See below for a new poll of Virginia by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. As far as I’m aware, this is the first public polling of the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, although we did report on Jennifer McClellan’s “internal” poll on December 30. A few highlights of the Mason-Dixon poll (of 625 registered Virginia voters statewide… interviewed live by telephone; poll conducted 12/14-12/18) are as follows:
- Not surprisingly, given that he was governor for four years: “Former governor Terry McAuliffe is clearly the best known Virginia gubernatorial candidate as the 2021 statewide election gets underway”
- “Among all state voters, McAuliffe gets mixed reviews – 29% have a favorable opinion of him and 24% have an unfavorable view. However, among Democrats McAuliffe remains a strong force with 51% having a favorable opinion and only 10% holding an unfavorable one. “
- “Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax lags behind McAuliffe among Democrats, with a 24%/14% favorable to unfavorable ratio. While that could be a viable position to launch a challenge for the nomination, Fairfax appears to be a much weaker nominee for the general election. Among all voters, only 12% have a favorable view of him while almost double that (22%) have an unfavorable one.”
- “Among the other Democrats, Jennifer McClellan may be the most serious contender for McAuliffe. While still unknown to just over half of Democratic voters, her favorable recognition is 22% and her unfavorable rating is just 2%.”
- “On the Republican side, the race appears to be wide open. Amanda Chase has a slight recognition advantage over Kirk Cox. Chase is known by 54% of GOP voters and has a favorable/unfavorable rating of 27%-3%, while Cox has 47%
name recognition and a 22%-7% rating.”
- The “don’t recognize” #s among all voters are, in descending order: Lee Carter (85% don’t recognize him); Jennifer Carrol Foy (78% don’t recognize her); Jennifer McClellan (73% don’t recognize her); Kirk Cox (67% don’t recognize him); Amanda Chase (53% don’t recognize her); Justin Fairfax (35% don’t recognize him); Terry McAuliffe (12% don’t recognize him).
- The “don’t recognize” #s among Democratic voters only are, in descending order: Lee Carter (82% don’t recognize him); Jennifer Carroll Foy (62% don’t recognize her); Jennifer McClellan (51% don’t recognize her); Justin Fairfax (21% don’t recognize him); Terry McAuliffe (5% don’t recognize him).
- Among Dems, the Favorable/Unfavorable #s are: McAuliffe 51%-10%; Fairfax 24%-14%; McClellan 22%-2%; Carroll Foy 10%-3%; Carter 4%-1%.