Are you a poll junkie? Well, then, you’re going to love this: several new polls of the Virginia elections; see below for details.
First, Atlas Intel (which, “According to an analysis by polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 United States presidential election, with an average error of 2.2 points” – and “the second best pollster” in 2024).
- Governor: Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears by 8.7 points (53.9%-45.2%). This is a bit lower than Spanberger’s 10.9-point lead in the polling average.
- Lt. Governor: Ghazala Hashmi leads John Reid by 6.1 points (51.7%-45.6%). This is a wider lead than most other recent polls have shown for Hashmi, and seems more logical, relative to Spanberger’s lead and the relative lack of split-ticket voting these days.
- Attorney General: Jason Miyares leads Jay Jones by 1.5 points (48.1%-46.6%), which is within the poll’s margin of error.
- Approval Ratings: Glenn Youngkin at just +3 (43%-40%), which is terrible for a Virginia governor at this point in their terms, and also terrible compared to governors around the country. Donald Trump is at MINUS 15 (40%-55%), which is about in line with other polls – and really bad, obviously. Winsome Earle-Sears is at MINUS 11 (40%-51%) approval, while Jason Miyares is at MINUS 4 (41%-45%) approval.
- Youngkin’s ratings on the issues: They’re mostly negative, with just three exceptions – crime (+1 point), economy/jobs (+3 points), inflation/cost of living/affordability (+2 points). Youngkin scores a MINUS 10 on healthcare and also on transgender rights, and a MINUS 12 on reproductive rights; also a MINUS 8 on safeguarding democracy.
- Government shutdown: Virginians mostly (46.9%-41%) blame Republicans.
- Image of political figures: Barack Obama has a +8 (53%-45%) favorable rating; Tim Kaine is +7 (50%-43%); Ghazala Hashmi is +7 (43%-36%); Abigail Spanberger is +4 (51%-47%); etc. – see below for more.
- Top issues: #1 is inflation/cost of living/affodability, at 56.2%; #2 is economy/jobs, at 33.6%; etc. Jay Jones’ text messages are at just 5.8%, while transgender rights are at just 5.7%. Surprisingly, the 2025 government shutdown is at just 4.3%.
- Midterms: Virginians favor the Democratic candidate by a 51%-45% margin over the Republican candidate.
Another poll released yesterday was by Echelon. See below for results, which actually are surprisingly good for Democrats, given that this is a Republican pollster.
- Governor: Spanberger up 12 points (55%-43%)
- Lt. Governor: Hashmi up 3 points (49%-46%)
- Attorney General: Miyares up 3 points (49%-46%)
- House of Delegates: Dems up 11 points (52%-41%)
- Redistricting amendment: Up 1 point (45%-44%)
- Also, YouGov has Spanberger +14 (55%-41%) over Earle-Sears. And “When counting undecided voters by which candidate they’re leaning toward, the Spanberger lead widens slightly, to a 57% to 42% margin.”
- SoCal Strategies has Spanberger +10 (53%-43%), Hashmi +2 (47%-45%), Miyares +2 (48%-46%)
- According to VPAP, Virginia early voting as of Wednesday was running as follows: Dems: 667k; Rs: 463k (200k+ lead for Dems…should expand to 250k or so after this weekend and rest of mail is added)
- State Navigate forecasts right now:
- StateNavigate out with a new poll, best in ages for Jay Jones (+3/+4), also for Ghazala Hashmi (+12); excellent for Abigail Spanberger (+13) and generic HoD (D+11) too
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