please don’t disparage the thousands of volunteers who are flushing voters. What did you do this afternoon that was better use of time?

        • notjohnsmosby

          I didn’t disparage the volunteers. I criticized the field directors who sent them out.

          • Herring’s margin last time could easily have been a result of picking up the stragglers with the afternoon flush.

    • A_Siegel

      Thank you for being out in this miserable weather …

  • LibertarianDemocrat

    I like the “college graduate” numbers on that exit poll, Chuck.

  • Alec

    Thanks for the refresher on why exit polls suck….Chuck

  • Arthur Bagnall

    Voted about 5:30pm at Van Pelt Elementary in Bristol. It was a madhouse in the parking lot but quieter inside. Traffic heavy in neighborhood.

  • WaPo preliminary exits for what they’re worth…

    “PRELIM VA EXITS: Just over 4 in 10 approve of Trump, a majority disapprove.”
    “Roughly half of VA voters say Trump is not a factor in their vote; among the rest, abt 2x as many say vote is to oppose Trump as to support”
    “PRELIM VA EXITS: Dems appear to have an edge over Reps in party ID among voters, just under 4 in 10 ID as Dems, just over 3 in 10 ID as Reps”
    “PRELIM VA exit poll data: The top issue to VA voters is healthcare, with just under 4 in 10 naming it as the most important issue in deciding their vote. About 1 in 7 apiece name gun policy, immigration and taxes as most important. About 1 in 10 say abortion.”
    “PRELIM VA EXIT POLL RESULTS: liberal identification is on par with 2016 high, w/over a quarter identifying as liberal. (Was lower in gov elections in 2009 and 2013.) About a third of voters ID as conservative, on par with 2016, but down slightly from previous years”

    • StoptheChop

      The Bull Elephant folks are all over the place- from despondent to elated. Thoughts?

      • notjohnsmosby

        Sounds like some are more delusional than usual.

      • Heatherfeather

        Sound about like us Democrats. 🙂

    • Mountsthelens

      Very similar to MSNBC Meet The Press exit results. Are the exits from one consortium like Edison, or are they conducted independenly by each media outlet? Thanks…

      • Great question, I don’t know the answer but it seems like a reasonable assumption.

        • notjohnsmosby

          Back in the day, it was usually AP or UPI that sent trackers around to all of the precincts. I don’t know if they still do it and everyone reports off of their info or not.

    • Charles Bright

      Surprised top issue is healthcare and not jobs/economy. Hopefully this is a good sign for Ralph.

      • Yeah, it’s almost always jobs/economy. Weird.

  • elrod

    Any news on very red counties, like Campbell (heavy Kook vote from the Liberty U crowd)?

  • lardrew

    Heavy African-American voting area picking up late in the day .. only about 600 votes short of 2013 totals ..

    https://twitter.com/VotingGuy/status/928039580082884609

    • Taelon

      wow. for some reason I was thinking they were much farther from 2013. If Petersburg is anything like the heavily weighted African American areas in North Carolina, there could be lines when poll closes and a decent chunk of last hour votes!

  • C L

    TMac seems confident on Twitter. We shall know soon enough. Go Virginia Dems!

    VA will reject racist campaign of @EdWGillespie, reject the rhetoric of @realDonaldTrump and we're gonna sweep tonight! @AriMelber @MSNBC pic.twitter.com/jApw39MpLn— Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) November 7, 2017

    • Taelon

      Northam went on MSNBC almost at 5pm sharp when exits were released. Pretty sure that + internal data + record turnout in NovA = strong confidence!

  • Heatherfeather

    Well think I will sign off until tomorrow GOP pollsters say big upset win for Gillespie & Dem pollster says opposite. Thanks for the updates. Until next year with Sen. Kaine & Crazy Corey.

  • lardrew

    https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/928058110035578882

    Must not get excited. Must not get excited.

    • Anthony Shifflett

      Yep. Let’s hope downticket does well.

  • Jan Maxwell

    NBC just called it for Ralph!