With legislation moving ahead in the Virginia General Assembly to allow for a referendum in Fairfax County on a potential new casino, this morning we got new polling, by BlueLabs for Freedom Virginia, which finds strong opposition by likely Democratic primary voters in VA-07. According to BlueLabs:
- “Primary Democrats in VA-07 overwhelmingly oppose the casino project—even after exposure to positive messaging. Two in three Democratic primary voters in the newly-drawn district oppose the casino at the start (66%), with a plurality strongly opposing the development project (42%). Though support ticks up after exposure to pro-casino messaging focused on tax relief and economic growth (from 21% initial to 32% post-positive), a majority remain opposed (61%). After voters hear arguments from both sides, opposition rebounds to 68%, with the anti-casino messaging winning over more initially undecided Democrats than the pro-casino frame (35% move to oppose vs. 24% to support).”
- “The casino is a pivotal issue for a majority of Democrats in VA-07, with candidate support shifting based on how legislators vote on the proposed bill. More than half of these primary voters reported that they would be less likely to support a candidate if they vote to allow the construction of a casino in Fairfax (54%). On the flip end, 47% are more likely to vote for a candidate who votes against the project.”
- “When presented with more information, more than one in four primary Democrats are susceptible to changing their mind on the casino. While a majority of Democrats in VA-07 remain consistently opposed to the project (55% opposed to the project throughout the survey), nearly 30% shifted their position after exposure to positive or negative messaging—the “susceptible” voters.”
Also, see below for a press release from Freedom Virginia, which says, “Poll after poll has shown that Fairfax County residents do not want a casino, and now new polling confirms that voters across the entire proposed 7th Congressional District feel the same”; and that “Not only are Virginians opposed to the project, but it will also affect who they vote for in the possible midterm primary election. ”
By the way, I haven’t seen any public polling by supporters of the casino, but would definitely be interested in that. For previous polling by opponents of the casino, see here for a survey (of Fairfax County residents; so different sample than this poll, which is of likely VA07 Democratic primary voters) back in October, which found thyat “75% of voters oppose a proposed new casino in Fairfax County.” Anyway…we’ll see what happens when this campaign really gets going, but for now, the available public polling indicates that the casino referendum would at least start off with most voters inclined to oppose it, with a significant plurality STRONGLY opposed. Could those views be changed by a persuasion campaign? Maybe, but of course supporters of the casino will also be pushing their messaging as well, and millions of dollars are likely to be sent both for and against, but it sure seems like a major uphill climb for casino supporters at this point.
Finally, it’s interesting that this poll focused on likely VA07 Democratic primary voters; seems like an effort to push VA07 Democratic candidates to oppose the casino. We’ll see if it works.
P.S. To watch VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax) make the case FOR the casino/entertainment district, see the video following Freedom Virginia’s press release, below.
New Polling Reinforces Strong Opposition to Fairfax Casino Across Proposed VA-07 as Candidate Positions Drive Vote Choice
RICHMOND, Va. — The proposed Fairfax casino continues to be a major opposition point for voters in the newly proposed 7th Congressional District. New polling from BlueLabs continues to show how little voters in both Fairfax County and across the entire new district want a casino, and that they would strongly consider a candidate’s position on it when they vote in the potential upcoming Democratic primary in August.
Among hardline opponents of a casino (55% of voters overall), more than 8 in 10 state that they would be less likely to support a candidate who votes in favor of the casino. More than half of voters reported that they would be less likely to support a candidate if they vote to allow the construction of a casino in Fairfax. In contrast, 47% are more likely to vote for a candidate who votes against the project. Two in three Democratic primary voters, 66%, in the newly-drawn proposed district oppose the casino at the start, with a plurality, 42%, strongly opposing the development project.
With the redistricting fight continuing and candidates beginning to emerge in the possible new VA-07, Freedom Virginia Co-Executive Director Ryan O’Toole released the following statement:
“Poll after poll has shown that Fairfax County residents do not want a casino, and now new polling confirms that voters across the entire proposed 7th Congressional District feel the same. Not only are Virginians opposed to the project, but it will also affect who they vote for in the possible midterm primary election. We have growing evidence that Virginians across the state hope policymakers reject more gaming options and instead focus on measures that directly make life more affordable. We urge legislators in the General Assembly and anyone who is or may be thinking about running in the 2026 midterm elections to listen to the voters, who do not want this. Legislators and candidates should face the affordability crisis head-on and instead support meaningful proposals to cut middle class taxes and lower the cost of healthcare and child care, which is particularly made possible in the Senate’s proposed budget because of their proposed elimination of the data center sales tax exemption that will close a corporate tax loophole and return over $1 billion to Virginians to create a Virginia we can all afford.”
“Fairfax County is a big place. It’s larger than eight states. And it has a diversity of opinions. I represent one part of the county that’s very different from the part of the county that you probably got a lot of emails about. And they opened the MGM Casino across the river from my house. I can walk two blocks and see it. The MGM casino. All the things that the emails you got complained about haven’t happened in my neighborhood or Delegate Krizek’s neighborhood, who lives – I can walk to his house actually too if I wanted to. But all these things you’ve heard about haven’t happened in the last six, seven years. What has happened is that MGM Casino has become the most profitable asset for MGM outside of Las Vegas. It generates over $848 million in gaming revenue a year, which is, I believe, in excess of the five Virginia casinos combined.
And as JLARC found, a project like this on the other side of Fairfax County away from MGM where the state invested $9 billion in a Silver Line and has two interstates, another of which we spent, I don’t know, another four or five billion. Well, we authorized four or five billion. My constituents have to pay $25 tolls to get to work if they choose to work in Tyson’s Corner every morning, $50 both ways to pay for that road. We built all that infrastructure in Tyson’s to be able to absorb this type of density and these kinds of projects because it’s going to be the downtown of Fairfax County where they’re expecting another 100,000 people to move. And so this, you know the people that live there apparently don’t like what the Board of Supervisors authorized years ago when they did the comp plan rewrite and they’re complaining about it.
But this is what was authorized, that this kind of density, this kind of development, and this kind of project will generate $2 billion for school construction statewide, of which many of your districts will benefit from. And it will also generate over a billion dollars of revenue for my county, which by the way is facing a $300 million deficit right now, while the county next door has a $250 million surplus with a tax rate that’s 30% lower. So I think this is a project that’s needed. I think it is statewide significance and there’s a few people that live near the site that are complaining, but 450 people out of 1.4 million is not a lot.
First of all, couple things in response to what I heard. The Tyson’s Corner vacance office vacancy rate is double the national average. That’s what it is right now. It’s the same as DC or Maryland, but it’s double the national average. The buildings are about 25 to 30% vacant. It’s an area that needs more investment. Number one. Number two, in terms of support, I want to remind everybody the board of supervisors has its views that they took a vote when they had a when they had a vacant position on the board of supervisors and the vote was 5 to 4. They didn’t wait for the other person to be sworn in before they decided to take their vote. I’ll also note that the majority of the senators who represent Fairfax County support this bill and have for the last two years now. The bill requires an entertainment district to be constructed, a 1.5 million square foot convention center, entertainment complex, event venue, hotel, not just a casino. Fairfax County is larger than the eight states and doesn’t have a single place you can host a convention. Think about that.
Now, the project, you heard about these revenue numbers being debated. MGM does 850 million a year in in gaming revenue. That’s what it did last year. Most people project this would do better than that. You put it close in Tyson’s Corner, closer to the other part of Maryland. And it would also be funded by about 40% of Marylanders. I want that money back from Maryland. We send $300 million a year to Maryland to pay for their schools because they built that thing right on our border. That’s what got me started on this in 2016. Now, what these what these folks for forget to mention, aside from the fact that if you did a billion dollars in gaming revenue, it would generate 74 million a year for the county alone, they’re not counting real estate taxes. Every $1 billion in in value that you construct on that property generates $1 million of of real estate revenue for the county and doesn’t count sales taxes, meals taxes, hotel taxes, or events taxes, which the county would all benefit from.
I heard talk about residential flight. Fairfax Countyy’s population has gone down in the last 5 years. Look at what UVA Weldon Cooper Center just put out today. Our county has lost population. We need to attract population. In terms of the polling, it was polling by an undisclosed donor, which probably has a big facility right across the river. There’s been mail coming into my district, which is 20 miles away from this, saying that this is going to affect traffic on Route One next to myself and Delegate Krizek’s house. Preposterous nonsense. There’s been anonymous texts sent out from undisclosed donors. There were emails that were sent to you all last year when several of you all replied to the people who sent the emails. They said they didn’t even send the email. I can tell you who’s behind it because last year when they brought the bus, one of the activists admitted the MGM paid for the bus to bring the activist. I’m not saying that happened this year. But MGM has a direct financial interest in stopping this bill. So when you hear all these things, you get all these emails, you get all these texts, you hear all about this so-called polling, just think about the fact there’s a multinational corporation that’s going to lose a lot of money if we authorize this project to benefit our state and our constituents.
At the end of the day, Mr. Mr. Chairman, I would just ask the committee, let the Fairfax County voters decide if they want this or not.”
