With the 2026 VA General Assembly session kicking off next Wednesday, it’s getting down to the proverbial “crunch time” when it comes to the proposed new redistricting amendment – and specifically whether Democrats will shoot for a 10D-1R or 9D-2R map (currently, it’s 6D-5R, although note that Spanberger won 8 or the 11 districts back in November). Another question is whether we’ll see the proposed new maps before the General Assembly starts voting on the amendment next week, or will we not see those maps until after the redistricting is passed? approved by voters?
And what will those maps look like, exactly? For a few examples of what 10D-1R and 9D-2R maps might look like, see below (although note that there are many other potential variants). So clearly, in a 10D-1R map, the only safe Republican left would be Morgan Griffith in VA09 (it’s essentially impossible, given the geography and partisan nature of southwestern Virginia, to draw a competitive VA09), with even Ben Cline in VA06 being in a compettive seat, as would John McGuire in VA05, Rob Wittman in VA01 and Jen Kiggans in VA02. In a 9D-2R map, on the other hand, both Griffith and Cline would be safe, while McGuire, Wittman and Kiggans would almost certainly be “toast,” politically speaking, in November.
So is there any major advantage to NOT just “going for it” and drawing a 10D-1R map, given that we’re going through all this effort to pass a new constitutional amendment? As you can see, below, it looks like VA Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas is VERY much “going for it,” as she says she’s “sticking with [a 10-1 map] today,” adding that “anyone in the Congressional delegation who wants a seat needs to campaign for it and not expect a safe seat.” Innnnnteresting. Also see below for a comment by State Senator Schuyler VanValkenburg, who has been one of the biggest champions in the legislature for the bipartisan redistricting amendment and against gerrymandering. According to Sen. VanValkenburg, though, at this point here’s where we’re at.
“If democracy is in danger from Trump’s attempts to mid-decade redraw in Texas, Miss and NC, then we must act accordingly. In January, I’m not voting to send redistricting to voters just to reinforce the status quo. We can get 8-3 w/ the current maps. 10-1. Right, Sen. Louise Lucas?”
Lucas’ response to that, as noted above, was that…yep, 10-1 is what she wants to see. So given all that, it’s seeming increasingly likely, if not a total “lock,” that: a) the new redistricting amendment will pass the General Assembly; b) the proposed map will be 10D-1R; c) voters will vote on that amendment – and likely approve it, although obviously that is NOT guaranteed – probably in April; d) House primaries will be probably be pushed off, maybe until July or August; e) it’s gonna be wild, so strap in! LOL
P.S. See Punchbowl for more (“Democrats are deliberating over just how aggressively to rewrite the congressional map in Virginia ahead of the November midterms”):
