Home 2023 Elections Now That the Virginia 2023 Primaries Are Over, Here Are the Partisan...

Now That the Virginia 2023 Primaries Are Over, Here Are the Partisan Rankings (from VPAP) for All State Senate, House of Delegates Districts for November

In addition to SD31, key VA Senate districts are SD24, SD17, SD27, etc.; key HoD districts are HD82, HD21, HD57, HD97, HD65, etc.

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See here and below for some helpful graphics by VPAP, showing “how each General Assembly district [and U.S. House district] leans Republican or Democratic compared to Virginia as a whole,” “rank[ing] each of Virginia’s state legislative and congressional districts based on the average of their estimated performance in the 2021 gubernatorial elections and the reallocated 2022 congressional elections.” A few highlights include:

  • Keep in mind that averaging in 2021 results (a good year for Republicans) and 2022 results (a mostly “neutral” year), without including the great Democratic years of 2017-2020, skews these numbers in the Republican direction. For instance, if you count the 2017 AG race and average it in with 2021 and 2022, SD31 moves from D+2.5 points to D+4.5 points.
  • As Sam Shirazi correctly points out: “The State Senate seat right in the middle that gets each party to a majority is SD-31 in Loudoun/Fauquier between Democrat Russet Perry and Republican Juan Pablo Segura. It really could be the seat in that decides.”
  • In the State Senate, key districts are SD24 (+2.5 points Democratic), held by State Sen. Monty Mason (D), who’s facing right-wing Republican Danny Diggs this November; SD31 (+2.5 points Democratic), open seat…candidates are Russet Perry (D) vs. Juan Pablo Segura (R); SD17 (+2.1 points Republican), candidates are Clint Jenkins (D) vs. Emily Brewer (R); SD27 (+3.2 points Republican), candidates are Joel Griffin (D), Tara Durant (R) and Monica Gary (I); and SD30 (+5.0 points Democratic), candidates are Danica Roem (D) and Bill Woolf (R).
  • In the House of Delegates, key districts are HD82 (+0.5 points Republican), candidates are Kimberly Pope Adams (D) and Del. Kim Taylor (R); HD21 (+0.8 points Republican), candidates are Josh Thomas and John Stirrup; HD57 (+1.1 points Republican), candidates are Susanna Gibson (D) and David Owen (R); HD97 (+1.5 points Democratic), candidates are Michael Feggans (D) and Del. Karen Greenhalgh (R); HD65 (+3.0 points Democratic), candidates are Joshua Cole (D) and Lee Peters (R); HD22 (+4.9 points Republican), candidates are Travis Nembhard (D) and Ian Lovejoy (R); etc.
  • The most competitive U.S. House seat is HD07, which VPAP lists at +0.1 points Republican. The seat is held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), who won in 2022 by a 52.2%-47.6% margin. The next two most competitive U.S. House seats are HD10 (+4.0 points Democratic), held by Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D); and HD2 (+7.2 points Republican), held by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R).

What else jumps out at you from these numbers?

 

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