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We Need Democratic Recruits in Virginia. And We Need Them Now.

Author’s Note: This is a major revision of an earlier post about how Virginia Democrats are in desperate need of recruits to run for...

Why I Fight for Progress, Part 1: My Late Mother

by Ken Boddye At many junctures in my adult life, I had chosen the role of activist, volunteer and organizer, but never candidate or public...

Welcome to 2017, Virginia. It’s Time to Fight for Progress.

We all need to find the peace necessary to move past the 2016 General Election Cycle and its results. Now that we're in 2017,...

Should Virginia House of Delegates Dems Come Up With (And Run...

Promoted from the comments section of my analysis on Virginia Dems' path to winning back the House of Delegates. Thanks to "bobgoldstein" for this...

Can Dems Win Back the Virginia House of Delegates? Let’s Start...

This took a while, but courtesy of VPAP, we finally have full, official (as opposed to the early, unofficial numbers I procured a couple...

Virginia House Districts Won by Hillary Clinton Highlight Most Vulnerable GOP...

As you can see from the following graph, Virginia Republicans currently - in spite of their outrageous gerrymandering - hold 11 Virginia House of...

Ken Boddye: The Prince William Progress Coalition Grows!

by Ken A. Boddye, Democratic candidate for House of Delegates in the 51st district (eastern Prince William County) against right winger Rich Anderson. Go...

Following Up on Mark Warner’s 2014 Performance

Before the 2014 election I wrote about specific areas to watch for sorting out ongoing political trends in Virginia. After Mark Warner's nail-biting reelection night, I tore apart the Warner campaign's claim that they ran significantly ahead of other Democrats in Virginia's rural areas, with a follow-up diary comparing Mark Warner to Tom Perriello. Today, I want to take the time to follow up on some of the areas I picked as canaries in the coal mine of Virginia politics. While dissecting Election 2014 by House of Delegates and State Senate district is still being finalized by the good people at VPAP, here are some preliminary findings.

9th House of Delegates District (Franklin, Henry, Patrick Counties): The 9th had been at the center of Warner's crossover support in 2008, and featured a lively fight by Ward Armstrong after Republicans targeted him in their gerrymandering. The result in 2015? Mark Warner received 36% of the vote, just marginally above Obama's 34% in 2012.

12th House of Delegates District (Montgomery and Giles Counties, Radford City): Warner received 52% of the vote here, higher than Obama's 50% but behind Kaine's 54%. This is a unique district, the influence of Virginia Tech makes it very different than other Southwest districts. It also remained one of the best districts for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis.

6th House of Delegates District (Wythe, Carroll, Smyth Counties): Warner's 34% of the vote is behind Democrat McGrady's 37% from his 2013 delegates race, which somehow House Democrats convinced themselves was in the bag. About the same as Tim Kaine's 34% in 2012, but not an impressive showing based on prior Warner claims about Southwest popularity.

14th (Danville City; Pittsylvania and Henry Counties) & 16th (Pittsylvania and Henry Counties; Martinsville City) House of Delegates Districts: Warner received 48% of the vote in the Danville based 14th, marginally better than expected given his near defeat statewide. His 43% in the 16th was similar; better than normal Democrats, but only by a few points.  

It’s Never Over in Virginia

The dust has settled over the Commonwealth after election day 2014, and Mark Warner will survive to serve out another six years in the Senate ... assuming he stays that long. But there's no end to campaigns in Virginia, which because of our odd-year election cycle hosts heated elections every calendar year. For instance, with newly elected Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, there will soon be a special election for the 34th House of Delegates district. Other special elections will be held in the 4th district (Southwest Virginia, to replace newly elected State Senator Ben Chafin) and the 63rd district (Petersburg, to replace newly elected State Senator Rosalyn Dance) -- but don't expect any surprises there. Here's a preview of what to look forward to in Virginia politics.

34th House of Delegates Special Election
Let's give a brief history of the 34th in the last few election cycles. In 2007, Republican incumbent Vince Callahan retired and the open seat was won in a good Democratic year by Margi Vanderhye. Margi had defeated Rip Sullivan in the Democratic primary (Rip is finally making his way to Richmond from the 48th District). I wonder if Rip's pleased that he didn't end up in the 34th, as in 2009 a Republican tsunami swept out Vanderhye by 422 votes.

Financing Responsive Government In Virginia

Dominion's Beneficence photo 140917VPAPDominion_zpsd270d10a.jpgCurious about who's benefited from Dominion's concern for Virginia's political process, I thought I'd survey the contributions to candidates reported on The Virginia Public Access Project. Intending to provide a roster of recipients, it became clear that it is easier to list General Assembly members who have missed the beneficence.

    Members of the Virginia Senate who are not beholden to Dominion:
  • None

    Members of the Virginia House of Delegates who are not beholden to Dominion:
  • Sullivan, Richard C. (Rip), Jr. (D-48th)
  • Rasoul, Sam (D-11th)
  • Lindsey, Joseph C. (D-90th)
  • Farrell, Peter F. (R-56th)
  • Bloxom, Robert S., Jr. (R-100th)
  • Berg, Mark J. (R-29th)
  • Adams, Leslie R. (R-16th)

The range of contribution amounts ranges wildly from a quarter thousand to a quarter million dollars and seems directly proportionate to some combination of seniority and influence. The fact that the highest percentage of contributions (but not by far: 54 to 43) goes to Republicans follows that logic but I have not looked at trends over time. The "honor rolls" for both chambers will be presented separately.