This is a potentially huge story:
“The next front in the nation’s pitched battle over mid-decade congressional redistricting is opening in Virginia, where Democrats are planning the first step toward redrawing congressional maps, a move that could give their party two or three more seats.
The surprise development, which is set to be announced by legislators on Thursday, would make Virginia the second state, after California, in which Democrats try to counter a wave of Republican moves demanded by President Trump to redistrict states to their advantage before the 2026 midterm elections. No other Democratic state has begun redistricting proceedings, while several Republican states have drawn new maps or are deliberating doing so.”
For more analysis of this, see Sam Shirazi’s tweet, in which he looks at the Virginia Constitution and concludes:
“‘not sooner than ninety days after final passage by the General Assembly’…Basically means referendum election can be held 90 days after passed early next year…Theoretically possible for spring referendum in Virginia”
Also, as Sam Shirazi just tweeted,
“There will be at least one more October surprise in Virginia. According to NYT, Dems will announce today General Assembly will meet Monday. They have to pass something before election for there to have any chance for it to pass next year. We’ll see what they do and if have votes.”
Oh, and if you subscribe to Virginia Scope, check out their Substack post here (“A special session next week? Democrats are strongly considering calling a special session ahead of Election Day”)
My take is that this is 100% something Democrats SHOULD do, but whether they have the votes to do it, who knows (remember, Dems only have a very narrow 21-19 majority in the State Senate, so they can’t afford to lose any votes; also, Dems only have a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates, so ditto!). The problem is, there may be some “true believers” in the House and/or Senate Democratic caucuses, given that the vast majority of Democratic State Senators, and half a dozen or so Democratic delegates who are still there, voted for the fatally flawed/disastrous redistricting amendment back in 2020. But hopefully, given the Republicans’ all-out war on democracy, and on Democrats, across the country, they’ll reconsider their stance that unilateral disarmament ever makes any sense.
If Democrats *are* able to pass a new redistricting amendment, theoretically they could make it very likely they could pick up VA02, which is basically a tossup as it is; possibly VA01 (which is tougher than VA02, but which the DCCC has targeted); maybe even VA05. Currently, Democrats have a 6-5 edge in Virginia’s U.S. House delegation, controlling VA03 (Rep. Bobby Scott), VA04 (Rep. Jennifer McClellan), VA07 (Rep. Eugene Vindman), VA08 (Rep. Don Beyer), VA10 (Rep. Suhas Subramanyam), and VA11 (Rep. James Walkinshaw), while Republicans control VA01 (Rep. Rob Wittman), VA02 (Rep. Jen Kiggans), VA05 (Rep. John McGuire), VA06 (Rep. Ben Cline) and VA09 (Rep. Morgan Griffith). Also, of course, Democrats could draw lines that would all but guarantee they’d control the State Senate and House of Delegates indefinitely. So…why wouldn’t they do this, given what Republicans are doing in the states THEY control, and what they’d do in Virginia if they could? Any serious arguments, other than the terminal naivete of the 1VA2021’s of the world?
P.S. The reason this is so surprising is that almost everyone, myself included, seems to have assumed that this process would take three years (pass the amendment in the 2027 session; elections in November 2027; pass it again in the 2028 session; referendum in November 2028). But obviously, holding a special session right before the 2025 elections (including not just for statewide offices, but also for the entire House of Delegates), then voting again in the 2026 General Assembly session, would also seem to satisfy the constitutional requirements…
