Last night in the Texas State Senate 9 (Tarrant County, including a large part of Forth Worth) special election, Democrats saw roughly a 31-point “overperformance,” with Democratic candidate Taylor Rehmet winning by 14+ points in a district won by Trump in 2024 by a whopping 17 points. This isn’t an isolated case, either, as Democrats are Flipping GOP Seats Across the Country, including numerous double-digit swings in the blue direction in 2025-2026 (since Trump was sworn in).
So of course, we can’t ASSUME that Democrats will see “overperformance” levels this November like we saw in Texas last night. But as data-driven journalist G. Elliott Morris says, what we’re seeing is “persuasion (voters breaking hard against Republicans) and Republican dropoff (Trump voters staying home),” and “[w]hile special elections don’t predict the exact margin of a future general election, turnout patterns can be revealing.” And, Morris adds:
“The point is this: A big wave is gathering for 2026. There is at present no question of the existence of this wave, just its height. For Democrats, tonight is another piece of evidence that the 2026 midterms are going to be a good year for them (if the elections are free and fair, which is not guaranteed). The environment could grow more or less favorable for them in the next 9 months.”
So just for fun, what would Virginia’s U.S. House districts look like with 30-point swings in the Democratic direction (source for data: VPAP)?
- VA01: In 2024, Rep. Rob Wittman (R) won reelection (over Democrat Leslie Mehta) by 56.3%-43.5%, a 12.8-point margin. So a 30-point swing in the Democratic direction would mean Wittman would LOSE by 18.2 points. Heck, even a swing half that large (15 points) would mean Wittman would lose by a couple points.
- VA02: In 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) won reelection (over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal) by 50.7%-46.9%, as 2.8-point margin. So a 30-point swing in the Democratic direction would mean Kiggans would LOSE by 27.2 points. And even a MUCH smaller swing in the Democratic direction would mean Kiggans would lose (most likely to former Rep. Elaine Luria).
- VA05: In 2024, John McGuire (R) won election (over Democrat Gloria Witt) by 57.3%-42.3%, a 15-point margin. So a 30-point swing in the Democratic direction would mean that McGuire would LOSE by 15 points. Even half of that swing would mean McGuire quite possibly would lose (to former Rep. Tom Perriello, most likely).
- VA06: In 2024, Rep. Ben Cline (R) won reelection (over Democrat Ken Mitchell) by 63.1%-34.8%, a 28-point margin. So a 30-point swing in the Democratic direction would put this seat very much in play this November. And that’s not even counting any redistricting that makes the seat less “red”/more “blue.”
Again, we can’t count on such large swings in the “blue” direction, but if we even get 10-point, 15-point swings, that could lead to Democrats picking up 2-3 seats in Virginia, from the current 6D-5R U.S. House breakdown to as high as 9D-2R — again, even without redistricting.
