Last night was the traditional, post-election “After Virginia Votes” program (see video, below), put on by VPAP. To me, what’s been interesting about these events in the past is when the campaign representatives spoke more freely/frankly than they ever would (or could) have during the campaign. That way, we get some interesting insights into what was *really* happening, not the canned talking points that the campaigns spewed out during the campaign (about how their campaigns were totally focused on their messages, never deviated from their plans or were thrown off their games, were not worried or surprised, their polling never really moved much, their victories were the result of their own brilliance and not external factors – e.g.., a super-unpopular president in the White Houe, a government shutdown – which probably accounted for 80% of it, etc.). So with that…here are a few things that jumped out at me.
- Spanberger campaign manager Samson Signori argued: “I think you saw Abigail Spanberger win because she was laser focused on lowering costs at a time when voters are tired of division and chaos and frankly tired of of of having to pay attention to politics every single day. In Abigail Spanberger, they saw a candidate who was steady, who was steadfast, and who was laser focused on the issues that matter most to voters – lowering costs, boosting the economy, keeping our community safe. And that’s why last Tuesday, you didn’t see just a landslide victory, but in my opinion, a coalition redefining victory.”
- Republican Scott Weldon, filling in (at the last minute) for lead Earle-Sears strategist for Mark Harris, followed up on that: “taking what Sam has said as well, I think all of that kind of coalesced behind also a kind of a weak candidate in Winsome and kind of a poorly run campaign to kind of give them the victory that that we saw last week.”
- On the controversy over John Reid, specifically Glenn Youngkin demanding that he drop out, Weldon said: “I tend to think that it was more of a distraction than it was any sort of major impetus [sic; he presumably meant impediment] to success for the campaign. I think it became kind of a stumbling point, but nothing that kind of really impacted the effort as they were getting going. I think they were having trouble getting going to begin with, and I think that was just something that kind of was more of a distraction from the…I think the campaign that should have been running up and running already.“
- Signori argued “this was the most coordinated that Democrats have ever been in the Commonwealth.”
- With regard to Trump, Signori said “I think one thing we did correctly on our campaign is we didn’t really focus on Trump; we focused on the consequences of Trump, not on his personality, but on his policies specifically when they impacted voters’ pocketbooks.”
- On the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s erratic messaging, Weldon said “as you look kind of from the beginning of that the campaign on, there was really no clear message… they were trying to find the the message that was selling…they had a similar ad to what Donald Trump ran last year that I think kind of fell flat on the ‘they/them’…towards the end of the campaign and I think they stayed on that message for about a month. Similar on the on the bathroom issue. Which I think was kind of one of the things that where Abigail was head and shoulders kind of above, where you had a focus on cost of living, healthcare, you know, issues that were really percolating in people’s minds, especially up here in Northern Virginia where you had a government shutdown in the midst as well.”
- Weldon added an interesting point: “Donald Trump never gave a fullthroated endorsement. The Republican Party has become the party of low-propensity turnout, and the higher the turnout becomes, the better the Republican Party does. So in this instance where you have kind of an unmotivated low-propensity Republican base, you’ve got to find a way to motivate them to show up. And I think…in terms of the message they were putting out, that trying to emulate some of the messaging that Donald Trump did. But as we’ve kind of learned, Donald Trump’s the only person that can do that.” Also, Earle-Sears “trying to to walk that tight rope is very difficult, especially in this environment where, you know, if you’re not in in full alignment with Trump, it can be damaging to you to the base.”
- Signori: “We would invoke Trump and speak out against Trump whenever he did anything that impacted Virginians’ daily lives. DOGE federal workforce cuts, especially hitting Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads; the gutting of healthcare, which drove up premiums for Virginians, and also closed, I think it’s three rural health clinics out in Southwest [Virginia]…so for us, it was really any time that Trump was affecting Virginians’ pocketbooks was the time that we were going to speak out against the consequences of him.”
- Signori: “I think if it’s a coalition that is headed up by people like Abigail Spanberger – focused, pragmatic, steady leaders who are focused on the issues that matter most to Virginians – if that’s the kind of leadership and the kind of example that’s at the forefront of our politics, I absolutely think that’s a coalition can that can last.”
- Weldon: “I think one of her best commercials was the parental rights ad that [Earle-Sears] put out with the woman face to camera testimonial ad. it was one of the best I think pieces of media that she did the entire campaign. That being said, I also think that there was…a misplaced kind of focus where the entire energy of your campaign could have been and should have been focused on the issues that matter to voters. That’s your pocketbook...we don’t need to relitigate the 2021 campaign again or anything out, you know, 2024, you’re in a new environment. You need to kind of adapt to it. “
- Signori: “I think Abigail was always consistent on where she stood on this issue [transgender kids] from the beginning of the campaign to the end. I believe that the Sears campaign and Republicans broadly got way ahead of their skis on culture war issues. They ran campaigns relentlessly focused on obsessively focused on culture wars, entirely devoid of any economic argument and any argument about how they’re going to make lives truly better for Virginians. But we knew that Sears and and her campaign were going to run these culture war, gender isssue style attack ads on Abigail. And we had multiple ads cut, ad tested, ready to go. And I think that first attack ad that you saw the GOP put out we had a response up in about 2 hours...We knew that the…Republican opponent was going to come after and try to smear us specifically on the culture war issues. So, we laid down a solid foundation that Abigail is a former federal law enforcement officer, former CIA case officer, mother to three girls who was relentlessly focused on lowering costs and making our communities safe. So, I think that when Sears rolled out those culture war ads, they largely fell on deaf ears.”
- Weldon on why Republicans released the Jones’ texts “oppo” when they did, after early voting started: ” I think they made the kind of strategic decision that those messages were going to be released to try and maximize the length that they could keep that message moving…I think it was, like I said, the first time that the ticket really had some enthusiasm behind it, whether it was, you know, anti-Jones because even if you saw the the Winsome campaign shifted their messaging, not against Abigail anymore. That wasn’t working as well. So, they shifted more on the Jay Jones message and a couple other, you know, ancillary pieces around that…”
- Signori: “…by and large from the time that the scandal came out to the end of the campaign, we saw very little movement internally on our end, just from a polling perspective…”
- Weldon on Earle-Sears’ behavior at the debate: “I think to the public watching it, it was not something that was appealing to anybody. To many people watching it, I don’t think they appreciated that tactic. I don’t think it was good. But it gave Winsome the best, I think, ad that she had the entire campaign…but I don’t think the tactic itself is very impactful or helpful…”
- Signori: “…our strategy was that if our opponent was going to be disrespectful on the debate stage and interrupt or do anything of the sort that we wouldn’t follow her down that path. And we wanted to have a debate that was focused solely on the issues…”
- Weldon, asked whether the Earle-Sears’ debate strategy was worth it: “Last Tuesday is a pretty good indication of that.”
- Signori on the “I am speaking” messaging: “If a voter begins to tire of it, that’s right when our message is breaking through in our opinion. But…one of the things that I was really proud of with that specific ad, and this was part of the strategy that we put together, is we wanted to make something that not only resonated and became thematic in the paid media capacity, but could also expand outside of just paid media into social media and and kind of into political culture in Virginia…and we saw that play out.”
- Signori on the government shutdown’s impact on the campaign: “for us, the government shutdown was unfortunately proof of the exact problem that we were trying to highlight and talk about in our campaign.”
- On candidate access, Weldon said: “I think that there’s a piece of this that was…we’ll call it the risk/reward. You know, is it worth putting yourself out there to have an issue like President Biden did last year…like the risk of being out in front of a camera, in front of an audience, in front of people…and honestly like especially with what we saw in the Charlie Kirk shooting. I think there’s a lot of fear in candidates and there’s death threats and everything out there. So I think you take the two things out there that people are seeing from a high level whether it’s the risk/reward. So I think they they look at this as is it worth being out there politically and then do I feel safe being there as well…Is it worth speaking when it doesn’t improve the sound of silence?”
- On the redistricting amendment, Weldon said it offers Republicans an opportunity politically speaking. Signori said “I know Dems in the State House and Senate wanted to preserve optionality. So they took that vote before the Tuesday election. I’ve been in close touch with a lot of the leadership in the House and Senate to sort of see how things come together. I think there’s more information to come and we’ll have to see.”
- Asked, “Is Virginia Blue,” Weldon said “Yes.” Signori said “I think Virginia has been and remains to be purple…we were the only race in the nation to actually flip a seat from red to blue on Tuesday nationwide. And I think that this remains a battleground state, one that Abigail Spanberger just won quite handily.”
(Also, funniest line of the debate: as it ended, Weldon joked, “I’m done speaking!”)
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