New Q-Poll of Virginia: Obama 50%-Romney 46%; Kaine 51%-Allen 44%

(UPDATE: A new Washington Post poll has Kaine leading Allen by 8 points, 51%-43%, among likely voters. Great stuff! – promoted by lowkell)

Great news from a news Qunnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll (see press release on the "flip"):

*Barack Obama leads Willard "Mitt" Romney in Virginia by 4 points (50%-46%), compared to a 49%-45% Obama lead on August 8.

*Perhaps the best finding in the poll: Tim Kaine leads George Allen by 7 points, 51%-44%. That's the first time I can remember a significant Kaine lead in this race. It's also the first time I can remember Kaine outpacing Obama, even by a little bit. Wow. 

* By a 22% margin (59%-37%), Virginians say Obama cares about their needs and problems, compared to the 50%-44% majority who say that Romney does NOT care about their needs and problems.

*Obama leads among Virginia women, 54%-42%. Romney leads among Virginia men, 51%-45%.

*"71 percent of Obama voters say they 'strongly favor' their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters."

FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 19, 2012

OBAMA HITS 50% IN WISCONSIN, VIRGINIA; COLORADO IS CLOSE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/NEW YORK TIMES/CBS NEWS SWING STATE POLL FINDS

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COLORADO: Obama 48 – Romney 47, compared to Romney 50 – 45 August 8

VIRGINIA: Obama 50 – Romney 46, compared to Obama 49 – 45 percent August 8

WISCONSIN: Obama 51 – Romney 45, compared to Obama 49 – 47 percent August 23

President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters in Wisconsin and Virginia and catches Gov. Mitt Romney in a too-close-to call race in Colorado, according to a Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News Swing State poll released today.

Voters in these three critical states see the candidates as about even handling the economy, while President Obama is seen as better able to handle health care, Medicare and an international crisis.  Voters in each state say the president cares about their needs and problems while Romney doesn’t care.  The Obama-Romney matchup in each of these states shows:

• Colorado: Obama at 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, too close to call, but a

reverse of Romney’s 50 – 45 percent lead August 8;

• Virginia:   Obama at 50 percent to Romney’s 46 percent, compared to Obama’s

49 – 45 percent lead August 8

• Wisconsin: Obama edges Romney 51 – 45 percent, compared to Obama at 49 – 47

percent August 23 after Romney selected Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan

as his running mate.

Voters say Obama would do a better job handling an international crisis, 50 – 43 percent in Colorado, 53 – 42 percent in Virginia and 53 – 41 percent in Wisconsin.  

“All the bounces seem to be over as the candidates buckle down for a seven-week down-to-the-wire race to the finish.  The races are close, but Gov. Mitt Romney is losing ground to President Barack Obama in Colorado and Wisconsin and still trailing in Virginia,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

(For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy

discussing the survey, click on http://www.quinnipiac.edu/inst…

Voters say Obama cares about their needs and problems, while Romney does not:

• Colorado: Obama cares 55 – 41 percent while Romney doesn’t care 50 – 45 percent;

• Virginia: Obama cares 59 – 37 percent while Romney doesn’t care 50 – 44 percent;

• Wisconsin: Obama cares 60 – 37 percent while Romney doesn’t care 51 – 43 percent.

“Voters in all three key states, by roughly double digits, say that the country is worse off now than it was four years ago, reflecting a Romney campaign theme,” Brown added.  

“In Wisconsin and Colorado, voters by the same margin say they and their families are worse off, also.  But in Virginia, where the unemployment rate is under 6 percent and among the nation’s lowest, voters are split down the middle on whether they are better or worse off during the Obama presidency.

“President Obama has an edge over Gov. Romney on who can best handle a variety of issues – health care, Medicare, national security, and women’s reproductive rights.

“But on the number one issue to voters, the economy, the two are pretty much tied in the three states.  On the topical question, given events in the Middle East, of who can best handle an international crisis, the president enjoys double-digit leads.”

Colorado

Obama leads 52 – 43 percent among Colorado women likely voters, while men back Romney by the same 52 – 43 percent.  Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.

Six percent of voters for each candidate say they might change their mind in the next 48 days, but 73 percent of Obama voters say they “strongly favor” their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 42 percent of Colorado voters, while 22 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 6 percent list national security.  Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Obama.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 49 – 45 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 49 – 44 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Colorado voters say 47 – 36 percent and they personally are worse off, voters say 34 – 25 percent.

Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, rather than community and shared responsibility, voters say 49 – 43 percent.

Colorado voters approve 62 – 19 percent of the job Gov. John Hickenlooper is doing.

“Colorado is emblematic of Mitt Romney’s problems with Hispanic voters. George Bush got almost 40 percent of Hispanics in 2004 and won the election, while John McCain received little more than 30 percent in 2008 and lost,” Brown said.  “Colorado is typical of what is happening in states with large Hispanic populations: Romney is at 31 percent, about where McCain was, and that is an ominous sign for the GOP.”

Virginia

Virginia women likely voters back Obama 54 – 42 percent.  Romney wins among men   51 – 45 percent.  Independent voters go with Romney 53 – 42 percent.

Among Obama backers, 9 percent say they might change their mind, compared to 7 percent of Romney voters.  Again, 71 percent of Obama voters say they “strongly favor” their candidate, compared to 55 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 50 percent of Virginia voters, while 20 percent name health care; 8 percent cite the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security.  Obama would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 47 percent pick Romney.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 52 – 44 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 52 – 42 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Virginia voters say 45 – 35 percent.  They personally are worse off, 29 percent of voters say, as 27 percent say they are better off.

Government should encourage community and shared responsibility, 48 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility.

In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican George Allen 51 – 44 percent.  Independent voters split 46 – 46 percent.

Virginia voters approve 54 – 27 percent of the job Gov. Bob McDonnell is doing.

“Racial polarization in the presidential election nationally is on display in Virginia where blacks back the president 93 – 5 percent and whites go for Romney 57 – 39 percent,” Brown said.  “Looking at the subgroup of evangelical Christians who share similar religious beliefs, the president leads 93 – 6 percent among black evangelicals , while Romney leads among white evangelicals 78 – 17 percent.”

Wisconsin

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 55 – 42 percent.  Romney gets 49 percent of men to Obama’s 47 percent.  Independent voters back Romney 50 – 44 percent.

Only 7 percent of Obama voters and 6 percent of Romney voters say they might change their mind.  The president’s support seems stronger as 74 percent of his voters say they “strongly favor” him, compared to 56 percent of Romney voters.

The economy is the most important election issue for 45 percent of Wisconsin voters, while 23 percent name health care; 12 percent cite the budget deficit and 4 percent list national security.  The president would do a better job on the economy, 49 percent of voters say, while 46 percent pick Romney.

The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 51 – 45 percent, and do better on Medicare, voters say 50 – 43 percent.

The U.S. is worse off than it was four years ago, Wisconsin voters say 41 – 33 percent.  They personally are worse off, voters say 33 – 23 percent.

Government should encourage self-reliance and personal responsibility, 47 percent of voters say, while 44 percent want to encourage community and shared responsibility.

Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat as Democrat Tammy Baldwin is tied with Republican Tommy Thompson, 47 – 47 percent, compared to a 50 – 44 percent Thompson lead August 23.  Independent voters back Thompson 50 – 42 percent.

Wisconsin voters approve 52 – 44 percent of the job Gov. Scott Walker is doing.

“Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race appears to be a dead heat, with Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who would be the nation’s first openly gay senator, pulling into a deadlock with former Gov. Tommy Thompson,” said Brown. “And Gov. Scott Walker remains in solid shape with Badger state voters, holding a 52-44 percent job approval, not bad for a guy who faced the prospect of being thrown out of office earlier this year.”

From September 11 – 17, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with The New York Times and CBS News, surveyed:

• 1,497 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent;

• 1,474 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;

• 1,485 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.