Major Hurricane to Hit Virginia Later This Week?

From the National Hurricane Center.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES…THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/13.  EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST…ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND…AS EARL TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  GIVEN THE LARGE SHIFT IN THE MODELS…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT…OR WEST…BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT…IF ANY…PARTS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 18.3N  62.4W    90 KT

12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.1N  64.0W    95 KT

24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  66.0W   105 KT

36HR VT     31/1800Z 21.9N  67.8W   115 KT

48HR VT     01/0600Z 24.0N  69.6W   115 KT

72HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  73.0W   115 KT

96HR VT     03/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W   100 KT

120HR VT     04/0600Z 42.0N  65.5W    85 KT