Home 2020 Elections WaPo Virginia Poll: Joe Biden/Kamala Harris +11 pts (52%-41%); Sen. Mark Warner...

WaPo Virginia Poll: Joe Biden/Kamala Harris +11 pts (52%-41%); Sen. Mark Warner +18 pts (57%-39%)


Highlights from the new Virginia poll by the Washington Post and GMU’s Schar School below:

  • Biden/Harris are up 11 points (52%-41%) over Trump/Pence.
  • There is a big “gender gap,” as Biden/Harris are up 24 points (59%-35%), while Trump/Pence are up 3 points (47%-44%) among men. Also note: “White women are split almost evenly between Trump and Biden; four years ago, exit polls showed they favored Trump by 13 points.”
  • Regionally, the Northern Virginia suburbs of D.C. continue to be the biggest blue stronghold in the state, with Biden leading there by 44 points among likely voters, similar to Clinton’s 41-point margin in 2016.”
  • There is a big racial gap, with Biden/Harris up 76 points (84%-8%) among African Americans, up 63 points (76%-13%) among “NET non-white,” but DOWN 12 points (41%-53%) among whites.
  • There is also a big education gap, with Biden/Harris up 29 points (60%-31%) among those with a college degree, but down 16 points (40%-56%) among those with a High School education or less.
  • “The president’s 10 percentage-point lead in the solidly red Southwest portion of the state is down from the 33-point advantage he held there over Clinton in 2016″
  • Sen. Mark Warner is crushing Republican Daniel Gade by 18 points (57%-39%), with Gade winning “High School or Less,” and Warner winning pretty much everything else (e.g., up 73 points among African Americans, up 33 points among women…).
  • By a 57%-41% margin, Virginia voters DISAPPROVE of Trump’s performance as president. These numbers are similar to the last poll, in late September, which had Trump’s disapproval at 58%-40%.
  • In the “generic” Congressional ballot question, voters favor the Democratic candidate by 8 points (50%-42%). “In three competitive congressional districts — the 2nd, 5th and 7th — the split is closer, at 50 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans, which is within the four-percentage-point margin of sampling error that applies to each party’s support.
  • 20% say they’ve already voted, another 33% say they will vote early, and 46% say they’ll vote on Election Day.

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