See here and below for some helpful graphics by VPAP, showing “how each General Assembly district [and U.S. House district] leans Republican or Democratic compared to Virginia as a whole,” “rank[ing] each of Virginia’s state legislative and congressional districts based on the average of their estimated performance in the 2021 gubernatorial elections and the reallocated 2022 congressional elections.” A few highlights include:
- Keep in mind that averaging in 2021 results (a good year for Republicans) and 2022 results (a mostly “neutral” year), without including the great Democratic years of 2017-2020, skews these numbers in the Republican direction. For instance, if you count the 2017 AG race and average it in with 2021 and 2022, SD31 moves from D+2.5 points to D+4.5 points.
- As Sam Shirazi correctly points out: “The State Senate seat right in the middle that gets each party to a majority is SD-31 in Loudoun/Fauquier between Democrat Russet Perry and Republican Juan Pablo Segura. It really could be the seat in that decides.”
- In the State Senate, key districts are SD24 (+2.5 points Democratic), held by State Sen. Monty Mason (D), who’s facing right-wing Republican Danny Diggs this November; SD31 (+2.5 points Democratic), open seat…candidates are Russet Perry (D) vs. Juan Pablo Segura (R); SD17 (+2.1 points Republican), candidates are Clint Jenkins (D) vs. Emily Brewer (R); SD27 (+3.2 points Republican), candidates are Joel Griffin (D), Tara Durant (R) and Monica Gary (I); and SD30 (+5.0 points Democratic), candidates are Danica Roem (D) and Bill Woolf (R).
- In the House of Delegates, key districts are HD82 (+0.5 points Republican), candidates are Kimberly Pope Adams (D) and Del. Kim Taylor (R); HD21 (+0.8 points Republican), candidates are Josh Thomas and John Stirrup; HD57 (+1.1 points Republican), candidates are Susanna Gibson (D) and David Owen (R); HD97 (+1.5 points Democratic), candidates are Michael Feggans (D) and Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R); HD65 (+3.0 points Democratic), candidates are Joshua Cole (D) and Lee Peters (R); HD22 (+4.9 points Republican), candidates are Travis Nembhard (D) and Ian Lovejoy (R); etc.
- The most competitive U.S. House seat is HD07, which VPAP lists at +0.1 points Republican. The seat is held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), who won in 2022 by a 52.2%-47.6% margin. The next two most competitive U.S. House seats are HD10 (+4.0 points Democratic), held by Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D); and HD2 (+7.2 points Republican), held by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R).
What else jumps out at you from these numbers?