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Exclusive BV Poll of the 8th CD Democratic Primary. Part 4: Patrick Hope's HoD District

by: lowkell

Fri May 02, 2014 at 15:11:59 PM EDT


I posted the first installment of our exclusive 8th CD Democratic primary poll a bit earlier today. See here for more details on the poll in general (e.g., it was telephone/automated, with calls conducted by Voice Broadcasting), as well as on results for Charniele Herring's House of Delegates district specifically. Also see here for details on Alexandria, and here for details on Adam Ebbin's State Senate district.

Now, we turn to Patrick Hope's House of Delegates District (the 47th), which covers mostly North Arlington and perhaps will constitute around 20% of the Democratic primary electorate on June 10th. Hope has represented this district since 2010. See the graph and comments for my thoughts. Also note that there were 218 respondents specifically in the 47th House of Delegates District (out of 1,152 total responses). The margin of sampling error on this section of the poll is +/- 6.1 percentage points.

*It's basically a two-way race in this district, with Hope (43.6%) and Beyer (20.6%) combining with "undecided" for over 90% of the vote here, and with Hope leading Beyer by a whopping 23 points! Everyone else combined add up to under 10% of the vote in this district.

*This is exactly what Patrick Hope needs to be doing in his own House of Delegates district (and what Bill Euille, Charniele Herring and Adam Ebbin aren't doing on their home turfs) -- racking up a big margin, over 40% of the vote in a 10-candidate field, 23 points ahead of Don Beyer and 40 points ahead of Adam Ebbin. That's without having done any serious paid communications yet, to my knowledge, while we've been inundated with mailers from several other candidates.

*Something very interesting jumps out at me from all of this. You'd think that where voters know their Delegate, Senator, Mayor, whatever, you'd expect the voters to like and support that elected official. Yet in Ebbin's and Herring's districts, as well as in Mayor Euille's Alexandria, the elected officials trail badly to Don Beyer. In stark contrast, in Patrick Hope's district, Hope leads by a wide margin.

*Apparently, as Hope told me in 2009 (I didn't believe him at the time), when voters get to know him, they come to like him. The question for the next 40 days is whether voters outside Hope's district will get to know him, like him, and consider voting for him. Right now, most of them don't really know who Hope is. Of course, it's quite possible that most voters haven't focused on this race yet, but will do so in the next few weeks. Stay tuned!

*So, while this isn't a bad result for Don Beyer, but I'm thinking it increasingly is what they're most worried about over at Beyer HQ - the potential for Patrick Hope to win big in North Arlington, pick up support in Mt. Vernon and other parts of Fairfax County, and generally emerge as Beyer's most serious rival. That's pretty much what I talked about in my scenarios post.

lowkell :: Exclusive BV Poll of the 8th CD Democratic Primary. Part 4: Patrick Hope's HoD District
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Don Beyer Worried... (0.00 / 0)
about Patrick Hope in North Arlington?  LOL!

Look at the YOUR TOTAL numbers in all four polls and you tell me who should be worried:

Charniele Herring's District:
Beyer - 33.3%
Hope -   1.9%

City of Alexandria:
Beyer - 36.6%
Hope -   1.9%

Adam Ebbins District:
Beyer -  37.7%
Hope -    1.9%

Patrick Hope's District:
Hope -  43.6%
Beyer - 20.6%

Beyer is crushing Hope across the entire 8th CD, save North Arlington.  

Hope's biggest problem is the inability of Herring, Ebbin, and Euille to perform better in their district/city, and keep Beyer's vote totals in those areas down.  Without Herring, Ebbin and Euille performing better in their respective areas, Hope's big lead in his district is all for naught.  And his inability to score more than two per cent of the vote outside his district is simply an epic fail.  Hope's district is contained entirely in Arlington so he simply is not known outside his district  - and your poll proves that point.  

Of the four areas you polled, Hope's district has the highest number of undecideds - so he clearly has not consolidated his district to the point where he could pull off an upset.  

If anyone should be worried, its Ben Tribbett, not Don Beyer.  



Keep in mind that there's a lot of overlap (4.00 / 1)
Herring's district is all in Alexandria, and most of Ebbin's is in Alexandria (also there's some overlap between Herring's and Ebbin's districts). So...be careful about double counting here.

As for Beyer being "worried," I'm not saying he's at serious risk right now if losing this race, just that the one thing he might be worried about is if one of his main opponents (e.g., Hope) racks up a big victory on their home turf and manages to eat into Beyer's turf in Fairfax County...

I do agree strongly with your comment, "Hope's biggest problem is the inability of Herring, Ebbin, and Euille to perform better in their district/city, and keep Beyer's vote totals in those areas down."


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[ Parent ]
Hope campaign memo to media on BV poll of 8th CD Dems (0.00 / 0)
Late Friday Blue Virginia published the first public polling of the 2014 Democratic Primary for Congress. There has been much chatter about these polls, and I would like to provide you with some numbers and prospective from the Hope campaign.

This poll confirms what our internals have shown- that Patrick Hope is the only candidate to lead Don Beyer in any geographic region of the 8th district. I will note the obvious here- in order for a candidate to win this primary they need to win at least one major geographic area with margin over Beyer.  

No other candidate polls within 20 points of Don Beyer- even in areas where they have run before. Senator Ebbin trails by 24 points in his district, while Mayor Euille and Delegate Herring trail by 23 points each where they represent voters. That means Hope's 23 point lead in his district over Beyer represents a 46 point swing versus the performance of the other elected officials in the race from their areas.

Beyer is well known districtwide from his days as Lt. Governor, which means he does not have much room to grow in numbers even with voter communication. Voters that support Beyer have been strong from the start of the campaign, and his numbers have not moved much since he began blitzing mailboxes and airing television ads. Beyer has reached his ceiling of support.

Meanwhile the Hope campaign starts full districtwide paid voter communication this week with mailings beginning to hit. Hope remains mostly unknown outside of Arlington- giving him huge opportunities for gains once voters learn about him.

Most important from these polls is an implied question. Where the Alexandria candidates are well known they trail Beyer badly- meaning voters who know that candidate and Beyer are showing preference to Beyer.  Meanwhile in Arlington where Hope and Beyer are well known, voters who know both Beyer and Hope prefer Patrick Hope by massive margins. Should that pattern hold as Hope becomes more well known districtwide in the final month he stands an excellent chance of catching Beyer.

One other important note. Blue Virginia segmented their poll by area- which means that voters that overlap various districts are counted in each poll they vote in. There are some precincts where Ebbin, Euille and Herring all represent, meaning those voters were counted in all three polls and there are other large areas where Herring/Euille or Ebbin/Euille overlap where voters were counted twice. In fact, every voter in the 46th House seat (Herring) was double counted as her district is entirely within the City of Alexandria.  Meanwhile- Hope has no overlap with any of these elected officials- so none of his voters were double or triple counted. I note this so there is no confusion about the numbers from the Ebbin, Euille and Herring polls being from 3 different geographic areas- 100% of 46th voters are included in the Alexandria poll, and 100% of Alexandria voters are included in either the 46th or 30th district polls.

Patrick represents about 2/3 of North Arlington- with the remaining in Delegate Bob Brink's district. Since there was no candidate running from that area it was not included in this poll- but the results from the 47th district should strongly indicate that the race there is also between Beyer and Hope- and the gap between them and the rest of the field would widen with their inclusion.



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The purpose of Blue Virginia is to cover Virginia politics from a progressive and Democratic perspective. This is a group blog and a community blog. We invite everyone to comment here, but please be aware that profanity, personal attacks, bigotry, insults, rudeness, frequent unsupported or off-point statements, "trolling" (NOTE: that includes outright lies, whether about climate science, or what other people said, or whatever), and "troll ratings abuse" (e.g., "troll" rating someone simply because you disagree with their argument) are not permitted and, if continued, will lead to banning. For more on trolling, see the Daily Kos FAQs. Also note that diaries may be deleted if they do not contain at least 2 solid paragraphs of original text; if not, please use the comments section of a relevant diary. For more on writing diaries, click here. Thanks, and enjoy!

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