8 Winners and 8 Losers (and 8 Mixed) from the New Virginia Redistricting Map

Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from the new Virginia redistricting map released yesterday. Note that this list isn’t intended comprehensive – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section – nor are they in any particular order (other than what order they randomly popped into my head, lol). Also, check out Map Favored by House of Delegates Becomes Virginia’s New Democratic Gerrymander by State Navigate, 10-1: Virginia Dems Release Their Proposed Map by Sam Shirazi (also this tweet by Sam), and 10 things to know about the Democrats’ proposed redistricting map, all of which have good ideas for “winners and losers.”

WINNERS

1. Hakeem Jeffries (D): The new Virginia maps, assuming they pass, are great news for the US House Democratic leader, whose chances of moving up from Minority Leader to Speaker of the House just went up a notch – as long as the Virginia redistricting amendment is okayed by the Virginia Supreme Court and approved by voters. So Jeffries is definitely a big winner today.
2. Democracy: Sure, there are many other threats out there, but for now at least, it looks like Democrats may be successfully beating back one of the biggest ones, which is Trump’s attempt to rig the U.S. House maps so that Republicans are almost guaranteed to hold on to the majority, and lock Democrats out of power indefinitely. That scenario is now looking less and less likely; in fact, if anything, it’s possible that Trump’s anti-democracy strategy could even backfire, depending upon how big a “blue wave” we see this November, potentially leading to “dummymanders” in Texas and elsewhere, as Republican gerrymanders potentially could end up backfiring on them…
3. Shannon Taylor (D): Definitely a big winner; as State Navigate explains: “Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District seems to be ideally drawn for Shannon Taylor. The new 5th contains western Henrico and Chesterfield and parts of Central and Southside Virginia.” Earlier today, Taylor announced that she would, indeed, be running in VA05 (a D+12.8 points district), not VA01 as she had been until now. Plus, the rumors about Taylor potentially getting paired with Tom Perriello, or “screwed over” in some other way(s), turned out to be totally wrong.  So, Taylor’s definitely a winner.
4. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10): As Sam Shirazi explains: VA10 “was about an 8-point Harris district in 2024, and now it becomes a 13-point Harris district in this new map. And essentially, it’s kind of the old 10th district…And I think Suhas Subramanyam is in a strong position. All of his base of Loudoun is in one district held together.” And as State Navigate writes, “Subramanyam (D-Brambleton) will almost assuredly win re-election this November here in this safely Democratic seat.”
5. Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07): As Sam Shirazi explains: “Vindman, who currently represents the 7th district, I think Vindman is going to run in the 1st district. because his home of Prince William County, like the Woodbridge area, most of that is in the first district. And so I think Vindman’s probably going to run in that district if I had to guess. And, you know, both for the primary In the general election, I think Vindman would be the favorite. Now, obviously, they could, someone could run against him in the primary, depending on, you know, what happens. But I do think Vindman overall is is a winner of redistricting.” And as State Navigate writes: “Eugene Vindman will win re-election in this seat.”
6. Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03): Rep. Scott’s district remains overwhelmingly blue (D+36.6 points); as State Navigate writes, he “will coast to re-election this November.”
7. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04): As Sam Shirazi explains: VA04 “was about a 32.5 Harris district in 2024. And the new district is going to be about a 16 point plus Harris district. So still pretty safe blue seat in Virginia…at the end of the day, like Jennifer McClellan still came out on top because she’s got most of Richmond, which is her base. And then the district is still you know pretty blue. And so I don’t really anticipate her her having many much problems in the the primary or the general. So fourth district, not a whole lot to talk about.” Plus, as an added bonus, McClellan got no particular competition in the greater Richmond area.
8. Dan Helmer (D): Helmer has run twice for U.S. House previously – in 2018 and 2024, losing the latter Democratic primary narrowly to Suhas Subramanyam – and he clearly wants to be in the U.S. House, badly. So now, he’s got his chance, with a district that reportedly “was clearly drawn for Delegate Dan Helmer, as no incumbent currently resides in this district, and most of Dan Helmer’s House of Delegates district has been placed here.” Of course, Helmer will have to a) run and; b) win the primary (we’ll see if any strong Democrats get in this race), but as for the new district (VA07), it’s D+8.3 points, so as long as Helmer wins the primary, he should finally get that U.S. House seat he’s been seeking for eight years now.

MIXED

1. Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02):  Luria’s right on the edge of being in the WINNERS category; the only reason she isn’t is that VA02 only shifted very slightly in the blue direction, to just D+4.6, and it could have been drawn a lot bluer. Other than that, though, Luria’s looking great for November against the godawful Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02), who richly deserves to lose for so many reasons (plus, Luria’s a true hero, both for her military service and also for standing up so courageously to Trump, including on the January 6 select committee).
2. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA05): Perriello also could be in the WINNERS category, but he isn’t because he was drawn in to a district with Beth Macy, who has raised a lot of money and has been viewed by many as a strong Democratic candidate against Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06). So now, Perriello will first have to defeat Macy in Democratic primary, before taking on…not sure, actually, but whichever Republican ends up running in the newly drawn VA06, a D+8.6 district.
3. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08): Beyer should be fine in his new district, which as Sam Shirazi describes it: “Under the new lines, completely kind of watered down to Harris plus 18 district. So still very blue, But not as blue as it currently is…this district has become this totally different district, still kind of the base, Democratic base is Northern Virginia…at the end of the day, I think Beyer does have a good shot of winning the primary because it includes all of his base of Alexandria and includes part of Arlington. So I do think even though the district has changed a lot, I think Beyer still is the favorite in this district.”
4. Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA11): As Sam Shirazi writes: “Walkinshaw’s district’s been changed a lot. I still think given that you know most of the district is based in Fairfax County, I still think he has a pretty good shot of winning the primary. And then if he wins the primary, he’s going to be a strong contender in the general election.” So why did I put him in the MIXED category? Mostly because his current district, which is a compact one that’s 100% located in Fairfax County/Fairfax City, has been turned into a gerrymander stretching from near Chain Bridge all the way to the West Virginia border. So Walkinshaw will have to travel a lot more, also introduce himself to a lot of people who don’t know him, just a year after he won the seat in the first place.
5. Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09): Griffith seems like he could be a WINNER, as the already deep-red (one of the reddest districts in the country, despite the fact that Republicans have badly screwed them over), VA09 was made even redder. But I put him in MIXED because, as Sam Shirazi writes, it’s possible that Ben Cline and/or John McGuire might want to run here as well, creating possibly “a pretty crazy primary” between Griffith and/or McGuire and/or Cline. Also note that Griffith lives in Salem, which now will be in VA06, not VA09. So that’s an interesting wrinkle too…not that it stops Griffith from representing VA09, but his opponents could use that against him potentially.
6. Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02): I almost put her in the LOSERS category, because she’s highly likely to lose to former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) this November. The only reason she’s in the MIXED category is because it could have been a lot worse for her; as is, the district only shifted slightly in the blue direction, as opposed to making it completely unwinnable for a Republican. Other than that, though, Kiggans would definitely be in the LOSERS category.
7. State Sen. Lamont Bagby (D): There had been all kinds of rumors and stories that the new map would contain a seat drawn in the Richmond area, with Bagby in mind. That didn’t end up happening, so Bagby won’t be heading to Congress this year at least, but he’s still a State Senator, and it never was a done deal anyway, so not a big loss or anything.
8. State Sen. Russet Perry (D): Similar deal with Perry – there had been rumors and stories that the new map would contain a seat drawn in Loudoun County, with Perry in mind – but as with Bagby, that didn’t happen, so Perry will remain in the State Senate. Also, this is good news if you’re concerned about holding Perry’s state senate seat next year, as this was a fairly competitive seat in 2023 (Perry defeated Juan Pablo Segura by 5.7 points).

LOSERS

1. Donald Trump: Increasingly, it’s looking like Trump pushing red states to gerrymander Democrats into oblivion might not work out that well for him, or could even backfire (badly?), as California and Virginia counterbalance a bunch of the gains Republicans made in Texas, etc., and as recent special election results (e.g., in Texas the other day) indicate a “blue wave” or even “blue tsunami” building for this November, which among other things could mean that Democrats take back the US House regardless of all the red-state gerrymandering, and also could lead to “dummymanders” in Texas and elsewhere, as Republican gerrymanders potentially end up backfiring on them – maybe even by a lot, depending on how large the blue wave turns out to be in November.
2. US House Speaker Mike Johnson: With Democrats’ ‘chances of taking back the US House growing, including with the Virginia blue gerrymander, Johnson’s chances of remaining Speaker of the House after November are falling fast. For what it’s worth, on Kalshi right now, 77% think that Democrats will win the US House in November, and 76% think that Hakeem Jeffries will be the next Speaker of the House. And no, it couldn’t happen to a worse guy than Mike Johnson – a bootlicking coward, fascist, enabler of the destruction of our democracy, etc, etc., and without question one of the worst public figures in U.S. history.
3. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01): As Sam Shirazi writes: “The current incumbent, Rob Wittman, he is going to be one of the losers of Virginia redistricting because his district has gotten a lot… bluer And he doesn’t even really live in this new first district and we’ll talk about it. And so I don’t even know if he’ll run in the first district if it ends up happening.” And as State Navigate writes: “The district now stretches up into Alexandria, [Rep. Don] Beyer’s home. This seat is reliably Democratic though, so Rob Wittman may flat out retire, or see if he can run elsewhere in the Commonwealth.”
4. Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06): As Sam Shirazi writes: “Congressman Ben Cline is in a really tough spot. Obviously, his district has been basically eviscerated. And this new district has been created that is essentially, people have called it a Collegetown District because it goes from Charlottesville and then it goes up to Harrisonburg and Staunton… So you could kind of say that the Democrats have packed a bunch of Democrats into this seat so that the they get a pretty blue seat. Not super blue, but I think in 2026 should be blue enough.”
5. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05): As Sam Shirazi writes: “[McGuire’s current] district is about 12-point Trump district from 2024. Under the new lines, it’s almost a nine-point Harris district. So big swing. Democrats are going to be pretty safe in that seat…t’s been shifted over to the Richmond suburbs. So it’s basically like the Richmond suburbs and then parts of Southside. And, you know, John McGuire is in a pretty tough spot because I don’t really think he can run in this district.” And as State Navigate writes: ” Incumbent Republican John McGuire (R-Goochland) has been drawn out of his seat and is now paired with James Walkinshaw in the new 7th. The 6th is at least somewhat competitive, so, given the district’s makeup, McGuire will likely run here.”
6. Beth Macy (D): As the Cardinal News (Dwayne Yancey) wrote this morning, “Macy gets pitted against Perriello, who has raised more money and whose base in Charlottesville and Albemarle contains twice as many Democratic voters as Macy’s base in the Roanoke Valley…[Perriello]’s now put in a district where many of the voters are strangers to him (unless you count his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2017, where he won every locality in this new district, another reason for Macy to feel disadvantaged).” And as State Navigate writes, “Virginia’s Sixth Congressional District unites the college towns of Virginia, as expected by Election Twitter aficionados who would post their maps to X. Blacksburg, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Roanoke, and rural areas in central and western Virginia are now joined to a seat that will feature a primary that Perriello likely wins against author Beth Macy and potentially Delegate Sam Rasoul.”
7. VA State Senator Tara Durant (R): She already was a longshot against Rep. Eugene Vindman in VA07, but now she pretty much has no chance at all…and nowhere to really go where she might have a shot. Making matters even worse for Durant, she’s in deep trouble in 2027 in the State Senate as well, as her district went by 14 points (!) to Abigail Spanberger in 2025, also to Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024. So…yeah, she’s in deep trouble politically speaking.
8.  The Virginia Redistricting Commmission/1VA2021/etc.: In theory, in an ideal world, having states unilaterally adopt nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting commissions, as Virginia did in 2020, could be a positive thing. But in the actual, real, very-much-NOT-ideal world we live in, having blue states unilaterally disarm while red states race ahead in their efforts to gerrymander Democrats into oblivious is at best naive, at worst brain-dead moronic (or intentional harm to Democrats).  What SHOULD have happened, of course, is that Congress should have passed – and the president signed into law – nonpartisan redistricting requirements for all 50 states, but that didn’t happen. And WHY didn’t it happen? Very simply, because US House and Senate Republicans unanimously opposed the legislation that was supported by Democrats, plus we couldn’t get rid of the Senate filibuster (thanks to Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, etc.), and…here we have it, a “race to the bottom” among the states, instead of passing the For the People Act and doing away with this entire mess for all 50 states – not just unilateral disarmament by the blue states..