“Republicans rode a ‘silver surge’ to victory in VA last year”; “differential turnout > persuasion”; “CRT etc. more about juicing turnout than winning over voters”

Good stuff from J. Miles Coleman of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” Tom Bonier of “Target Smart,” Sam Shirazi, etc. A few key points include:

• “Yes Youngkin won some Biden voters But many were going to vote for any GOP nominee that wasn’t Amanda Chase anyways The key to his success was maximizing GOP turnout Dems could not keep up despite own increase. CRT etc. more about juicing turnout than winning over voters” – Sam Shirazi
• “The best map I’ve seen explaining the VA result, from
  @BruneElections. Leads you to the same conclusion, that differential turnout > persuasion.” – J. Miles Coleman
• “Republicans rode a ‘silver surge’ to victory in VA last year. Senior turnout surged to unprecedented levels – somewhat shockingly, more voters over the age of 75 voted in the 2021 election than have in any VA election other than 2020….This chart shows the percent increase in total ballots cast in VA between 2017 and 2021 by age group. There is nothing here that suggests that parents of school children were driven out to the polls by closures, masks, vaccines, etc. Seniors were mobilized though.” – Tom Bonier