Interesting analysis from the DCCC:
Last week’s Virginia gubernatorial primary results mean we can now measure the enthusiasm gap between Virginia Democrats and Republicans in real numbers. Analysis of this from multiple outlets on a statewide level drew the same conclusion: “Democrats have enthusiasm on their side.”
These new data points add to the mountain of anecdotal evidence provided by invigorated grassroots organizing, packed town halls, and a flood of letters and editorials that show just how vulnerable Virginia Republicans are in the 2018 midterms.
In an effort to measure how this newly quantifiable enthusiasm translates from a statewide trend to down ballot Congressional races, we compared Presidential and Congressional vote-yield in the 2016 general election to ballots cast in each party’s 2017 gubernatorial primary. Of course, this is not apples to apples, but it is instructive.
In key counties and municipalities across the Commonwealth, Democratic voters comprised a higher percentage of Virginians casting ballots in Tuesday’s primary election than they did in 2016’s general election for President and Congress.
Bottom line: Democrats are fired up and Republicans have problems across the board.
| House Percentage by CD | 2016 General Dem House Vote | 2016 General Rep House Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia 2nd | 106,979 38% | 172,586 62% | 42,051 53% | 37,641 47% |
| Virginia 5th | 147,656 42% | 206,577 58% | 51,037 59% | 35,015 41% |
| Virginia 7th | 158,692 42% | 217,968 58% | 48,692 49% | 50,212 51% |
| Virginia 10th | 181,977 47% | 204,019 53% | 47,649 56% | 34,872 44% |
[Decision Desk, 6/13/17; Politico, 11/8/16]
| Presidential Percentage By CD | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout | ||
| VA-02 | 45.4% | 48.8% | 53% | 47% | ||
| VA-05 | 42.3% | 53.4% | 59% | 41% | ||
| VA-07 | 44% | 50.5% | 49% | 51% | ||
| VA-10 | 52.2% | 42.2% | 56% | 44% |
[Daily Kos Elections, accessed 6/15/17]
Drilling down to specific counties within these Congressional districts, the enthusiasm gap that Republicans will have to overcome continues to be apparent.
- Virginia’s 10th, Rep. Comstock
| Virginia 10 – House | 2016 General Bennett Vote | 2016 General Comstock Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Loudoun | 89,523 50% | 89,358 50% | 20,847 63% | 12,393 37% |
| Fairfax County | 52,976 49% | 55,268 51% | 16,064 61% | 10,112 39% |
| Winchester City | 4,970 47% | 5,497 53% | 1,264 55% | 1,037 45% |
| Clarke | 2,895 37% | 4,988 63% | 927 48% | 1,028 52% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 10 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Loudoun | 100,975 59% | 69,949 41% | 20,847 63% | 12,393 37% |
| Fairfax County | 355,133 69% | 157,710 31% | 16,064 61% | 10,112 39% |
| Winchester City | 5,164 52% | 4,790 53% | 1,264 55% | 1,037 45% |
| Clarke | 3,051 40% | 4,661 63% | 947 48% | 1,028 52% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
Notable — Corey Stewart defeated Ed Gillespie in VA-10. [Decision Desk, 6/13/17]
- Virginia’s 2nd, Rep. Taylor
| Virginia 02 – House | 2016 General Brown Vote | 2016 General Taylor Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia Beach City | 72,110 38% | 119,362 62% | 24,045 51% | 23,427 49% |
| Northampton | 2,741 46% | 3,240 54% | 1,041 66% | 535 34% |
| Accomack | 5,660 37% | 9,492 63% | 2,116 57% | 1,631 43% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 02 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Virginia Beach City | 91,032 48% | 98,224 52% | 24,045 51% | 23,427 49% |
| Northampton | 3,255 55% | 2,686 45% | 1,041 66% | 535 34% |
| Accomack | 6,740 44% | 8,583 56% | 2,116 57% | 1,621 43% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
- Virginia’s 7th, Rep. Brat
| Virginia 07 – House | 2016 General Bedell Vote | 2016 General Brat Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Henrico | 55,118 49% | 56,841 51% | 18,691 55% | 15,553 45% |
| Chesterfield | 55,692 46% | 66,062 54% | 17,406 56% | 13,748 44% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 07 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Henrico | 62,429 56% | 49,289 44% | 18,691 55% | 15,553 45% |
| Chesterfield | 59,074 50% | 58,798 50% | 17,406 56% | 13,748 44% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
- Virginia’s 5th, Rep. Garrett
| Virginia 05 – House | 2016 General Dittmar Vote | 2016 General Garrett Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Charlottesville | 17,404 79% | 4,565 21% | 8,418 94% | 526 6% |
| Fauquier | 10,564 36% | 18,901 64% | 3,486 41% | 5,094 59% |
| Albemarle | 31,326 58% | 22,784 42% | 14,238 78% | 4,065 22% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
| Virginia 05 – Presidential | 2016 Clinton Vote | 2016 Trump Vote | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Dem Turnout | 2017 Gubernatorial Primary Rep Turnout |
| Charlottesville | 17,901 86% | 2,960 14% | 8,418 94% | 526 6% |
| Fauquier | 12,971 37% | 22,127 63% | 3,486 41% | 5,094 59% |
| Albemarle | 33,345 63% | 19,259 37% | 14,238 78% | 4,065 22% |
[Virginia Department of Elections, accessed 6/14/17]
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