Home 2018 Elections New Monmouth VA-07 Poll: Abigail Spanberger 47%-Dave Brat 42%

New Monmouth VA-07 Poll: Abigail Spanberger 47%-Dave Brat 42%

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A brand-new poll of VA-07, by the highly respected Monmouth University polling outfit (A+ rating from 538.com), should have far-right extremist Rep. Dave Brat sweating and the rest of us eager to help push Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger past the finish line in five weeks! Here are highlights from the poll:

  • Monmouth uses different likely voter models: “full voter sample,” “standard midterm,” “Democratic ‘surge’.” In all three models, Spanberger’s doing well (47%-42% in the “full voter sample,” 47%-47% in “standard midterm” and 48%-45% in “Democratic ‘surge'”). I’d note that the chances of a “standard midterm” are minimal, given Democratic anger and enthusiasm at this point.
  • Monmouth’s Patrick Murray says, “This is a tale of two districts. The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support Spanberger while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind Brat. The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas.
  • VA-07 voters have a MUCH more favorable view of Abigail Spanberger (43%-19%) compared to Dave Brat (35%-27%). That is really, really bad news for the incumbent.
  • Also bad news for Brat is the fact that 40% of VA-07 voters STRONGLY disapprove of Trump, while just 33% strongly approve of the orange d’bag. Overall, VA-07 voters are about evenly split on Trump, but again, the intense dislike outweighs the intense like for the “president.”
  • “Brat holds a very large lead over Spanberger among white voters without a college degree (61% to 31%). This is offset by Spanberger’s advantage among college educated white voters (52% to 42%) and non-white voters regardless of education (68% to 9%).
  • “83% of self-identified Republicans support Brat, but 13% say they will cross party lines to vote for Spanberger. The Democratic candidate, on the other hand, holds onto 91% of her fellow partisans while losing none to Brat. Independent voters are divided at 45% for Spanberger and 36% for Brat.”
  • There’s a HUGE gender gap here,  with women supporting Spanberger by 15 points (51%-36%) and men supporting Brat by 6 points (48%-42%). Cmon, men, women are right about this one! 🙂
  • Spanberger is kicking butt in Henrico County (58%-30%) and in Chesterfield County (50%-35%), while trailing elsewhere (57%-35%).
  • 50% of Dems says it’s “very important” to “personally…get involved in politics,” compared to just 35% of Republicans.
  • An amazing 78% of voters say that it’s either “very” (61%) of “somewhat” important to cast their vote in opposition or support of Trump. In other words, this election is heavily about the incumbent in the White House, as midterms normally are. That’s not great news for Republicans, given Trump’s abysmal approval ratings.
  • The issues that matter most to VA-07 voters are health care policy (30%), immigration policy (17%), gun control policy (13%), tax policy (13%), job creation policy (12%), and abortion policy (7%). It’s hard to tell which side these responses favor, although it seems to me that if you’re concerned about health care policy, you’d probably tend to be more Dem-leaning at this point. Also note that voters narrowly trust Spanberger (37%) more than Brat (32%) regarding keeping health care affordable.