According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA):
“Per capita CO2 emissions from primary energy consumption decreased in every state from 2005 to 2023, according to recently released data in our State Energy Data System. Total energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States fell 20% over that time, and the population grew by 14%, leading to a 30% decrease in per capita CO2 emissions.
CO2 emissions across the country primarily declined because less coal was burned in the electric power sector. Increased electricity generation from natural gas, which releases about half as many CO2 emissions per unit of energy when combusted as coal, and from non-CO2-emitting wind and solar generation offset the decrease in coal generation. Looking ahead, our Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts a slight 1% increase in U.S. total CO2 emissions in 2025, in part because of more recent increased fossil fuel consumption for crude oil production and electricity generation growth.”
As for Virginia specifically, our per capita C02 emissions fell 37% between 2005 and 2023, which ranks us 15th in the nation – and better than the U.S. average of a 30% decline in per capita CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2023.
Sounds good, right? Well yes, sort of, except that there’s a big “BUT” that has to be mentioned. Which is that a LOT of this decline in C02 emissions stemmed from an increase in power generation from natural gas, which as EIA points out, “releases about half as many CO2 emissions per unit of energy when combusted as coal.”
In Virginia, specifically, total C02 emissions in 2023 stemmed from petroleum (55.7 million metric tons), natural gas (34.5 million metric tons) and coal (just 4.4 million metric tons). Petroleum, of course, is overwhelmingly consumed in the transportation sector. As for the power generation sector in Virginia, according to EIA, generation from coal-fired plants fell from 35,424,875 megawatthours in 2005 to just 1,415,027 megawatthours in 2023 – a massive 96% reduction in coal-fired power generation in Virginia between 2005 and 2023. In contrast, during the same period, natural gas-fired power generation INCREASED from 8,294,770 megawatthours in 2005 to 50,604,694 megawatthours in 2023 – a six-fold (!) increase.
So that’s “good” in the sense that natural gas has a lot less CO2 per unit of energy when combusted as coal, BUT it’s very bad in that natural gas also is a major source of METHANE (a potent greenhouse gas, and the main – between 70% and 90% – component of natural gas) emissions. And according to an analysis by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), “a methane leakage of just 0.2 percent in a gas system can bring its climate risk on par with coal.” As RMI explains, “over a 20-year period, [methane] traps over 82.5 times more heat than [C02],” so “when methane leakage from gas systems is included, the climate benefit of gas compared to coal flips.” Not good, to put it mildly.
The answer? Obviously, for a bunch of reasons – climate impacts, other environmental harms, adverse health impacts, cost, etc. – we should be getting off of fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil) as rapidly as possible and switching to solar, wind, energy efficiency (in its own way, the “biggest bang for the buck” when it comes to energy), energy storage, cleantech (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps), etc. Here in Virginia, according to EIA, we’ve made a bit of progress in that regard, mostly on the solar power front, with solar power generation growing from literally ZERO in 2005 to 5,421,243 megawatthours in 2023. That’s ok, but still not even close to sufficient, as it represents only 11% the amount of electricity in Virginia generated by natural gas. As for wind power, it increased from ZERO in 2005 to 46,959 megawatthours in 2023 – just one THOUSANDTH the amount of electricity generated by natural gas (note: this will increase dramatically once Dominion Energy’s massive offshore wind facility opens, hopefully late next year.
Anyway, the bottom line of all this is simple: while Virginia has made progress reducing its per capita CO2 emissions, that’s mostly due to switching from coal (high CO2 emissions but no methane) to natural gas (somewhat lower C02 emissions but comes with emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane). So switching from coal to natural gas really doesn’t solve the greenhouse gas/climate problem at all, not to mention all the other problems that come with natural gas extraction (e.g., fracking) and transportation (pipelines and LNG facilities are expensive, environmentally destructive, etc.). Plus natural gas is far more expensive than energy efficiency or solar. Which is why building new natural gas facilities – pipelines, power plants, whatever – is so foolish, on multiple levels.
P.S. Oh, and since there’s so much blather from Youngkin and other politicians about nuclear power supposedly being part of the solution, according to EIA, nuclear power generation in Virginia has barely changed in two decades. The reason for that? Very simple: new nuclear power plants are SUPER expensive, far more than new solar or wind facilities for instance, and also take a lot longer to build.
