- “After being a single-digit Republican-won district for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 cycles, the Virginia Beach-area 2nd District gave Biden 51% of the two-party vote in 2020.“
- “VA-10, which is centered in Loudoun County, began as a light blue district in 2008, barely backed Mitt Romney in 2012, but has since voted more Democratic than the state overall.”
- “On the other end of the state, a similar trend in the opposite direction can be seen in Virginia’s 9th district. In 2008, McCain carried the southwestern VA-9 by less than a 20-point margin. By 2016, Trump had more than doubled that advantage, carrying it by 43 points, and lost only a little ground there in 2020. Though the movement has been less pronounced, VA-6, which contains the Shenandoah Valley and the Roanoke area, has followed a similar path—over the four elections since 2008, GOP margins there have gone up by about 8 points. Aside from those two Appalachian districts, the only other district in the state that became redder since 2008 was the 5th District.”
- “Though the Biden-won, but Republican-held, VA-2 is obviously the Democrats’ most realistic target in the state, VA-1, a consistently Republican district, has become steadily less so since 2008. In 2020, Trump’s 6.7-point margin there represented a double-digit decline from McCain’s 17% margin in the district. This makes VA-1 the bluest trending Republican-held seat in the state.”
In sum: it looks like VA05, VA06 and VA09 are lost causes for Democrats over the foreseeable future, but VA01 could have hope in a few cycles. As for VA02, it’s definitely moved in the “blue” direction, as have VA07 and VA10. So let’s make sure we win VA02 this November (and ditch the deplorable Jen Kiggans) – and of course hold VA07 (where Rep. Abigail Spanberger isn’t running for reelection) and VA10 (where Rep. Jennifer Wexton is retiring due to serious, tragic health issues).
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