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The Polls Agree: VA Politics May be Entering New Era

by: Goldmanusa

Fri Aug 30, 2013 at 12:31:46 PM EDT

by Paul Goldman

Is Ken Cuccinelli really that weak politically, is Terry McAuliffe really that strong, or is Virginia politics entering a new era in terms of statewide elections?

My sweep thesis is premised in some measure on the new era analysis, but resting even more on the relative strengths of the campaigns for Governor. If I sound like a broken record, then that's because the song I have been singing over the summer is more popular with Virginians than Robert Thicke's Blurred Lines. However, I will concede his video is better than mine.

Back to the politics: The polls right now are indicating either: 1) Democrats are a lot more juiced up to vote or; 2) Republicans are down in the political dumps for various reasons, too numerous to name really (which explains the GOP grassroots sour mood).

At this point, it really is pointless to point fingers at the campaign or the candidate or the strategy guy or the policy person. Whatever the reason: Cuccinelli is facing the "Perfect Storm," but at least George Clooney was in a movie, not on the actual ship in an actual storm, just a Hollywood set. Cuccinelli is registering an all-time low (or nearly so) in the polls for a GOP candidate going into Labor Day. This is the reality. Governor McDonnell's numbers are actually way better than Cuccinelli's.

So, Cuccinelli's campaign strategy guys may soon realize: if Bob McDonnell doesn't get indicted, they will not be able to blame the Governor if the GOP loses in the biggest such defeat since 1985! My sweep thesis doesn't predict the margin; indeed once you are inaugurated, the margin is irrelevant for policy purposes, and usually the politics for the first year or so. Nor is the thesis based on a sea change in the turnout model.      

Goldmanusa :: The Polls Agree: VA Politics May be Entering New Era
BUT:  If the turnout model in a Virginia GUV election is now what the polls are predicting - a substantial statistical advantage for Democrats - then of course we are talking about 2013 marking a watershed moment in the Old, now New, Dominion.

So you ask: "Well, Paul, is 2013 such a marker?" The answer: As you know, I don't believe Governor McDonnell should get indicted based on my understanding of the law and the evidence. I don't buy the rat theory of criminal law. Assuming, therefore, that this is the case, then it is very possible for the Governor to NOT be a drag on the Cuccinelli campaign in the final analysis, as amazing as this might have seemed only a week ago.

By election day, McDonnell could very well have a very good image with almost all Republicans and a decent one with independents IF HE CALLS A SPECIAL SESSION and continues getting high marks for his performance in the job, as opposed to personal failings. Virginians are forgiving; we all need to be in that regard when possible. Assuming, therefore, that this is the situation, then a big relative jump in Democratic vs. Republican turnout statistics suggests something bubbling up in the Virginia electorate.

A sweep would also leave Republicans at an historic 50-year low in folks elected statewide (they would have NO ONE!).  That strikes me as more than just a bad 2013 ticket or bad 2013 strategy.  However, it would take a confirming election in 2017 to prove it.

Bottom line: If the polls keep showing the same relative projected electorate, and there is nothing to make the election year unusual in any basic DEM v GOP way, then the odds will grow that the 2013, in retrospect, will have been a marker for a new era. It is still the lesser of the likely cases at this point, but the polls continue to suggest the 2009 electorate, so fairly to McDonnell, is not likely to repeat. As I have written, that alone could be enough to defeat the GOP ticket this year without anything more.      

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A Possible Result (4.00 / 1)
If the premise is correct that a sweep is in the making (a good bet right now), I would expect to see some gains in the House of Delegates, even with the horrendous gerrymandering that was done in 2011.

Another factor affecting Cuccinelli's vote total statewide may well be his office taking the side of big coal and gas companies in the dispute over gas royalties in SW Virginia. That area should be going 65-70% GOP, but right now McAuliffe's ads featuring local people lambasting Cuccinlli are producing bad internal polls for the Republican ticket. Lots of traditional GOP voters just may stay home or vote for the libertarian. There' no way Cuccinelli et al can make up for lost votes in SW VA in NoVA or Hampton Roads.

Elaine, are you referring to actual internal polls? (0.00 / 0)
I've only seen the report about the Cathcart vs Head race... Are you reading about other internal polls?

In a Democratic sweep, I think the Dems would be likely to make inroads in NOVA (Ramadan, Ligamfelter, Rust are among the most likely to flip), Hampton Roads (the Williamsburg seat, and either Newport News or 1 Virginia Beach seat), and the Blacksburg seat, held by Yost.) Miller, running against Marshall, and McGrady running for an open seat in Southwest also have a shot. However, particularly since we are guaranteed to lose Joe Johnson's seat, it is difficult to envision a net gain of larger than 7 seats in the House of Delegates.

OK (0.00 / 0)
I never said that there would be larger shift in the H of D. After all, the gerrymandering was meant to guarantee GOP domination of the legislature for the foreseeable future. However, the internal polls I refer to are about the gubernatorial race. Cuccinelli should be running away with the SW VA vote for governor. He's not. The so-called "coal fields advantage" is not there.

I don't see how the Democrats could sweep to a majority in the House of Delegates, barring a miracle from God. I agree with you that the inroads in delegates will likely happen in NoVA and Hampton Roads. However, I was referring to the fact that Couccinelli will not get the vote totals that other Republicans have traditionally gotten in SW VA. He has no way to make up the loss of those votes elsewhere. He's in a bind (and I love it).

[ Parent ]
Gerrymandering (0.00 / 0)
The GOP gerrymandering was meant to guarantee GOP domination of the legislature provided that Democrats continued to underperform in off-year elections, something that was a rather safe bet given the failures in leadership we've seen from the House Caucus and the State Party. Who knew that the Republicans would end up being their own worst enemy this year?

With this meltdown, a competent assault on the GOP in the House of Delegates should flip around 15 seats.  

[ Parent ]
Agree (Sort Of) (0.00 / 0)
If disgusted Republicans of the moderate persuasion stay home in droves and Independents decide to give the Democrats a try, I agree. Whatever the outcome of the election, I hope some Republicans who have been pandering to the Tea Party types in their districts get a scare by the vote against them. Perhaps they will moderate a bit, but that probably is wishful thinking on my part.

[ Parent ]
Sabato now calls VA-Gov "leans Democratic" (0.00 / 0)
His analysis here

But I think it's fairly simple -- the Cuccinelli campaign's biggest problem is...Cuccinelli.  Imagine if you were hired to market a spam popsicle -- you could come up with the best marketing campaign in the world, but you still couldn't make it tasty and appealing.  

All you could do is attack the other companies' popsicles.  Does that sound familiar?

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