With 18 days until the April 21 Virginia redistricting referendum, a new WaPo/Schar poll this morning has the YES side leading by 9 points (53%-44%) among Virginia registered voters, and by 5 points (52%-47% among likely voters. See below for a few more highlights:
- “The poll found 57 percent believe it’s more important for Virginia’s congressional districts to reflect the political makeup of the state compared with 34 percent who say they should balance out other states that were drawn to favor one party. Still, more than a third of those who prefer balanced maps say they nonetheless support the partisan redistricting amendment.”
- “Voters are split on whether it’s fair to create 10 Democratic-leaning districts. Forty-four percent say that would be a fair representation of Virginians’ political preferences while 48 percent say this would be unfair.”
- “Independents with no partisan leaning favor the amendment by a 10-point margin, down from the 20-point margin by which they favored Spanberger last year in the network exit poll. Partisans are largely united in their stance: 91 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would vote yes while 89 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would vote no.”
- “Redistricting’s strongest supporters include women — 60 percent of whom favor the measure versus 46 percent of men — and Black voters, who at 79 percent support are more likely than any other racial group to favor the amendment”
- ” 76 percent of Virginia’s registered voters say they are certain to vote or have already done so, similar to 74 percent just before last November’s gubernatorial election. Early voting rates are almost identical to last year’s election at a similar point”
P.S. Also note, per State Navigate’s model, the early voting so far is D+19.6 points.
![[UPDATED 3/27] With 26 Days Until the Virginia Redistricting Referendum on 4/21, Where Do Things Stand?](https://bluevirginia.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/montageredistricting0326-350x250.jpg)
