US Energy Information Administration: Virginia Has Most Rapid Power Demand Growth in US, Largely Due to “rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers”

The other day, I wrote about the rapid growth in data centers here in Virginia, as well as how those data centers might be powered – or fail to get sufficient power, thus limiting their growth. This morning, the US Energy Information Administration further highlights the challenge facing Virginia policymakers, power producers, etc., as it reports:

“… the growth in commercial demand for electricity [between 2019 and 2023] is concentrated in a handful of states experiencing rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers. Electricity demand has grown the most in Virginia, which added 14 BkWh, and Texas, which added 13 BkWh. Based on our expectation that regional electricity demand will grow, we revised our forecasts upward for commercial electricity demand through 2025 in our June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Electricity demand has grown the most in Virginia, largely driven by Dominion Energy Virginia, the main electricity utility in the state. Virginia has become a major hub for data centers, with 94 new facilities connected since 2019 given the access to a densely packed fiber backbone and to four subsea fiber cables.”

This finding corresponds with the recently released JLARC data centers study, as well as Ivy Main’s analysis, namely that: 1) “JLARC notes we are headed for a tripling of the state’s electricity usage over just the next decade and a half”; and 2) “Building enough infrastructure to provide electricity for even just half the data centers projected for development across the state will be difficult, requiring far more generating facilities than are under development today.”

Another crucial point by Ivy Main is that “meeting that much demand…would be ‘very difficult to achieve,’ even if the state jettisoned the carbon emission limits imposed by the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA).” Of course, not only shouldn’t the VCEA’s goals for Virginia clean energy growth be “jettisoned,” if anything they need to be much MORE aggressive. As Cindy Cunningham and I wrote back in 2020, the main problem with VCEA is that its goals are too far into the future. And as Sen. Dave Marsden’s VCEA recent summit found:

• While “75 localities have approved solar projects…one solar company said during a panel the uncertainty of the local approval process is causing ‘sleepless nights.'”
• “PJM has a backlog of about 208,500 megawatts of energy generation sources awaiting approval across its entire footprint, which stretches across the mid-Atlantic. About 53,492 megawatts is awaiting approval in Virginia, with about 29,600 of that being solar.”
• “Will Cleveland, a former Southern Environmental Law Center attorney now with his own private practice, said “the Virginia Clean Economy Act, doesn’t work if it doesn’t deliver you a zero- carbon grid that is both affordable and reliable. ‘If we don’t get all three of those things, it’s not going to work and it’s not a sustainable policy,’ Cleveland said. ‘I think energy efficiency and demand response have a much larger role to play in achieving those … three goals than they do now.'”

In sum, VCEA was a good start, but the rapid growth in power demand – in large part due to data centers and the growth of AI – plus obstacles to rapidly building new clean energy projects AND connecting them to the grid, as well as energy efficiency goals not being nearly ambitious enough, are threatening to undermine what was one of the biggest pieces of legislation in 2020, and arguably in many years, here in Virginia.  The big question, as the 2025 Virginia General Assembly gears up next week, is what policymakers plan to do about this challenging situation.